Hill of Hope

Just about now everyone is confused as to which way the stock market is going to go - up or down. For the past 3 years it has been headed south, but the Wall Street experts have told us that the market never goes down 4 years in a row so this has to be an up year. But no guarantees.

The old saying is that the stock market climbs a wall of worry. We watch sharp moves up followed by days, sometimes weeks of weakness and then another shot to higher prices. From 1982 to 2000 this went on until we absolutely, positively knew it was going to continue forever. The current mindset is you can't lose if you just "hang in there". Mr. Average-stockholder has lost about 50% of his money so far and has chewed his fingernails to the nub. Now what?

I hope you don't need a house to fall on you to realize we are in a long-term bear market, one that could last for years. In a bear market the action is exactly opposite what you see in a bull market - sharp declines followed by slow agonizing rallies that don't quite make it back to the previous high prices. This is called climbing the Hill of Hope. This is a slippery hill to which you will not make it to the top. Hope is the most expensive word in an investor's lexicon.

The smartest (?) analysts (?) and talking heads on TV continue to tell us the market always comes back - if you live long enough. They fail to tell you that every bull market is followed by a bear market of about equal length. This last bull ended after 18 years and if cycles repeat we have 15 more years of the downward path to follow. I know - "this time it is different". Let's hope so, but I don't want to have my money on hope.

The DOW Industrial Index has been down 3 years in a row and only once in history has it gone down 4 times to newer lows. Did you know that the DOW Transportation Index has been down 5 years straight? Can there possibly be a sixth year? Your answer is as good as mine.

There has recently been some liquidation of mutual funds from 401Ks and IRAs, but the amount is small. It has been reported that there is about 3 trillion (with a T) in mutual funds. The talking heads speak of 10 and 20 billion leaving the so-called "safe haven". As a percentage of total assets this is a spit. One of these days not too far in the future (probably this year) investors will suddenly get the idea to head for the door. And they all seem to do it about the same time like lemmings headed over the cliff.

This will look like a major bottom in the market - and it might be if the P/E ratio can get down to around 10 or less. Until it does they will still be trying, unsuccessfully, to climb that Hill of Hope.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

In The News:

Here are the mutual fund favourites in April  MoneycontrolMaximum month-on-month change in value was seen in TCS, ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
A young investor’s guide to mutual funds  Economic TimesMany young investors, who are barely a year or two old in their career, are eager to start investing in mutual funds. ETMutualFunds.com receive many queries on ...
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Sebi allows mutual funds in exchange traded commodity derivatives  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Tuesday allowed mutual funds to participate in exchange-traded commodity derivatives ...
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Hot and Cold Stocks of Mutual Funds in April 2019  MoneylifeIn April 2019, Larsen & Toubro and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation(HPCL) were the most preferred stocks of Indian mutual funds.
How to Choose Between ETFs and Mutual Funds  U.S. News & World ReportInvestors can add either mutual funds or ETFs to their portfolio.
Retail Investors Should Take Exposure To Midcap Stocks Through Mutual Fund Route: Ankit Jain, Mirae Asset Global Investments  BW BusinessworldIn an interview with BW Businessworld, Ankit Jain, Fund Manager, Mirae Asset Global Investments (India), talks about Consumption led funds, lending rates and ...
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Why do wealth managers recommend multi cap mutual funds?  Economic TimesMany wealth managers believe multi-cap funds are a good starting point for long-term investors, specially those using SIPs for wealth creation.
MF holdings of auto stocks at record low: Motilal Oswal study  BusinessLineMutual funds' holdings of auto sector stocks stood at a record low in April, finds a study by broking house Motilal Oswal Securities. The weightage of the auto ...
Stay away from stock tips  LivemintIf taming the stock market was easy, everyone would do it.Losing money in market is real and facing volatility is part of the deal.
Will these mutual funds help me to build Rs 50 lakh?  Economic TimesI am a new investor in mutual funds. I am 30 years. My aim is to build a corpus of Rs 50 lakh or more in 10 years. I am planning to invest through SIP in mutual ...
Closing Bell: Nifty holds 11,700, Sensex falls 382 points; Tata Motors loses 7%  Moneycontrol.comMarket Close: Indian indices fell 1 percent as they failed to maintain the strong up move which was recorded on May 20, on the back on exit polls for Lok Sabha ...
How Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds  BloombergControversial heartbeat trades help the funds avoid taxable gains.
Financial planners recommend new fund from Mirae Mutual Fund  Economic TimesConsistent performance of the existing equity mutual fund schemes at Mirae has prompted financial planners to suggest the Mirae Asset Focused Fund to ...
What political leaders invest in: Mutual funds, Reliance shares and even Kingfisher Airlines  Economic TimesShares of Mukesh Ambani- led Relaince can be found in the portfolios of several leaders.
As equity mutual funds' returns turn negative, debt outperforms  Economic TimesGains of 13% in the Sensex have not benefited equity fund investors, for whom returns in traditional debt funds investing in government bonds may have been ...
Betting on: FIIs, MFs raise stake consistently in 8 companies in last 4 quarters  MoneycontrolThe first and the most important step towards wealth creation is stock selection. Ideally, stocks selected or filtered should be based on your own research ...
Equity funds record highest ever exposure in banking stocks in March 2019  Business TodayAs per the latest data available from the SEBI, overall deployment of equity funds in bank stocks grew around 52 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in the month ...
Best And Worst Of Q2 2019: Industrials ETFs And Mutual Funds  Seeking AlphaThe Industrials sector ranks seventh in Q2'19. Based on an aggregation of ratings of 426 stocks in the Industrials sector. ITB is our top-rated Industrials sect.
China Stocks Are at the Mercy of Foreigners Like Never Before  BloombergThe record pace of foreign selling in China's equities matters now more than ever.
What Type of Mutual Fund Schemes Should You Invest in? Know Here  News18Equity funds are mutual funds which invest majorly in equity stocks of listed companies. They are considered to be risky but they tend to give higher returns in the ...
IT, pharma and telecom top sectoral picks for MFs in April  Economic TimesFund managers have been sellers in select public sector companies.
Look who is sitting on a cash pile to buy stocks after election result  Economic TimesMUMBAI: The domestic equity market is likely to trade in a narrow range until the election results, with foreign fund flows slowing down and mutual funds opting ...
Mutual Fund Update: Stocks that attracted fund managers in April 2019  Dalal Street Investment JournalIf we look at the March 2019 data, then the energy sector was the one that featured on top of the buying done by the fund managers. However, the story in the ...
5 Mutual Funds to Buy on Demand for Lower-Cost Funds  NasdaqMutual fund investors in the United States tend to invest more of their mutual fund assets in lower-cost funds, a report by the Investment Company.
Swedroe: Active Mgmt Whiff On Factors  ETF.comMost of the focus of the literature on active mutual funds has been on the question about their performance and the related issue about whether or not active fund ...
Stop! Too many stocks, mutual funds are not good for you; Buying too many may not get you more  The Financial ExpressHandling the overall risk of investments is crucial, but not at the cost of not meeting your financial goals. Over-diversification can do this.
What Makes Berkshire Hathaway Shares Better Than an Actively Managed Mutual Fund?  Motley FoolTo start with, the company is a lot more than Warren Buffett's carefully selected stock portfolio.
Best And Worst Q2 2019: Real Estate ETFs And Mutual Funds  Seeking AlphaThe Real Estate sector ranks last in Q2'19. Based on an aggregation of ratings of 180 stocks in the Real Estate sector. No Real Estate sector ETFs receive a ...
4 Best Dimensional Mutual Funds to Invest in Today  NasdaqFounded in 1981, Dimensional Fund Advisor offers investment solutions from different asset classes to institutional and individual investors,.
Is Fidelity Select Insurance (FSPCX) a Strong Mutual Fund Pick Right Now?  NasdaqIf you've been stuck searching for Sector - Finance funds, consider Fidelity Select Insurance (FSPCX) as a possibility. FSPCX bears a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank ...
Liquidity Scare: NBFC stocks slide on fears of spillover  Economic TimesAny default or downgrades in NBFC space will have a cascading impact on the entire sector.
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Shadow banks feel sting as mutual funds cut exposure  Economic TimesMF investments in commercial paper and bonds dropped to Rs 3.24 lakh crore at the end of March.
Yes Bank plummets 29% in a day; Is it a value buy now?  Economic TimesMUMBAI: Shares of Yes Bank plunged 29% on Tuesday after reporting its first ever quarterly loss, leading to an erosion of Rs 16,000 crore in market ...
People Want to Buy Uber Stock  Bloomberg“Uber IPO Is Oversubscribed by Day Two of Roadshow,” it says here, but I would say that Uber Technologies Inc.'s initial public offering was oversubscribed by ...
For First-time Investors, Here's All You Need to Know about About Mutual Funds  News18It is that time of the year again when the question of where to invest your money clouds your head. If you are a new investor planning to put in money in mutual ...
Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund seeks SEBI nod for banking ETF  MoneycontrolAditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has sought the Securities and Exchange Board of India's approval to launch Aditya Birla Sun Life Banking ETF, according to ...
Financial Advisor Industry Leader LPL Financial, An IBD 50 Stock, Is On IBD Breakout Stocks Index  Investor's Business DailyLPL FInancial joined the IBD Breakout Stocks Index as it entered a new buy zone. The financial advisor leader and IBD 50 stock has continued to climb.
Top fund houses among main bidders for Voda Idea issue  Economic TimesMUMBAI: Franklin Templeton, Eastspring Investments, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund and SBI Mutual Fund were among major financial institutions to bid for the ...
Mid & small cap stocks -- The year gone by and outlook for FY20  IndiainfolineIn the immediate future, stock markets in all probability will be guided by 3 things i.e. elections, economic growth and corporate earnings.
Reliance Nippon Life: Soft FY19 earnings, but ADAG stake sale may move the needle  MoneycontrolHighlights: - Total AUM growth in FY19 moderates, but finer details are encouraging - Business and customer mix changes favourably with higher equity and ...
Is Shelton Nasdaq-100 Index Direct (NASDX) a Strong Mutual Fund Pick Right Now?  NasdaqAny investors who are searching for Index funds should take a look at Shelton Nasdaq-100 Index Direct (NASDX). NASDX has no Zacks Mutual Fund Rank,.
Top 10 stocks that mutual fund managers bought and sold in March 2019  Moneycontrol.comData for equity flows into mutual funds for March came as a breather after a weak February. An increase in net inflows in equity and income category led to the ...
What India's top three mutual funds bought and sold in March  Economic TimesIndias largest money manager held 1.5 trillion rupees in equities.
Can mutual funds give multibagger returns like stocks?  Economic TimesStocks can be multibaggers. They can offer extraordinary returns in a very short period. Can mutual funds ever do that? This was a question thrown at Rajeev ...
Govt tweaks rules, increases limit to disclose investment in stocks, mutual funds for employees  Economic TimesNew Delhi: The Centre has increased the over 26-year-old monetary limit on disclosure of investment in shares and mutual funds by employees to six months of ...
7 stocks most favoured by mutual funds over last one year  Economic TimesAs the markets hit a speed bump, stocks favoured by mutual funds appear to be safer bets.
Active mutual funds fail to reflect index gains  Economic TimesThe Nifty, which has hit all-time highs for the second time in April, has advanced 12% in the last one year. But these gains are yet to reflect in many mutual funds' ...
What top 5 money managers bought and sold in February  Economic TimesFebruary was the fourth consecutive month of decline in net investment into equity mutual funds.
Mutual funds or direct equity investment – which is better?  Economic TimesOne big question that often dogs investors is which investing option should they opt for: mutual fund or direct equity? Katalyst Wealth's Ekansh Mittal ends your ...
7 Best Vanguard Funds for Your Retirement Portfolio  U.S. News & World ReportVanguard's funds are popular options to add to retirement portfolios.
Mutual funds shooting themselves in the foot?  Economic TimesWhat if banks take a leaf out of Kotak and HDFC Mutual Funds' decision to direct investors to come another day to get their money instead of paying them on the ...
Mutual Funds increase holding in ‘attractively valued’ oil & gas stocks  Economic TimesMUMBAI: Mutual funds have been adding shares of oil and gas companies such as GAIL, HPCL, BPCL and ONGC over the last few months, encouraged by ...
Mutual funds bet big on these 30 stocks in November; do you own any?  Moneycontrol.comThe Indian equity market rose about 5 percent in November but what was more heartening to see was inflows into mutual funds. Investors pumped Rs 1.4 lakh ...
Mutual funds sell several blue chips stocks, buy mid-caps in March  Business StandardDomestic money managers were seen pruning their holdings in several blue-chip stocks, including Reliance Industries (RIL) and Housing Development Finance ...
27-year-old rule changed: Disclosure limit on MF, stock investment up for bureaucrats  Economic TimesGroup A and B officials had to intimate government if total transaction in shares or MFs exceeded Rs 50K.
Should I increase investments in mutual funds once I have more money to invest?  Economic TimesI am a 19-year-old student. I want to invest Rs 2,500 per month in mutual funds for 7-8 years. Can I increase the investment amount with time—once I have more ...
Here’s a better tool to judge mutual fund performance than simple 1-year, 3-year returns  Economic TimesOne invests in mutual funds to earn potentially higher returns than those in traditional investment products, and I'm sure everyone looks at the one-year, ...
What top mutual funds bought and sold last month  LivemintMumbai: Inflows into Indian equity mutual funds in January were the smallest in two years as heightened market volatility and political uncertainty cooled ...
Check out what top five mutual funds bought & sold during October selloff  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: Mutual funds stood resilient as industry's asset base increased to Rs 22.23 lakh crore in October in spite of a heavy correction in the domestic ...
Why your core equity portfolio should be in index mutual funds  Economic TimesInvestors flock to the performing fund “after” it has beaten the index. Fund selection is not an exact science, and there will be hits and misses.
New SIP investors feel the pain as equity fund returns disappoint  Economic TimesSip by sip: That's how the average Indian had a taste of equities in the past couple of years. But the steady road to riches, which involved monthly mutual fund ...
What India's top three mutual funds bought and sold in February  LivemintMUMBAI: Inflows into Indian equity mutual funds in February were the smallest in more than two years as savers held back investments amid market volatility ...
5 funds that outperformed the recent surge in Nifty returns  Economic TimesFunds that bet on banks and financial services managed to outperform during this period.
Mutual funds may need smart bets on smallcap stocks to beat ETF show  Economic TimesSmallcap stocks could see up to ₹1 lakh cr inflow as fund managers look for potential winners: Analysts.
How stocks picked by mutual funds over 2014 to 2017 have performed  Economic TimesWhile the most wanted stocks of 2014 and 2015 have done well, the recent picks have disappointed.
Debt mutual funds with Zee exposure send investors into a tizzy  Economic TimesMUMBAI: Worries about the prospects of debt mutual funds holding securities of Subhash Chandra's Essel Group entities have resurfaced after Kotak Mutual ...
What India's top three MFs bought and sold in January  Economic TimesStock funds took in a net Rs 6160 crore, the least since January 2017.
Mutual funds garner over Rs 65,000 crore in Jan  Economic TimesMUMBAI: The mutual fund industry added assets worth Rs 65,439 crore in January 2019, taking total assets under management to Rs 23.37 lakh crore.
Mutual funds' exposure to banks hits 3-month low of Rs 1.88 lakh crore in Sept  Economic TimesMutual funds' holding of banking stocks declined by over Rs 21,600 crore to Rs 1.88 lakh crore in September, driven by the correction in equity markets.
Why it is a bad idea to always look for outperformers while investing in mutual funds  Economic TimesOne of the most important features that any investor, wealth adviser or anyone in the financial media looks for in an investment product is its track record in ...
Diversify equity portfolio with international funds  Economic TimesAs a part of diversifying your equity portfolio, wealth managers believe investors should diversify geographically using mutual funds. They can do this by ...
Flows to equity mutual funds rebound as rally spurs risk appetite  Economic TimesStock funds took in about 118 billion rupees ($1.7 billion), the highest since October.
How income from stocks and mutual funds are taxed for an individual  Moneycontrol.comCapital gains from transfer of unlisted share are considered as STCG where period of holding is less than or equal to 24 months, and LTCG when holding period ...
BJP’s Amit Shah has diversified stock investment portfolio; Rahul Gandhi prefers mutual funds  Economic TimesShah held shares worth Rs 17.56 cr as of March 22, while Gandhi has MFs worth Rs 5.19 cr.
Quantum Mutual Fund uses cash pile to buy stocks cheap  Economic TimesQuantum Long Term Equity Value Fund, where value investing is the pronounced fund allocation theme, has brought down the level of cash at its plan to the ...
Three large mutual funds opposed to L&T’s takeover of Mindtree  Economic TimesMUMBAI: Three large mutual funds holding shares of Mindtree are opposed to L&T's hostile takeover attempt of the mid-sized software company.
Should you shift from large-cap mutual funds to index funds?  Economic TimesThe index fund category of mutual fund schemes is slowly gaining traction among investors. The fortunes of index funds are changing as not only are they being ...
Quant-based mutual fund schemes are coming. Should you invest?  Economic TimesMany mutual fund advisors believe quant-based mutual funds are the future of the Indian mutual fund industry.
2019 is the year of SIP, says S Naren of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund  Economic TimesNSE Nifty 50 price-to-earnings ratio reached the highest level of 29.24 on April 2. Does it mean markets are overvalued? Should new investors enter in the ...
At least 100 MF schemes own these stocks; that should mean something, right?  Economic TimesDomestic institutional investors have become one of the key market drivers in recent years.
Top 30 stocks that fund managers bought & sold in March; do you own any?  Moneycontrol.comData for equity flows into a mutual funds for March came as a breather after a weak February. Increase in net inflows in equity and income category led to the ...
Is it time to invest in mid cap and small cap mutual fund schemes?  Economic TimesMany market pundits believe this is the right time to enter in small cap and mid cap segments.
How your mutual funds played the balancing act during stocks crash  Economic TimesBy Bhavana Acharya The last three months has been a bumpy ride for largecap stocks. The year so far has been unkind to the midcap and smallcap set.
Why stock market volatility is beneficial for mutual fund SIP investors  Economic TimesWhile investing through systematic investment plans, you make more money precisely because the markets are facing volatility.
Top fund houses are busy lapping up PSUs; what’s behind this new-found love  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: India's top three mutual funds, which manage over Rs 9 lakh crore in debt and equity assets, added a number of PSU stocks to their schemes in ...
Sebi issues new format for mutual funds' monthly report  Economic TimesFrom April 2019 onwards, AMCs will have to submit the MCR to Sebi in the new format by the third working day of each month.
Best mutual funds to invest in 2019  Economic TimesEveryone wants to invest in the best mutual funds. In fact, it is the sole reason why many investors keep on postponing their investments forever. Most mutual ...
Best small cap mutual funds to invest in 2019  Economic TimesHere is the monthly update on our recommended small cap mutual fund schemes. We are happy to inform you that there are no changes in the recommendation ...
Shariah-compliant investments through mutual funds  Economic TimesWithin the mutual fund industry, investors have a choice of two equity-oriented schemes and one gold scheme that are shariah compliant.

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