Acapulco - The Stock Market Dives

There is a famous cliff on the ocean in Acapulco where experienced divers jump into the sea. It is very dangerous because the water at the base of the cliff surges from a depth of 2 feet to 12 feet. The diver must time his leap so the water is at the greatest depth when he enters or he could easily be killed as many novices before him have been. Timing is the key.

This reminds me of the stock market where timing is also the key to wealth or poverty.

The ocean waves surge in and out against the cliff in short cycles. The tide moves in and out in longer cycles and is very predictable. When you look at Nature you will see there are relatively predictable cycles everywhere. We see day become night, the changes of the seasons and birth to death of our own bodies. Some changes are so microscopically small we cannot see them and others are so long we are not aware they are taking place. Everything has a season or a cycle. It is up to us to be able recognize it and use it to our advantage.

People ask why did the stock market go up (down) today? These short moves can usually be laid to some recent event. Then there are longer surges and regressions of months or a few years. We have bull markets and bear markets that seem to have historical cycles that last decades. These latter cycles run for about 16 to 18 years and move similar to the surges of the sea against the Acapulco cliff. A knowledgeable market timer will buy when the water is out (stocks look their worst) and hit the ocean (sell) as the surge is at its highest.

The ability to do this is NOT guess work. It is an understanding that cycles apply equally as well to the stock market as they do to the forces of Nature. Unfortunately, the principles to learn this very simple technique are not taught in college. Most must learn the method in the school of hard knocks. It can be very expensive.

In our recent bull market from 1982 to 2000 we had one of the predictable long cycles. The mindset of the public has become so hardened to the bull concept that they (and almost all brokers) have forgotten that each up surge is followed by a down surge of approximate equal length. This is not very comforting to current owners of stocks and mutual funds, but once they realize it they can do the prudent thing to protect their money - sell. Then they can buy U.S. Treasury bonds and wait for the next bull market to arrive. It is not very exciting to be in cash, but it is much better than seeing your money slowly disappearing before your eyes.

You must learn entry and exit of the stock market just as the divers in Acapulco have learned the correct moment to jump off the cliff.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

In The News:

This RSS feed URL is deprecated, please update. New URLs can be found in the footers at https://news.google.com/news

Money Magazine

If You Own a Mutual Fund, You Could Face an Unexpected Tax Bill This Year
Money Magazine
Despite the fact that the market is up only about 1% for 2018, investors in many funds could end up owing taxes on gains those funds realized by trading stocks or other securities throughout the year. That includes several funds from Vanguard — the ...


Investorplace.com

5 Vanguard Mutual Funds to Depend On
Investorplace.com
Risk-averse investors should note that VIHAX devotes just over 20% of its weight to emerging markets stocks, so this may not be suitable for extremely conservative investors looking for mutual funds to buy. However, eight of this Vanguard fund's top 10 ...


New York Times

The Market's Been Falling. I'm Putting My Money in Stocks Anyway.
New York Times
The stock market has been plummeting and my own retirement portfolio has been shrinking. Am I worried? Sure. But I'm still buying stocks. Week after week lately, I've been stubbornly funneling part of my paycheck into diversified equity mutual funds in ...


NJ.com

Avoiding the mutual fund tax trap | Rossi
NJ.com
2018 has been a year of mixed investment results for many investors. As a result, many asset classes year to date declines. Despite the fact that some stock investors may have lost money within some of their mutual fund investments, many will be ...


AppleInsider

Big mutual funds loaded up on AAPL in Q3, some now worrying about growth
AppleInsider
Even smaller funds got in the act. Coatue Management grew its Apple stock holdings to over 884,000 shares, and Tiger Global Management now has over one million shares. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway increased its position in Apple by 522,802 ...

and more »

After Sour October, Fund Managers Gird For More Volatility, Trim Stocks
Investor's Business Daily
Ouch! That summarizes the shrinking performance by the stock market and U.S. diversified stock mutual funds in October. The stock market forecast? Fearing volatility ahead, money managers and strategists are flashing yellow warning signs about the ...


Planning for mutual fund capital gains
Foster's Daily Democrat
It's year-end tax planning time, and this year it may pay off more than ever to take a close look at the mutual funds in your portfolio to ensure there are no surprises when filing your 2018 tax return. The long bull market in stocks has many actively ...


Emerald Mutual Fund Advisers Trust Takes Position in Cutera, Inc. (NASDAQ:CUTR)
Fairfield Current
Emerald Mutual Fund Advisers Trust bought a new position in Cutera, Inc. (NASDAQ:CUTR) in the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund bought 142,537 shares of the medical device ...

and more »

Fusion Telecommunications International, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSNN) Shares Sold by Emerald Mutual Fund Advisers Trust
Fairfield Current
The firm owned 481,964 shares of the Wireless communications provider's stock after selling 51,370 shares during the period. Emerald Mutual Fund Advisers Trust owned about 0.61% of Fusion Telecommunications International worth $1,239,000 at the end ...

and more »

AZCentral.com

Health savings accounts can be a great way to save for retirement costs
AZCentral.com
Those who invested in growth vehicles like stock mutual funds and let their money compound had higher balances on average, according to the study. Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds are especially good choices for small HSA balances, providing ...

and more »
Google News

Expense Ratios

Mutual funds and brokers are always preaching not to buy... Read More

Trading as a Business

What can I expect to make my first year of... Read More

My Stock - Right or Wrong

We all know the expression, "My country, right or wrong",... Read More

How to Maximize Your 401k Mutual Fund Returns

When it comes to 401k's there is an overabundance of... Read More

The Seven Mistakes All Novice Traders Make and How to Correct Them

We learnt the following the hard way! If any of... Read More

How Eating Bitumen Made Me a Better Trader

Trading is a fascinating activity.There are so many layers to... Read More

Hot Stock Investing ... How to Pick Hot Stocks with Momentum Stock Trading

Profitable day traders recognize that momentum trading is among the... Read More

Market Psychology

Today we are inundated with tons of information about the... Read More

Shorting Stocks ? The Basics, Part I of II

What does it mean to short a stock?This means that... Read More

What is the Most Important Indicator of All?

Most stock market traders have a favorite technical indicator.The one... Read More

Successful Trading ? Taking Profits - Part 1

So you're started trading, you bought some positions with your... Read More

VooDoo Training For the Stock Market

If you go to Haiti or other places in the... Read More

Lemmings Are Gathering

Before they go over the cliff to their destruction these... Read More

Analyzing Growth Stocks: An Important Focus For Any Investor

Analyzing growth stocks is an important focus for any investor.... Read More

Mutual Fund Expense Lies

When purchasing mutual funds we are cautioned to read the... Read More

Long-Term Investment In Todays Market?

The stock market is very unstable at this time going... Read More

Its Snowing

The Winter Games for the Olympics are coming up soon... Read More

Smart Day Trading Strategies to Help You Make Money in the Stock Market

Stock trading can be a very profitable activity. You can... Read More

Stock Market Insanity

Let's first define insanity. It is doing the same thing... Read More

Stock Trading Diversification

This is the continuing story of our two imaginary traders,... Read More

The Top 10 Reasons to Invest in Mutual Funds

Everyone who follows the financial news has heard of mutual... Read More

Market Globalization

Just 30 years ago the stock market was a shadow... Read More

The Shadow

The Shadow knows. There used to be a radio program... Read More

Risk Control

Everything you invest in has risk so you want to... Read More

Hill of Hope

Just about now everyone is confused as to which way... Read More