Hill of Hope

Just about now everyone is confused as to which way the stock market is going to go - up or down. For the past 3 years it has been headed south, but the Wall Street experts have told us that the market never goes down 4 years in a row so this has to be an up year. But no guarantees.

The old saying is that the stock market climbs a wall of worry. We watch sharp moves up followed by days, sometimes weeks of weakness and then another shot to higher prices. From 1982 to 2000 this went on until we absolutely, positively knew it was going to continue forever. The current mindset is you can't lose if you just "hang in there". Mr. Average-stockholder has lost about 50% of his money so far and has chewed his fingernails to the nub. Now what?

I hope you don't need a house to fall on you to realize we are in a long-term bear market, one that could last for years. In a bear market the action is exactly opposite what you see in a bull market - sharp declines followed by slow agonizing rallies that don't quite make it back to the previous high prices. This is called climbing the Hill of Hope. This is a slippery hill to which you will not make it to the top. Hope is the most expensive word in an investor's lexicon.

The smartest (?) analysts (?) and talking heads on TV continue to tell us the market always comes back - if you live long enough. They fail to tell you that every bull market is followed by a bear market of about equal length. This last bull ended after 18 years and if cycles repeat we have 15 more years of the downward path to follow. I know - "this time it is different". Let's hope so, but I don't want to have my money on hope.

The DOW Industrial Index has been down 3 years in a row and only once in history has it gone down 4 times to newer lows. Did you know that the DOW Transportation Index has been down 5 years straight? Can there possibly be a sixth year? Your answer is as good as mine.

There has recently been some liquidation of mutual funds from 401Ks and IRAs, but the amount is small. It has been reported that there is about 3 trillion (with a T) in mutual funds. The talking heads speak of 10 and 20 billion leaving the so-called "safe haven". As a percentage of total assets this is a spit. One of these days not too far in the future (probably this year) investors will suddenly get the idea to head for the door. And they all seem to do it about the same time like lemmings headed over the cliff.

This will look like a major bottom in the market - and it might be if the P/E ratio can get down to around 10 or less. Until it does they will still be trying, unsuccessfully, to climb that Hill of Hope.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

In The News:

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Fund managers' bets: Top 10 large, mid and small-cap stocks that MFs bought in October  Moneycontrol.comMF industry assets grew to Rs 22.2 lakh crore on the back of improved inflows into equity-oriented and liquid funds.
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Why your mutual fund earned you less than Nifty in recent market rally  Economic TimesThe more the number of stocks in an index, the weaker is its performance.
These 10 stocks make up over one-third of entire mutual fund portfolio in India; check full list  The Financial ExpressEven as Sensex and Nifty continue their strong rally driven by a cheer in blue chip stocks, just 10 top names make up a whopping 34% of the entire mutual fund ...
Investing in mutual funds? Diversify to reduce risks and enhance returns  Moneycontrol.comIn the worst of the times for stock markets, individuals invested across the asset classes are less hit as compared to investors betting all their money on stocks.
How do mutual funds help you to invest better?  Moneycontrol.comMutual funds can provide you products that can meet your financial goals with relatively lesser risk.
Top 10 large, mid and smallcap stocks which fund managers bought & sold in September  Moneycontrol.comFears of a liquidity crunch following the IL&FS crisis hit the mutual fund industry in September. Cash plans, or liquid funds, were the worst hit.
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These 18 consistent mutual funds may help you to beat stock market volatility  Economic TimesMany equity mutual fund advisors abhor volatility in the stock market. They are always searching for ways to tackle this beast which gives them sleepless nights.
India is set for a good run in 2019, says Reliance Mutual Fund  Moneycontrol.comManish Gunwani, CIO-Equity at Reliance MF, the market is positioned well in terms of valuation and macros.
Mutual funds data show market is running out of fuel  Moneycontrol.comThe sharp fall in net equity mutual fund inflows in December 2018 is a cause of worry.
Some international funds are giving around 40% returns. Should you invest?  Economic TimesInternational mutual funds are topping the return charts. The category has returned around 20 per cent in one year. Should retail investors bet on these schemes ...
Here are top buys and sells by mutual funds in August when Sensex, Nifty hit record highs  Moneycontrol.comAmong largecaps, HDFC AMC, Sun TV Network, TVS Motor, Vedanta and Tech Mahindra topped the August buying list of top 10 mutual fund houses which ...
Planning an SIP in mutual funds? Keep these things in mind  Moneycontrol.comYou should identify a fund which has not only performed well when the markets are rising but also tackled the tides of a falling market and has controlled losses.
How to build your mutual fund portfolio from scratch  Moneycontrol.comYou need to know that there is no such thing as a "perfect mutual fund portfolio". There can be numerous reasonably good portfolios, and there's no ...
Best large cap mutual funds to invest in 2019  Economic TimesHere's a monthly update on our recommended large cap mutual funds to invest in 2019. The good news is that there is no change in the recommendations.
Why liquidity offered by mutual funds is good for you  Moneycontrol.comYou may come across emergencies which warrant sudden requirement of cash. In such a situation, mutual funds come in handy.
Choose your mobile app wisely to invest in direct mutual funds  Moneycontrol.comSome mobile apps are not updated on regular basis. Often there may be errors in the stocks portfolio of several schemes.
Top 10 wealth creator mutual fund schemes of 2018  Moneycontrol.comThe IT sector has been riding on good earnings show by the IT giants in India. The depreciating rupee is in the last few years boosted the fortunes of the ...
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala`s success mantra: How to make money with Mutual Fund SIP, stock trading  Zee BusinessRakesh Jhunjhunwala's success mantra: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is an inspiration for all aspiring stock traders or investors. The investment wizard's tips, his ...
Should investors worry about P/E ratio of mutual funds?  Economic TimesPrice to earnings or P/E ratio is an important parameter in the world of stocks. Some pundits believe that it is time mutual fund investors start taking the P/E ratio ...
FIIs, MFs bet on 138 stocks in last 1 year; should you buy?  Moneycontrol.comOut of the 138 stocks which witnessed increase in weightage on a year-on-year basis, as many as 14 stocks saw a correction of 20-80 percent in the last 1 year.

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