Market Timing

Every broker and financial planner will tell you that you cannot time the stock market. I saw John Bogle, the great seer of Vanguard, on CNBC saying it can't be done. Of course, it is easy to understand why he and every other mutual fund manager would say that as they would have a problem managing huge inflows and outflows of money and he was buying and holding during the 18-year bull from 1982 to 2000.

Every successful hedge fund managers knows that Buy and Hold is death for capital investment. Hedge fund managers are different than regular mutual fund managers in that they only get paid when they make a profit for their investors. Wouldn't it be refreshing if we could have that happen for the mutual funds you own. Last year 90% of all stock mutual funds lost money and the average fund manager made about $300,000.

To be invested in a hedge fund you must be a "qualified investor". That means you need to show an income of $200,000 a year for the last 2 years and have a net worth of $1,000,000. It is the old story of the rich get richer. The reason is simple. They don't put money with money mangers who can't manage money. Hedge fund managers must make profits or starve. The Securities and Exchange Commission should allow this type of investment for small investors, but they don't. Why don't you write them a letter and ask 'why'?

To protect your cash in your IRA, 401K, SEP, trust or just plain stock account you can learn to use market timing. There is one very simple timing method that anyone can master and you don't have to be a mathematical genius or even the least bit market savvy to do it.

From 1950 to the year 2000 the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 10,534 points. That is a pretty long time period so it is a very good sample. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac (2002 edition) a $10,000 investment using only the S&P500 Index your account would have increased by $11,408 if you had been invested just during May through October. Pretty shabby. However, if you were invested only from November through April that same $10,000 would have gained $314,056. Cowabunga! Who says you can't time the market?

If you were invested in a broad market index fund of any kind and switched to a money market during the Spring and Summer periods and been fully invested during the Fall and Winter you could be one of those qualified investors. You could have made an extra 700%. That's real money. And there are better timing models.

Anyone can do this, but brokers tell you you have to be fully invested all the time. Nonsense. They are worried you might take your money out. Cash is a position. They will tell you it is too simplistic, but that is the beauty of it. Simple is always better.

This is the easiest of all timing models I know and it works. Take some time to study it. It can only increase your net worth. And you will sleep better.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

[email protected]; 1-888-345-7870

In The News:

MF shopping list: Top 30 stocks that fund managers bought & sold in June  MoneycontrolMutual funds increased allocation to private banks, consumer, utilities, technology, NBFCs, retail, metals and PSU bank stocks in June, an ICICIdirect report said.
Mutual funds’ exposure to this space at all-time high; should you buy?  Economic TimesMoney managers on Dalal Street continued to shower affection on private banks for the ninth successive month as their exposure hit 19.90 per cent in June, ...
What India's three largest mutual funds bought and sold in June  LivemintInflows into Indian equity mutual funds jumped the most in three months in June.India's top money manager HDFC Mutual Fund held $22 billion in equities.
10-yr data suggests mid & small-cap indices may see double-digit rally this year  MoneycontrolA double-digit rally in broader markets could be in the offing in 2019 if historical precedences are taken into account. Twice in the last 10 years, mid and ...
Private banks’ share in Mutual fund holdings nears 20 per cent  The Asian AgeMutual funds have now also started buying the Small-Cap and Mid-Cap stocks selectively, said another report.
Equity mutual fund inflows hit seven month high in June despite volatile stock market; key things to know  The Financial ExpressThe equity mutual inflows touched a *fresh* seven-month high in June despite heightened volatility in the stock market.
Stability, fundamental strength guide MFs’ stock picks in June  Economic TimesFor fund managers committing money in June, the guiding principle was mere survival through stable returns. Given the uncertainty in demand and few signs of ...
Investors add 41 lakh demat accounts in a year  Economic TimesThe recent volatility in the stock market hasn't deterred new investors from trying their luck in equities. In the one year ended June 30, a good 41 lakh investors ...
Fidelity Steps Up Vanguard Fee War With Low-Cost Index Funds  BloombergFidelity Investments is stepping up its rivalry with Vanguard Group by launching five new index mutual funds with expense ratios it says are lower than the ...
ITR filing: Income tax department makes disclosing LTCG from stocks, equity mutual funds simpler  LivemintThe Finance Bill 2018 reintroduced tax on LTCG made from listed shares and equity-oriented mutual fund.You only need to disclose the total LTCG from ...
MF portfolio doctor: Babji needs to exit direct investments in stocks, take mutual funds route  Economic TimesThe Portfolio Doctor assesses the health of the fund portfolio, examines the schemes and their suitability with regard to the goals.
When to Choose Between Mutual Funds vs. Stocks  U.S. News & World ReportUnlike stocks, mutual funds offer built-in diversification and combine buckets of money for people to invest in stocks and bonds and are often recommended by ...
Sensex's rise from 20K to 40K: 5 lessons for equity mutual fund investors  Economic TimesWe look at some critical lessons that equity fund investors learnt during the journey of Sensex reaching 40K.
India's top broker shifts focus to mid, small cap funds as prices decline  LivemintDomestic investors in mid-and small-cap stocks pumped ₹27 billion into the nation's equities last month.HDFC Securities has joined a growing chorus to invest ...
Mutual Funds: Now invest in CPSE ETF to save tax under Section 80C  The Financial ExpressExperts say with tax benefits like ELSS, CPSE ETFs will be attractive for individual investors for creating long-term wealth.
Here are top 10 large, mid & small-cap stocks that MFs bought and sold in May  MoneycontrolAmong largecaps, Vodafone Idea, DLF, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Life Insurance and Piramal Enterprises witnessed highest buying during May 2019.
Mirae Asset MF positive on financials, OMCs, pharma shares for investments  MoneycontrolDecent earnings momentum and reasonable market valuations have made Mirae Asset Mutual Fund positive on the financial sector, oil marketing companies ...
3 stocks that can make you money despite a trade war or recession  MarketWatchBrian Beitner of Chautauqua Capital Management names three companies he believes can easily navigate rough waters.
Lenders to DHFL ready for haircut in rescue - sources  Economic TimesMUMBAI: Lenders to India's Dewan Housing Finance Ltd (DHFL) are ready to accept limited haircuts in a restructuring plan being worked out for the troubled ...
Bar on mutual funds to give stock dividend  The Daily StarThe stockmarket regulator yesterday came up with the decision of barring the open-end and closed-end mutual funds from providing any return on unit (a form of ...
BlackRock and Vanguard are the biggest investors in private prisons  CNNVanguard and iShares owner BlackRock are the two largest holders of prison companes CoreCivic and GEO. State Street Global Advisers, Prudential's QMA ...
5 Best-Performing Aggressive Growth Mutual Funds of 2019 So Far  Yahoo FinanceInvestors willing to take risks could find aggressive growth funds lucrative, as equities hit new highs and Fed strongly indicates a rate cut.
Mutual funds’ midcap bets rising cautiously; smallcaps still a no-no  Economic TimesNifty Midcap 100 has shed 16% since February 2018 while Nifty Smallcap100 tanked 30%.
What changed for the market while you were sleeping? Top 10 things to know  MoneycontrolA few cues from the market in India and abroad that could help you with your trade today.
Mutual funds wrap: Based on benefits — Can CPSE ETFs be game changer towards low risk ELSS funds?  MoneycontrolIn the last one year, the CPSE ETF has delivered a return of 11.69 percent, while in the last three years, the scheme delivered 9.19 percent.
Local mutual funds’ global bets disappoint on returns charts  Economic TimesInternational schemes of domestic mutual funds mostly held stocks of global companies that have been underperformers. Cognizant, Alphabet, Facebook and ...
Fall in HDFC MF stock could be opportunity to buy: Analysts  Economic TimesHDFC Asset Management shares plunged 6.3 per cent on Tuesday — the highest single-day fall in nine months — as investors slammed the mutual fund's ...
Mid, small caps offer opportunities, but hold stocks for at least a year  Business StandardAs market pundits had predicted, the stock market rally has become broader after the Lok Sabha elections ushered in a stable government. And the positive ...
India's hedge funds threatened by higher taxes  Economic TimesDomestic hedge funds have taken seven years to reach $6 billion in investment commitments.
The Most Expensive Fund in the Riskiest Investment Style  ForbesRecently, I warned investors to avoid the Small Cap Growth style. This week, I've identified a fund that has outperformed in recent years but allocates to ...
Best mutual fund scheme for a moderate equity investor  Economic TimesIf you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook. We will get it answered by our panel of experts.
Best Mutual Funds: This Baron Fund Seeks Unique Stocks  Investor's Business DailyAlex Umansky does not focus on macro market questions. Instead, he focuses on finding stocks that make his portfolio one of the best mutual funds.
Is Hodges Small Cap Fund Institutional Class (HDSIX) a Strong Mutual Fund Pick Right Now?  NasdaqIf you've been stuck searching for All Cap Growth funds, you might want to consider passing on by Hodges Small Cap Fund Institutional Class (HDSIX) as a ...
Debt-laden DHFL gets Sebi approval to exit mutual fund business  Economic TimesDebt-laden Dewan Housing Finance Corporation (DHFL) on Wednesday said it has received the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi) approval to ...
ITR Filing: From mutual funds to FDs, here’s how income from your favourite investments is taxed  The Financial ExpressFiling income tax return? Here's a ready reckoner about how returns on investments made in shares, mutual funds, FDs, gold and real estate are taxed.
Should I invest in Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund?  Economic TimesIf you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook. We will get it answered by our panel of experts.
Best Mutual Funds: This MainStay Fund Bets On 3 Types Of Growth Stocks  Investor's Business DailyMainStay Large Cap Growth Fund is one of the best mutual funds. Its managers know where they like to look for growth stocks — and where not to bother.
Stocks close flat on mutual fund sell-off  DAWN.comKARACHI: Stock market presented a picture of volatility all through the day with the KSE-100 index closing with a minor gain of 13.67 points (0.04 per cent) at ...
What are the mixed signals from stock market telling investors?  Economic TimesHere are six signs emanating from the market that investors should take note of.
Are Tech Stocks Nearing Another Bubble Burst?  Yahoo FinanceForgive me if today's stock market makes me feel a bit like Rip Van Winkle. Maybe, like Rip, I've been asleep since early 2000, which marked the peak of one of ...
NFO: ESG Equity Fund from Quantum Mutual Fund is open: Should you invest?  The Financial ExpressThe selection of stocks within the 'ESG Equity Fund's portfolio will be restricted to only those stocks which meet the criteria of Environment, Social and ...
Best Mutual Funds: Microsoft, Facebook, 29 More Stocks Receive Over $100 Million Each  Investor's Business DailyIn the latest list of new buys by the best mutual funds, Microsoft, Facebook, Starbucks, and Costco each received over $100 million in new investments.
A diversified mutual fund portfolio for a moderate investor  Economic TimesI am a beginner in mutual funds. I want your review on my portfolio. I have invested in these two funds: 1. Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund (SIP of Rs 1,000)
Recession Is Here Now For These Companies  Investor's Business DailyRecession is here now for a number of large companies — like Western Digital and Nvidia stock — a reminder why long-term investors need diversification.
Some pockets in mid, small caps have turned attractive, S Naren of ICICI Pru Mutual Fund  Economic TimesWe spoke to to S Naren, ED & CIO, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, to find out what is in store for mutual fund investors.
“We run Kotak Standard Multicap Fund with a large cap tilt,” says Harsha Upadhyaya, CIO – equity, Kotak AMC  Economic TimesKotak Standard Multicap Fund is the largest fund in the equity mutual fund universe, with assets worth Rs 26,010 crore. The scheme has significantly ...
How Quantum Mutual is tackling ESG investing  BusinessLineESG, not a choice but a necessity, says chief Chirag Mehta.
Biggest Amazon Prime buy of all may start the day after the sale ends  CNBCAmazon Prime Day is expected to set a new sales record for the online retail giant, bringing in close to $6 billion this week, but another big Amazon buy starts ...
Only NBFC fix can remove mutual fund risk; Sebi whip alone won’t do  Economic TimesCapital markets regulator Sebi's attempt to improve prudential regulation that includes tighter investment rules for debt mutual funds and stricter disclosure for ...
Beware! Exotic funds are a $40 billion time bomb ticking on D-Street  Economic TimesNothing grows this fast in finance without storing up trouble for the future.
India to witness launch of second ESG Fund from MF industry  MoneycontrolQuantum Mutual Fund will launch Quantum India ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) Equity Fund on June 21, which will remain open until July 5.
The 5 Best Investment Strategies In A Volatile Market  ForbesThe S&P 500 is hanging right around 2850. In late January, 2018, it hit a then closing peak of 2872. In the 17 months since it's struggled a couple of times to eke ...
Following Stock Trades And Mattress Sales, Real Estate Investing Goes Digital  ForbesAs Americans' confidence in online financial services grows, crowdfunded commercial real estate investing is finding its stride.
Deutsche Bank Quit Stock Trading. Blame Computers and the EU.  Barron'sMachines can trade. It takes people to think. That's one of the lessons from Deutsche Bank 's (ticker: DB) decision this month to close its equity-sales and trading ...
HDFC MF to buy Rs 500-crore NCDs of Essel Group from its debt schemes  Economic TimesHDFC Mutual Fund has decided to buy Rs 500 crore worth of Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs) of the Essel Group from the debt schemes that have ...
JNJ Earnings: Why JNJ Stock Is Sliding Despite Topping Second-Quarter Estimates  Investor's Business DailyIn the second quarter, JNJ earnings were $2.58 a share on $20.56 billion in sales, above views. JNJ stock slid after the company kept its earnings guide.
Stocks in the news: RCom, ICICI Bank, HDFC AMC, Jaiprakash Associates and Jet Airways  Economic TimesHere are a few stocks which may buzz the most in Tuesday's trade.
These stock and bond ETFs cost you almost nothing to own  MarketWatchTop money and investing features from MarketWatch this past week.
Real Estate vs. Stock Investing: Which Is Right for You?  The Motley FoolBetween stocks and real estate, one asset class is likely to offer more reliable cash flow and passive income -- and a higher rate of return, too.
Closing bell: Indices snap 4-day losing streak, Sensex gains 85 pts; banks, IT stocks lead  Moneycontrol.comThe sectoral trend was mixed with Private Banks and IT gaining. The broader markets underperformed frontliners.
Q2 Earnings Preview: See 16 Stocks Expecting 50% To 550% Growth  Investor's Business DailyAs some of the fastest-growing companies get ready to report their latest quarterly performance, it's time to build your Q2 earnings season ation plan. Here's a ...
Ulta Stock Faces Spotlight On Amazon, Lady Gaga Deal  Investor's Business DailyUlta stock is in the spotlight as retail giant Amazon teams up with Lady Gaga to launch an exclusive line of beauty products from the pop icon.
Is My Fund a Liquidity Trap?  Morningstar.comFear or Fear Not? My colleague John Rekenthaler recently wrote about the hazards of illiquid mutual fund investments. Long story short, mutual funds and ...
Is your mutual fund buying or selling stocks too much?  LivemintA turnover ratio measures the extent to which a fund manager churns her portfolio.If the portfolio turnover is greater than 100%, that typically means that the fund ...
What India's top three mutual funds bought and sold in March  Economic TimesIndias largest money manager held 1.5 trillion rupees in equities.
5 Top-of-the-Line T. Rowe Price Mutual Funds  Kiplinger's Personal FinanceT. Rowe Price mutual funds are a rarity in that they have found success across a wide range of strategies. Here are five of their best offerings.
Should you invest in international mutual funds?  LivemintIf you were to sort all equity mutual funds available for retail investment by their one-year performance, international funds would come on top. The best ...
Consider investing in direct stocks only if you can monitor portfolio proactively  LivemintDirect stocks can be considered if you have the ability to do research to identify the stocks to be bought as well as to be sold.You should be revisiting your ...
Govt increases limit to disclose investment in stocks, mutual funds for employees  Moneycontrol.com*Service* rules say no government servant shall speculate in any stock, share or other investment.
Here's a look at the mutual fund favourites in May  MoneycontrolThe second month of FY19-20 saw a notable change in the sector and stock allocation from the top 20 mutual fund houses. On a month-on-month basis, MFs ...
MF holdings of auto stocks at record low: Motilal Oswal study  BusinessLineMutual funds' holdings of auto sector stocks stood at a record low in April, finds a study by broking house Motilal Oswal Securities. The weightage of the auto ...
What India's top three mutual funds bought and sold in May  LivemintInflows into Indian equity mutual funds in May rebounded from the smallest in 31 months as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's comfortable electoral win spurred ...
What top mutual funds bought and sold last month  LivemintMumbai: Inflows into Indian equity mutual funds in January were the smallest in two years as heightened market volatility and political uncertainty cooled ...
Equity funds record highest ever exposure in banking stocks in March 2019  Business TodayAs per the latest data available from the SEBI, overall deployment of equity funds in bank stocks grew around 52 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in the month ...
A young investor’s guide to mutual funds  Economic TimesMany young investors, who are barely a year or two old in their career, are eager to start investing in mutual funds. ETMutualFunds.com receive many queries on ...
Mutual funds bet big on these 30 stocks in November; do you own any?  Moneycontrol.comThe Indian equity market rose about 5 percent in November but what was more heartening to see was inflows into mutual funds. Investors pumped Rs 1.4 lakh ...
Here are a few mutual funds that stocked up on YES Bank in Q4FY19  Business StandardShares of YES Bank tanked 30 per cent in trade on Tuesday, after the bank reported a massive Rs 1,507 crore loss in the fourth quarter of financial year 2018-19 ...
Index mutual funds see 60% jump in assets in a year as actively managed funds struggle  Economic TimesIndex mutual funds — a category that aims to mimic returns of benchmarks, like Nifty or Sensex — have seen their assets surge 60% over the past one year as ...
How concentrated is your mutual fund portfolio?  LivemintA concentrated portfolio can backfire badly if the fund manager's strategy goes wrong.A portfolio with few stocks can fall sharply if share prices of most stocks in ...
Flows into mutual funds revive in May as Modi win seems to spur risk demand  LivemintFlows into Indian equity mutual funds in May rebounded from the smallest in 31 months as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's comfortable electoral win spurred ...
Actively-managed large cap mutual funds poised for a comeback  Economic TimesDefying predictions of their imminent irrelevance, some actively-managed large cap mutual fund schemes have bounced back to the top of the return chart.
Should you invest in algorithm-based quant mutual funds?  Economic TimesQuant funds work on a data-driven model that relies on a mix of parameters and algorithms to identify the right stocks at the right time. But can they beat actively ...
How income from stocks and mutual funds are taxed for an individual  Moneycontrol.comCapital gains from transfer of unlisted share are considered as STCG where period of holding is less than or equal to 24 months, and LTCG when holding period ...
Mutual funds or direct equity investment – which is better?  Economic TimesOne big question that often dogs investors is which investing option should they opt for: mutual fund or direct equity? Katalyst Wealth's Ekansh Mittal ends your ...
7 stocks most favoured by mutual funds over last one year  Economic TimesAs the markets hit a speed bump, stocks favoured by mutual funds appear to be safer bets.
Mutual funds sell several blue chips stocks, buy mid-caps in March  Business StandardDomestic money managers were seen pruning their holdings in several blue-chip stocks, including Reliance Industries (RIL) and Housing Development Finance ...
Stick to MFs if you lack knowledge on stocks  LivemintWhile equity is surely the way going forward considering your age and the financial goals, how you buy in equity is important.Direct stocks work very well if done ...
The dangers of high mutual fund inflows  LivemintMutual funds have put ₹2.4 trillion into markets in the last two years.Equity mutual funds receive ₹8000 crore monthly through SIPs.
First-time investors can look at these mutual funds for long term  Economic TimesInvestors, who were waiting on the sidelines for the uncertainty to recede, are now looking to deploy their cash. But, valuations remain steep.
Best mutual funds to invest for five years  Economic TimesIf you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook. We will get it answered by our panel of experts.
Investment limits Sebi prescribes for mutual funds  LivemintIn case of unrated debt instruments, a mutual fund cannot invest more than 10% of the portfolio in a single issuer and 25% in all such securities.In case of listed ...
I want to invest Rs 1 crore in stocks and mutual funds for 5 years. How should I invest?  Economic TimesYou may consider the following asset allocation: 40% in large-caps; 40% in large and mid-cap, or multi-caps; and remaining 20% in mid- and small-cap funds.
Will these mutual funds help me to create Rs 8 crore?  Economic TimesIf you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook. We will get it answered by our panel of experts.
Here’s a better tool to judge mutual fund performance than simple 1-year, 3-year returns  Economic TimesOne invests in mutual funds to earn potentially higher returns than those in traditional investment products, and I'm sure everyone looks at the one-year, ...
Top 8 most common mutual fund investing mistakes and how to avoid them  Business StandardMutual funds garnered Rs 8,022 crore of its assets by way of SIPs in December 2018, 29 per cent higher than the previous year | Illustration: Binay Sinha ...
What top 5 money managers bought and sold in February  Economic TimesFebruary was the fourth consecutive month of decline in net investment into equity mutual funds.
Mutual funds shooting themselves in the foot?  Economic TimesWhat if banks take a leaf out of Kotak and HDFC Mutual Funds' decision to direct investors to come another day to get their money instead of paying them on the ...
Mutual Funds increase holding in ‘attractively valued’ oil & gas stocks  Economic TimesMUMBAI: Mutual funds have been adding shares of oil and gas companies such as GAIL, HPCL, BPCL and ONGC over the last few months, encouraged by ...
Why your core equity portfolio should be in index mutual funds  Economic TimesInvestors flock to the performing fund “after” it has beaten the index. Fund selection is not an exact science, and there will be hits and misses.
Can mutual funds give multibagger returns like stocks?  Economic TimesStocks can be multibaggers. They can offer extraordinary returns in a very short period. Can mutual funds ever do that? This was a question thrown at Rajeev ...

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