Political Investing

We have two candidates for president that have really different ideas on how to make the economy grow.

Bush believes in the entrepreneurial approach. People should be allowed to invest in themselves. He even wants to let people have some of the 15% that now goes to the Social Security "trust fund". Folks, there ain't no such thing. All the money the government takes out of your paycheck goes into the general fund and the pols spend it as they choose for "your best interest" provided it coincides with theirs. Am I being too cynical?

Gore believes the government should take care everything and everyone. The more dependency of the people on the government the better because the dependents will look to him for what they need and keep him in office. Forty percent of the people in this country pay no taxes at all.

But what is the important thing that will make the stock market continue to go up? Is Bush better than Gore for the market? Or visa versa? Is a Democrat better than a Republican for the stock market? Or visa versa?

Historically the market finishes the year up 14% when the incumbent party prevails. The Dow goes down 3% when the parties change in the White House. It would seem Mr. Gore would be a better bet. But little George has proposed a plan that would give wage earners the right to put 16% of their payroll taxes into a private investment account. This would certainly fuel the stock market.

Who takes care of those who do a poor job of investing and lose all their money? We are already taking care of them. Did you know the return on investment for Social Security is about 2 1/2%? A money market fund earns twice that. Yes, there will be some who do lose that small personal investment account; however, there will be many more who do well and will have a better lifestyle for their personal efforts. There will be another bear market and all the sheep will be sheared.

Right now the economy is so strong that Mr. Greenspan is doing his best to slow it down. And we are in a strong world economy. Even Germany and France have finally learned that the way to stimulate their country's growth is to lower taxes. It has been an expensive lesson for them. Lower taxes mean more money for people to spend and invest, both of which stimulate the economy. Democrats needn't worry that there will be less spending if they should lose the White House as the Republicans know how to spend as well as they do. Cynical again, huh?

When it comes right down to which man will do better or worse for the stock market it is a toss-up. The difference is made in Congress, not in the White House. The president tries to steer the Congress to act on his beliefs. One of the things few people remember - it is best to have opposing views between the executive and legislative branches of government. A Democratic president is balanced off by a Republican Congress. And visa versa.

We'll just have to wait to see what this next election brings.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

In The News:

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27-year-old rule changed: Disclosure limit on MF, stock investment up for bureaucrats  Economic TimesGroup A and B officials had to intimate government if total transaction in shares or MFs exceeded Rs 50K.
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From Axis to ICICI: Mutual funds lap up private bank stocks ahead of rally  Business StandardDomestic money managers aggressively bought shares of private sector banks in February. Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank were the two most-bought ...
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Equity funds record highest ever exposure in banking stocks in March 2019  Business TodayAs per the latest data available from the SEBI, overall deployment of equity funds in bank stocks grew around 52 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in the month ...
Should I increase investments in mutual funds once I have more money to invest?  Economic TimesI am a 19-year-old student. I want to invest Rs 2,500 per month in mutual funds for 7-8 years. Can I increase the investment amount with time—once I have more ...
These are fertile grounds for long-term stock pickers, says Samir Rachh of Reliance Mutual Fund  Economic TimesSmall cap funds are going through a rough patch after a bull run in 2017. etmutualfunds.com spoke to Samir Rachh, fund manager, Reliance Small Cap Fund, ...
Fund managers raised stake in 194 stocks in Dec quarter. Is it a good idea to follow them?  Moneycontrol.comFund managers raised stake in as many as 194 companies in the December quarter as compared to the previous quarter. Stocks of some these companies have ...
Why HDFC Bank stock is among the top picks of mutual funds  Business TodayPrivate sector lender HDFC Bank, the third-largest Indian firm by market capitalisation, is among the favourite stocks in the portfolios of mutual funds. Despite ...
Shall I buy the HDFC AMC stock or mutual fund?  LivemintThe HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd stock closed 65% up on the first day of listing over its IPO price of ₹ 1,100 per share. Investors who sold on day one, saw ...
What Type of Mutual Fund Schemes Should You Invest in? Know Here  News18Equity funds are mutual funds which invest majorly in equity stocks of listed companies. They are considered to be risky but they tend to give higher returns in the ...
Large cap index mutual funds continue to outshine actively-managed large cap schemes  Economic TimesLarge cap index funds are outperforming the actively-managed large cap mutual fund schemes in the past one-year period. Kotak NV 20 ETF is topping the ...
Private banks, oil & gas companies find favour among fund managers  Moneycontrol.comMoneycontrol News. The month gone by saw a notable change in sector and stock allocation of funds from the mutual fund industry. On a month-on-month ...
Mutual funds may need smart bets on smallcap stocks to beat ETF show  Economic TimesSmallcap stocks could see up to ₹1 lakh cr inflow as fund managers look for potential winners: Analysts.
Birla MF looks to parachute out of Jet Airways crashing stock  Business StandardBirla Sun Life Mutual Fund (MF) — the only fund house holding Jet Airways shares in its actively managed schemes — off-loaded Rs 13 crore worth of shares in ...
Small- and mid-cap mutual funds open doors again, but should you invest?  LivemintL&T Emerging Businesses Fund and DSP Small Cap Fund have allowed *fresh* mutual fund investments, taking advantage of a continued correction in small- ...
Check out what top five mutual funds bought & sold during October selloff  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: Mutual funds stood resilient as industry's asset base increased to Rs 22.23 lakh crore in October in spite of a heavy correction in the domestic ...
Mutual funds' exposure to banks hits 3-month low of Rs 1.88 lakh crore in Sept  Economic TimesMutual funds' holding of banking stocks declined by over Rs 21,600 crore to Rs 1.88 lakh crore in September, driven by the correction in equity markets.
How diversified should a mutual fund be?  LivemintDiversification is an important parameter to evaluate a mutual fund portfolio. A diversified portfolio implies lower risk since the poor performance of one or a few ...
How stocks picked by mutual funds over 2014 to 2017 have performed  Economic TimesWhile the most wanted stocks of 2014 and 2015 have done well, the recent picks have disappointed.
As equity mutual funds' returns turn negative, debt outperforms  Economic TimesGains of 13% in the Sensex have not benefited equity fund investors, for whom returns in traditional debt funds investing in government bonds may have been ...
BJP’s Amit Shah has diversified stock investment portfolio; Rahul Gandhi prefers mutual funds  Economic TimesShah held shares worth Rs 17.56 cr as of March 22, while Gandhi has MFs worth Rs 5.19 cr.
Debt mutual funds with Zee exposure send investors into a tizzy  Economic TimesMUMBAI: Worries about the prospects of debt mutual funds holding securities of Subhash Chandra's Essel Group entities have resurfaced after Kotak Mutual ...

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