Forecasting the Stock Market

Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. "Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months." Right! I have trouble trying to forecast what it will do tomorrow. Do not trust any who claims he knows what the future will be for the market.

Of course, your broker will send you gobs of slick material about various companies that predict they will double or triple in the next 12 months. On the New York Stock Exchange there will be about one half of one per cent (0.5%) of companies that will double this year. Are you smart enough to pick those winners? I'm not and I am considered a professional trader. And I am sure your broker isn't either. He just wants to make a commission and is probably promoting a stock his brokerage company wants to push.

Every investor wants to know the future and will send money to some "expert" who will send him news about a company that only (?) he knows. And pigs can fly. One thing about the market. It is almost impossible to keep a secret and everyone knows everything about other companies. As soon as some "analyst" finds a cogent fact that can influence a stock price he will share that "secret" with a few close friends. Within minutes the "secret" is known by hundreds of thousands and is immediately reflected in the price of the stock.

If you do get sucked into one of these money traps by some smooth-talking salesman or newspaper verbiage I strongly suggest you immediately plan your exit strategy. Without an exit plan you can easily lose a large amount of your "investment". This is not an investment; it is a gamble and should be treated as such. The first thought of any professional trader is 'if I am wrong how much am I willing to lose'? Maybe 2%, 5%, certainly no more than 10%. Pros understand that small losses are OK, but never take a big loss.

From 1982 to 2000 it seemed everyone was a financial genius. How many of those folks kept those big winnings from 2000? Almost none. Most lost 40% to 60% of their money. Brokers said, "Hang in there. You are in for the long haul". Unfortunately he did not tell you that Modern Portfolio Theory is based on a 40 year time line.

Yes, but understand you don't need to predict anything. Don't forecast. What you can easily learn is follow the major trend. You bought in 1982 and you sold out in 2000. The trend can be found in many ways with the simplest being posted every day in Investors Business Daily newspaper under the IBD Mutual Fund Index. When the Index price is above the 200-day moving average you own equities and when it is below you are in cash or bonds. Nothing complicated,

Don't try to forecast the market. Let the market trend tell you.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

In The News:

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Hot and Cold Stocks of Mutual Funds in December 2018  MoneylifeIn December 2018, Axis Bank and ICICI Bank were the most preferred stocks of Indian mutual funds.
Lucky 7! Companies that jumped into large-cap category from midcap in last 6 months of 2018  Moneycontrol.comDuring July-December 2018 period, eight companies fell into the mid-cap category from largecap, 13 moved from small-cap category to mid-cap category.
Mutual funds may need smart bets on smallcap stocks to beat ETF show  Economic TimesSmallcap stocks could see up to ₹1 lakh cr inflow as fund managers look for potential winners: Analysts.
Gold, mutual funds, equity - where to invest in 2019?  Moneycontrol.comAs we enter 2019, the question on everyone's mind is: can we say goodbye to market volatility that 2018 unleashed upon us? The answer may not be that simple ...
Best large & mid cap mutual funds to invest in 2019  Economic TimesThe re-categorisation and rationalisation of mutual funds by Sebi last year created some new categories, including the large & mid cap mutual fund category.
Fund managers' picks: Large, mid & smallcap stocks that MFs bought, sold in Dec  Moneycontrol.comMF assets declined to Rs 22.8 lakh crore in December 2018 from Rs 23.4 lakh core in Nov 2018 on the back of moderation in the flows in equity funds and ...
7 common money myths that are still doing the rounds  Economic TimesInvestors harbour several misconceptions about financial matters. ET Wealth unravels the truth behind them.
Under pressure to perform well, MFs bought & sold these stocks in December quarter  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: With back clearly to the wall after a not so pleasant year for equities, mutual funds (MFs) went about recasting their portfolios a bit in the December ...
Value investing helps to tackle volatility, says Chirag Mehta of Quantum Mutual Fund  Economic TimesValue investing means waiting for the right price to buy stocks --does that mean you would sit on cash? Is there any guideline when it comes to deciding the ...
These 6 big company stocks from small industries look promising  Economic TimesSeveral big names from small industries hold a lot of promise. These companies have efficient managements, strong financials, and are trading at low ...
The Mutual Fund Show: How To Protect Your Investments During Volatility  BloombergQuintOutflows from mutual fund schemes in December is not an aberration and the industry will face some challenges until the election, according to Vijay Mantri of ...
India is set for a good run in 2019, says Reliance Mutual Fund  Moneycontrol.comManish Gunwani, CIO-Equity at Reliance MF, the market is positioned well in terms of valuation and macros.
Mutual funds grabbed stocks as market tanked in December  Yahoo FinanceU.S. mutual fund investors definitely got a scare in December as stocks experienced some of the biggest swings on record, but it appears that smart money used ...
Here Are 4 Advantages Over Mutual Funds You Have As An Individual Investor  ForbesFor many Americans, their sole exposure to the stock market, one of the greatest methods of wealth creation, is through fee-driven mutual funds over which they ...
Here are 2018’s best & worst-performing mutual funds  Economic TimesThe performance of equity mutual funds was uninspiring through most of 2018, with the best-performing fund giving just 6 per cent return for the year. Among the ...
Large-cap and Mid-cap Stocks Top Mutual Fund Schemes Are Betting On  MoneylifeEquity mutual funds (MFs) are run by expert stock-pickers.
SEBI tweaks stock weightage norms for equity ETFs, index funds  Moneycontrol.comIn a circular issued to all mutual funds and asset management companies, SEBI said an index used for equity ETFs or index funds should have at least 10 stocks ...
Budget 2019 to set tone for markets; banks, consumers, cement stocks in focus  Moneycontrol.comConcerns about the deterioration in fiscal deficits ahead of the Lok Sabha election due to populist measures of the government to woo voters prompted FPIs to ...
Jack Bogle changed your life even if you don’t know who he was  Economic TimesBy Ben Steverman Jack Bogle knew how to make a nuisance of himself. “What he meant to most people in the investment business was that he was a royal pain ...
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Mutual Fund Update: Top 5 stocks that MFs sold  Dalal Street Investment JournalMutual funds are institutional investors, the buying and selling transaction of fund houses happen in huge numbers which also affects the stock prices in some or ...
The Top-Performing Mutual Funds Of 2018  BloombergQuintIn a volatile year for stocks, large-cap mutual fund schemes outperformed small- and mid-cap plans tracking the benchmark indices. According to an analysis of ...
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Mutual funds vs Fixed Deposits: How FD investors had the last laugh in 2018  Business TodayInvestors who put their money in safe bets such as bank fixed deposit and gold saw better returns than mutual funds, equity and real estate investors in 2018.
Slideshow | Flashback 2018: 11 stocks that MFs & FIIs pumped money into, but incurred losses  Moneycontrol.comThere are only a handful of stocks where both mutual funds (MFs) and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought into in 2018.
Best Mutual Funds To Invest In: Expect Volatility, Bet On Growth Stocks  Investor's Business DailyLooking for the best mutual funds to invest in? That's likely to depend on a fund manager's 2019 stock market forecast and how he or she is positioning the ...
Dynamic bond funds back to betting on gilts, & with good results  Economic TimesBy Bhavana Acharya Calendar 2018 started out on a cautious note for dynamic bond funds. A tumultuous 2017 saw divided opinion on the direction of interest ...
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It's easy to be an index investor like Jack Bogle, and here's how you can do it  CNBCJack Bogle needed hefty amounts of brainpower and market know-how to put together the first index funds. But for investors wanting to cash in on his idea, it's ...
Value investing is more than buying cheap stocks, says Chirag Mehta of Quantum MF  Economic TimesWhat is value investing? Is it all about buying stocks cheap and waiting patiently to realise its true value? Chirag Mehta, Fund Manager - Alternative Investment, ...
Jack Bogle was the greatest investor who never managed money  MarketWatchInvestors may never see another Jack Bogle. Indeed, they may not have to, because he achieved so much for them.
15 smallcaps that may turn midcaps in Amfi’s new mcap review for MFs  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: At least 15 stocks, currently bracketed in the smallcap basket, might soon be elevated as midcaps by mutual fund lobby Amfi when it publishes its ...
Should I trade stock mutual funds for CDs?  MoneyRates.comMoving out of stock mutual funds into CDs may seem like a good way to manage risk during a volatile market, but wide swings in asset allocation could make ...
Stocks Radar: DCB Bank, HDFC Bank, L&T, Sun Pharma  BloombergQuintIndian equity benchmarks remained subdued in the open even as Asian peers gained on trade hopes, China data. The S&P BSE Sensex rose as much as 0.76 ...
Stocks shed 1,084 points on mutual fund sell-off  DAWN.comKARACHI: Investors stampeded for exit in the outgoing week which saw the KSE-100 index sink by 1,084 points (2.83 per cent). Market experts said it ...
New Year special: Best mutual funds for new investors in 2019  Economic TimesMany individuals firm up their plans to invest in mutual funds in the New Year. And 2019 is not different. Etmutualfunds.com has already started receiving many ...
Sebi brings cybersecurity framework for mutual funds and AMCs  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: Markets regulator Sebi Thursday put in place a robust and stricter cybersecurity framework for mutual funds and asset management companies ...
The 5 Top Vanguard ETFs to Start 2019  The Motley FoolThe Vanguard Group has been a pioneer in the rise of indexing as an investing strategy. Starting out with Jack Bogle's Vanguard 500 Index Fund in 1976, the ...
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Now, wrong investment calls mean bonus cut for debt fund managers  Economic TimesFund managers handling debt schemes whose portfolio gets segregated because of a blundered investment call will have to forgo a portion of their annual ...
U.S. stock funds post record December withdrawals: estimate  ReutersNEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors pulled $98 billion from U.S.-based stock funds in December, a calendar-month record that emphasizes the diminishing ...
11 financial moves that will help you make money in 2019  Economic TimesHere are 11 smart money moves you can make in 2019. These strategies can improve your finances and make your richer in the new year.
Jeffrey Vinik Thinks He Can Beat the Stock-Picking Bots  BloombergQuint(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Stock pickers are striking back. Jeffrey Vinik, who rose to fame as manager of the Fidelity Magellan Fund in the 1990s, told CNBC last ...
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Top 19 for 2019: Stocks that could give double-digit returns in a year  Moneycontrol.comMost experts now feel that India Inc. is on track to register double-digit earnings growth in 2019. If the political environment remains stable, we are on track to hit ...
Take Buffett’s Advice: 5 Vanguard Funds to Buy  Investorplace.comWarren Buffett believes index funds are the way to go for most investors, making these five 'products' from Vanguard Funds worth owning.
Stocks in the news: RIL, Cadila, Bharat Financial, JSW Energy, AAVAS Financiers, CreditAccess  Moneycontrol.comJSW Energy | IDBI Bank | Bharat Financial Inclusion | Tasty Bite Eatables | Infibeam Avenues and AAVAS Financiers are stocks which are in the news today.
5 Best Fidelity Mutual Funds for 2019  Zacks.comThe company provides investment advice, discount brokerage services and wealth management services to its clients.
3 Investing Myths You Shouldn't Believe  The Motley FoolInvesting can be a daunting prospect, whether you're first starting out or have been doing it for years. The truth is that there's a lot of misinformation out there ...
Danger: 2 Losing Stocks I'd Sell Right Now  The Motley Fool CanadaI wouldn't dare touch Cineplex Inc. (TSX:CGX) and one other stock, even with a barge pole.
12 Quotes That Will Make You Rethink Your Personal Finances  The Motley FoolThese bits of wisdom from Warren Buffett, Colin Powell, John Bogle, and others can set you on a straighter path toward financial security.
Is this the right time to invest in the small-cap segment?  LivemintEdelweiss Small Cap Fund offers an added STeP feature that enables investors to benefit from any correction The segment has the potential to outperform ...
7 stocks most favoured by mutual funds over last one year  Economic TimesAs the markets hit a speed bump, stocks favoured by mutual funds appear to be safer bets.
4 Reasons to Roll Over Your 401(k) to an IRA  The Motley Fool401(k)s have a number of advantages over IRAs, including higher contribution limits and the possibility of an employer match, but there are times when you may ...
Stock News: Investors Taking a Second Look at BCB Bancorp, Inc. (NJ) (NASDAQ:BCBP) After Recent Market Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over BCB Bancorp, Inc. (NJ) (NASDAQ:BCBP) as their share price hit $11.07 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stocks in the News: Investors Keen on NextDecade Corporation (:NEXT) as it Makes Waves With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over NextDecade Corporation (:NEXT) as their share price hit $4.55 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Mutual funds bet big on these 30 stocks in November; do you own any?  Moneycontrol.comMF industry assets grew to Rs 23.4 lakh crore, on the back of improved inflows into liquid funds and steady equity markets.
Is your mutual fund buying or selling stocks too much?  LivemintHere are equity mutual fund schemes with the highest turnover.
Broken blue chips: Manulife and Power Financial fight to shake off the effects of a crisis  The Globe and MailThe financial system has largely healed from the financial crisis, but these two stumbling giants of the TSX have not. Inside their plans to turn around their ...
Dollars and Sense: Is market ripe for surprise bear market  Fairfield Daily RepublicSurely this would be the day that politics would weigh on the market. After all, we had sworn testimony from Donald Trump's former lawyer, Michael Cohen, that ...
Stocks in the News: Investors Taking a Second Look at Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN) After Recent Market Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN) as their share price hit $310.05 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stocks in the News: Investors Taking a Second Look at T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS) After Recent Market Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS) as their share price hit $66.25 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stock Review: Investors Focusing on Shares of Sussex Bancorp (NASDAQ:SBBX) as Company Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Sussex Bancorp (NASDAQ:SBBX) as their share price hit $20.9 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stock News: Investors Keen on State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) as it Makes Waves With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) as their share price hit $71.05 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stock Review: Investors Focusing on Shares of KKR & Co. LP (NYSE:KKR) as Company Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over KKR & Co. L.P. (NYSE:KKR) as their share price hit $22.65 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Shares Watch: Investors Taking a Second Look at resTORbio, Inc. (:TORC) After Recent Market Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over resTORbio, Inc. (:TORC) as their share price hit $8.05 at the end of the most recent trading session. Market capitalization ...
Trading Watch: Investors Focusing on Shares of Macro Bank Inc. (NYSE:BMA) as Company Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Macro Bank Inc. (NYSE:BMA) as their share price hit $51.66 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Equity in the News: Investors Keen on Penumbra, Inc. (NYSE:PEN) as it Makes Waves With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Penumbra, Inc. (NYSE:PEN) as their share price hit $138.44 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Trading Watch: Investors Focusing on Shares of Raymond James Financial, Inc. (NYSE:RJF) as Company Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Raymond James Financial, Inc. (NYSE:RJF) as their share price hit $79.85 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stock Review: Investors Focusing on Shares of Praxair, Inc. (ASX:LIN) as Company Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Praxair, Inc. (ASX:LIN) as their share price hit $157.26 at the end of the most recent trading session. Market capitalization ...
Equity Focus: Investors Keen on McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE:MUX) as it Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE:MUX) as their share price hit $1.72 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Fund managers ready to go shopping after sharp correction in stocks  Moneycontrol.comMutual funds that were holding around 8-10 percent cash level in their equity portfolio are likely to purchase shares of companies in banking and financial ...
Trading Focus: Investors Taking a Second Look at Qutoutiao Inc. Sponsored ADR (:QTT) After Recent Market Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Qutoutiao Inc. Sponsored ADR (:QTT) as their share price hit $8.39 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Trend News: Investors Keen on Shares of Insys Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:INSY) as it Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Insys Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:INSY) as their share price hit $4.66 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Shall I buy the HDFC AMC stock or mutual fund?  LivemintThe HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd stock closed 65% up on the first day of listing over its IPO price of ₹ 1,100 per share. Investors who sold on day one, saw ...
Check out what top five mutual funds bought & sold during October selloff  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: Mutual funds stood resilient as industry's asset base increased to Rs 22.23 lakh crore in October in spite of a heavy correction in the domestic ...
Why stopping mutual fund SIPs when stock market falls can jeopardise your financial goals  Economic TimesFear has returned to Dalal Street. Caught in a perfect storm of weak macroeconomic numbers, the IL&FS crisis and fear of more defaults, equity markets have ...
Mutual funds' exposure to banks hits 3-month low of Rs 1.88 lakh crore in Sept  Economic TimesMutual funds' holding of banking stocks declined by over Rs 21,600 crore to Rs 1.88 lakh crore in September, driven by the correction in equity markets.
Five stocks that mutual funds think can outperform  Economic TimesA volatile month gave fund managers a chance to cherry-pick stocks.
Mutual funds that destroyed most investor wealth in the September selloff  Economic TimesThe recent selloff in the stock market has raised fears of a rush for redemption in mutual funds.​
Value focussed MF are cutting their exposure to Indian stocks. What about you?  Moneycontrol.comAs valuations climb, the funds have chosen to stay light on Indian stocks and exposure to bonds and arbitrage has gone up.
When should you sell your mutual fund schemes? - Stocks and equity mutual funds are different  Economic TimesInvesting in an individual stock and equity mutual fund scheme is different. You must look at various parameters like key ratios while investing in a stock. Hence ...
How stocks picked by mutual funds over 2014 to 2017 have performed  Economic TimesWhile the most wanted stocks of 2014 and 2015 have done well, the recent picks have disappointed.
Mutual fund lesson: What should you do in volatile markets?  Moneycontrol.comCost of investing in equities is that it is a volatile asset class- there will be times when your portfolio value will be lower than what you invested.
Why your mutual fund earned you less than Nifty in recent market rally  Economic TimesThe more the number of stocks in an index, the weaker is its performance.
Are mid and small-cap mutual funds holding too many illiquid stocks?  Economic TimesLiquidity has been scarce in Indian capital markets in recent weeks. Mutual funds have also not been spared the pain, with liquid and money market funds ...
How your mutual funds played the balancing act during stocks crash  Economic TimesBy Bhavana Acharya The last three months has been a bumpy ride for largecap stocks. The year so far has been unkind to the midcap and smallcap set.
Investing in equity mutual funds versus investing in shares: Which is better?  Economic TimesBy Dhirendra Kumar Hopefully, by now my columns have convinced you that most of your long-term investments should be in equity. The next question to be ...
Is it a good time to invest in small-cap mutual fund schemes?  Economic TimesDespite the slide in the Nifty Smallcap100 index, fund houses seem to be placing faith in small-cap funds again. Should investors take the cue?
Best mutual funds to invest in India  Times of IndiaFAQs News: Market analyst says that it would be difficult for investors to get high returns in 2018 pointing to the volatility faced by the stock market. The inv.
Picking the best mutual fund: Are past returns relevant after re-categorisation?  Moneycontrol.comWhile selecting a scheme for investment or while deciding whether to continue with a current investment, a fund's performance track record does play a critical ...
New stock ideas boost equity mutual fund portfolios  LivemintIt is imperative for mutual fund houses to beef up their research capabilities, to be able to identify more winning new ideas.
Mutual fund holdings in IT stocks touch all-time high  Economic TimesMumbai: Fund managers are betting big on the IT sector, on the back of an improving global macro environment, depreciating rupee and rise in IT spends.
Top 10 mutual funds which can double your wealth in long term  The Financial ExpressMutual funds are one of the most popular and smart ways for investors to build wealth over the long term. One can also double one's money, if planned properly.
How do mutual funds help you to invest better?  Moneycontrol.comMutual funds can provide you products that can meet your financial goals with relatively lesser risk.
Why HDFC Bank stock is among the top picks of mutual funds  Business TodayPrivate sector lender HDFC Bank, the third-largest Indian firm by market capitalisation, is among the favourite stocks in the portfolios of mutual funds. Despite ...

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