Buying New Issues

Has your broker been calling you recently with the "great opportunity" to get in on a new Initial Public Offering? With friends like that you don't need any enemies.

I don't care how good this new stock offering sounds. The chances it will stay even or go up are about 1 in 3 and I don't want to play those odds with my money.

Most of the new IPOs these days are from the technology sector. That is where the romance and big money has been, but the NASDAQ topped out on March 10 this year. It is a good idea to take a look at what has happened to these new offerings since that time.

The S&P500 Index has dropped only 3% since March 10 while the NASDAQ Composite has fallen 43%. Here are a couple of numbers you will want to remember for the rest of your life if you have any interest in the stock market. Sixty percent of the move in any stock is due to the category or sector it is in. Twenty percent of a stock price is due to the overall market movement and 20% is caused by the quality of the company itself. You can immediately recognize that even if you have bought the best stock it has only a 1 in 5 chance of going up if the other 2 factors are not working for you. Since March 10 the New Issues Index is down 67%.

With all the major market indexes in the sewer there is little hope for ever finding one of those new issues that comes out at $10 and runs up to $200. Those days are gone forever - at least in the technology field. The NASDAQ has a better chance of going to 1500 before it ever goes back to 5000.

For the next year, maybe longer, we are going to see the number of new issues dry up and almost disappear. And there are many other good reasons other than the overall market. In a new issue you have no idea how the company will perform. Will management make its projected goals? Is there any possibility of a profit? You have no track record for their price performance. Will the stock price trend up or down? The more of these unknowns you throw into the mix the less chance there is that the stock will go up.

Last year we had a raging bull charging through fences and tearing everything up and we all loved it. All we had to do was follow the bull. The bear has taken his place and is ruining the landscape. And you know what bears do in the woods. Be careful where you step - or put your money.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

[email protected]; 1-888-345-7870

In The News:

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These are fertile grounds for long-term stock pickers, says Samir Rachh of Reliance Mutual Fund  Economic TimesSmall cap funds are going through a rough patch after a bull run in 2017. etmutualfunds.com spoke to Samir Rachh, fund manager, Reliance Small Cap Fund, ...
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Why HDFC Bank stock is among the top picks of mutual funds  Business TodayPrivate sector lender HDFC Bank, the third-largest Indian firm by market capitalisation, is among the favourite stocks in the portfolios of mutual funds. Despite ...
Fund managers raised stake in 194 stocks in Dec quarter. Is it a good idea to follow them?  Moneycontrol.comFund managers raised stake in as many as 194 companies in the December quarter as compared to the previous quarter. Stocks of some these companies have ...
Shall I buy the HDFC AMC stock or mutual fund?  LivemintThe HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd stock closed 65% up on the first day of listing over its IPO price of ₹ 1,100 per share. Investors who sold on day one, saw ...
Here’s a better tool to judge mutual fund performance than simple 1-year, 3-year returns  Economic TimesOne invests in mutual funds to earn potentially higher returns than those in traditional investment products, and I'm sure everyone looks at the one-year, ...
Private banks, oil & gas companies find favour among fund managers  Moneycontrol.comMoneycontrol News. The month gone by saw a notable change in sector and stock allocation of funds from the mutual fund industry. On a month-on-month ...
Large cap index mutual funds continue to outshine actively-managed large cap schemes  Economic TimesLarge cap index funds are outperforming the actively-managed large cap mutual fund schemes in the past one-year period. Kotak NV 20 ETF is topping the ...
What Type of Mutual Fund Schemes Should You Invest in? Know Here  News18Equity funds are mutual funds which invest majorly in equity stocks of listed companies. They are considered to be risky but they tend to give higher returns in the ...
Mutual funds may need smart bets on smallcap stocks to beat ETF show  Economic TimesSmallcap stocks could see up to ₹1 lakh cr inflow as fund managers look for potential winners: Analysts.
Why do wealth managers recommend multi cap mutual funds?  Economic TimesMany wealth managers believe multi-cap funds are a good starting point for long-term investors, specially those using SIPs for wealth creation.
BJP’s Amit Shah has diversified stock investment portfolio; Rahul Gandhi prefers mutual funds  Economic TimesShah held shares worth Rs 17.56 cr as of March 22, while Gandhi has MFs worth Rs 5.19 cr.
Small- and mid-cap mutual funds open doors again, but should you invest?  LivemintL&T Emerging Businesses Fund and DSP Small Cap Fund have allowed *fresh* mutual fund investments, taking advantage of a continued correction in small- ...
Mutual funds' exposure to banks hits 3-month low of Rs 1.88 lakh crore in Sept  Economic TimesMutual funds' holding of banking stocks declined by over Rs 21,600 crore to Rs 1.88 lakh crore in September, driven by the correction in equity markets.
How stocks picked by mutual funds over 2014 to 2017 have performed  Economic TimesWhile the most wanted stocks of 2014 and 2015 have done well, the recent picks have disappointed.
Debt mutual funds with Zee exposure send investors into a tizzy  Economic TimesMUMBAI: Worries about the prospects of debt mutual funds holding securities of Subhash Chandra's Essel Group entities have resurfaced after Kotak Mutual ...
How diversified should a mutual fund be?  LivemintDiversification is an important parameter to evaluate a mutual fund portfolio. A diversified portfolio implies lower risk since the poor performance of one or a few ...
As equity mutual funds' returns turn negative, debt outperforms  Economic TimesGains of 13% in the Sensex have not benefited equity fund investors, for whom returns in traditional debt funds investing in government bonds may have been ...
Mirae Asset Focused Fund - A new focused equity mutual fund in the multi-cap space  LivemintThe NFO or new fund offer of the Mirae Asset Focused Fund has opened for subscription. The NFO will close on May 7. The fund will invest in a basket of 30 ...
Why it is a bad idea to always look for outperformers while investing in mutual funds  Economic TimesOne of the most important features that any investor, wealth adviser or anyone in the financial media looks for in an investment product is its track record in ...

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