Dont Fight The Fed

One of the great truisms of Wall Street is "Don't fight the Fed". For the long term investors this has resulted in greater profits. When the Federal Reserve Board hikes interest rates look out and when the do it 3 times in a row it is called "3 jumps and a stumble". We have just gone through the stumble and it has been costly.

When you go back in history you will find that the stock market has almost always gone down substantially after the Fed has jumped interest rates 3 time in a row. As of this writing the Fed has lowered rates twice and we are looking for a third cut very soon. When that happens you will know that there is very little likelihood of the market going lower.

The stock market moves more on anticipation than fact. Another old saying is "Buy the rumor and sell the news". Because of what Mr. Greenspan has done we anticipate the market will rally and the rumor is he will do it again so we have two reasons to think that stock prices will move higher. He caused all this mess and now we look to him as our savior. It should be as the Queen of Hearts said, "Off with his head". Unfortunately he is appointed and cannot be removed from office even by the President. Just don't give him undo credit for lowering interest rates when he should not have raised them in the first pace.

For the smart long term investors when they see the Fed raising interest rates they should immediately pay attention top their stock and mutual fund holdings with the idea of selling them and placing the funds in a money market account. The investors won't be making any capital gains, but they also won't be standing in front of the train as it comes barreling down the track and runs them over. No, you don't have to sell immediately as it takes several months for interest rate increases to take effect - usually about 9 months.

When rates are lowered there will also be a time lag of 6 to 12 months which gives you opportunity to start picking some winners for the next bull market. Forget that Wall Street conventional wisdom of "do your research". Research is basically worthless. If you can find it out then everyone else already knows it and it has been reflected in the price of the stock. Let me give you a method that is too simple for your broker. He will tell you it won't work except it does.

Every Friday there is a listed in Investor's Business Daily on the back page about 40 charts of the week's best performing stocks. Notice they are all in uptrends. You could buy almost any one of these and check it weekly to see that it remains in the trend. When it falls out, sell it.

There are other equally simple methods your broker will not recommend. They want to keep the Wall Street mystique. Once you find out how easy it is to make money you won't need them. It is your money. Are you willing to work a little to make it grow?

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

[email protected]; 1-888-345-7870

In The News:

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Hot and Cold Stocks of Mutual Funds in October 2018  MoneylifeIn October 2018, Axis Bank and ICICI Bank were the most preferred stocks of Indian mutual funds. The net purchases of Axis Bank were Rs1,504 crore, of which ...
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Is it a good time to invest in small-cap mutual fund schemes?  Economic TimesDespite the slide in the Nifty Smallcap100 index, fund houses seem to be placing faith in small-cap funds again. Should investors take the cue?
How your mutual funds played the balancing act during stocks crash  Economic TimesBy Bhavana Acharya The last three months has been a bumpy ride for largecap stocks. The year so far has been unkind to the midcap and smallcap set.
Mutual fund lesson: What should you do in volatile markets?  Moneycontrol.comCost of investing in equities is that it is a volatile asset class- there will be times when your portfolio value will be lower than what you invested.
Why HDFC Bank stock is among the top picks of mutual funds  Business TodayPrivate sector lender HDFC Bank, the third-largest Indian firm by market capitalisation, is among the favourite stocks in the portfolios of mutual funds. Despite ...
Mutual fund holdings in IT stocks touch all-time high  Economic TimesMumbai: Fund managers are betting big on the IT sector, on the back of an improving global macro environment, depreciating rupee and rise in IT spends.
Mutual Funds For First Time Manage More Money In Stocks Than Insurers  BloombergQuintMutual funds for the first time manage more money in equities than insurers as the last stock rout erased the gap that started narrowing after demonetisation.
Does it make sense to invest in mutual funds when the markets are down?  Economic TimesI am looking to invest Rs 20,000 per month via SIP in mutual funds for an investment period of more than 20 years. The idea is to maximize wealth to use for my ...
Bleeding mutual funds: Should you go back to good old fixed deposits?  Moneycontrol.comAre you worried about the losses on your investments in mutual fund schemes? You are not alone. There are many investors who dumped their good old fixed ...
Investing in equity mutual funds versus investing in shares: Which is better?  Economic TimesThe final goal for all stock investors is the same: to get superior returns. However, in terms of what you do, there are two completely different routes.
Fund managers' bets: Top 10 large, mid and small-cap stocks that MFs bought in October  Moneycontrol.comMF industry assets grew to Rs 22.2 lakh crore on the back of improved inflows into equity-oriented and liquid funds.
Top 10 wealth creator mutual fund schemes of 2018  Moneycontrol.comThe IT sector has been riding on good earnings show by the IT giants in India. The depreciating rupee is in the last few years boosted the fortunes of the ...
Do not make these 7 mistakes while investing in mutual funds  Moneycontrol.comNever forget that you are investing because you have to achieve your financial goals. Investing without a goal is akin to travelling without a destination.
Top 10 mutual funds which can double your wealth in long term  The Financial ExpressMutual funds are one of the most popular and smart ways for investors to build wealth over the long term. One can also double one's money, if planned properly.
Mutual funds that destroyed most investor wealth in the September selloff  Economic TimesThe recent selloff in the stock market has raised fears of a rush for redemption in mutual funds.​
See how they play market crash! MFs sold other stocks to lap up these 21 in October mayhem  Economic TimesPopular beaten-down stocks attracted big money from institutional investors on Dalal Street in October, when the domestic equity market was facing severe ...
Picking the best mutual fund: Are past returns relevant after re-categorisation?  Moneycontrol.comWhile selecting a scheme for investment or while deciding whether to continue with a current investment, a fund's performance track record does play a critical ...
Top 10 large, mid and smallcap stocks which fund managers bought & sold in September  Moneycontrol.comFears of a liquidity crunch following the IL&FS crisis hit the mutual fund industry in September. Cash plans, or liquid funds, were the worst hit.
These 18 consistent mutual funds may help you to beat stock market volatility  Economic TimesMany equity mutual fund advisors abhor volatility in the stock market. They are always searching for ways to tackle this beast which gives them sleepless nights.
These 10 stocks make up over one-third of entire mutual fund portfolio in India; check full list  The Financial ExpressEven as Sensex and Nifty continue their strong rally driven by a cheer in blue chip stocks, just 10 top names make up a whopping 34% of the entire mutual fund ...
How do mutual funds help you to invest better?  Moneycontrol.comMutual funds can provide you products that can meet your financial goals with relatively lesser risk.
Why your mutual fund earned you less than Nifty in recent market rally  Economic TimesThe more the number of stocks in an index, the weaker is its performance.
Should you shift from large-cap mutual funds to index funds?  Economic TimesThe index fund category of mutual fund schemes is slowly gaining traction among investors. The fortunes of index funds are changing as not only are they being ...
Value focussed MF are cutting their exposure to Indian stocks. What about you?  Moneycontrol.comAs valuations climb, the funds have chosen to stay light on Indian stocks and exposure to bonds and arbitrage has gone up.
Some international funds are giving around 40% returns. Should you invest?  Economic TimesInternational mutual funds are topping the return charts. The category has returned around 20 per cent in one year. Should retail investors bet on these schemes ...
Planning an SIP in mutual funds? Keep these things in mind  Moneycontrol.comYou should identify a fund which has not only performed well when the markets are rising but also tackled the tides of a falling market and has controlled losses.
Here are top buys and sells by mutual funds in August when Sensex, Nifty hit record highs  Moneycontrol.comAmong largecaps, HDFC AMC, Sun TV Network, TVS Motor, Vedanta and Tech Mahindra topped the August buying list of top 10 mutual fund houses which ...

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