The I Word is Coming to a Town Near You

Hello Inflation, it has been awhile, I see you on your way back again. Inflation? What inflation? Oh things like; Energy, diesel fuel, Aviation Fuel, Gasoline, Natural Gas, Milk, Wheat, Corn, Beef, Poultry, Hogs, Soy Beans, Building materials, paper, housing, Auto Prices, Health Care, Insurance, etc. You know the basics. Also considering the wholesale inflation, which comes from fuel costs being passed on, government regulations infringing on productivity and additional fees and fines to replace the taxes and incentives. When wholesale prices go up, those are passed onto the consumer.

How do we know all this? This is not a guess by any means. We have studied these issues for quite a while. Here is why we think this. Well as far as agriculture, we know from the droughts in the major farming regions and we can tell by the commodities market. We have seen the high temperatures and lack of water with Wheat and Corn in ID, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS. In other markets floods have hurt some crops. Also drought hurting the growing of feed for Cattle, meaning beef prices will go up. Canada MAD COW now our Mad Cow problem, problems with Japan's increased tariffs on beef. Hogs and Beef in KS cannot get the water they need. Also in farming we have seen areas where the Sierra Club is suing so many projects to stop or slow building of new reservoirs in NM, ID, CO, AZ, NV, OR, CA. Also the specialty crops are running low and not enough to meet demand, things like berries (see bear lake issues) and issues in Winnepeg and BC, grapes (2 buck chuck run supplies low), etc as well as issues with depleted soil in Central Valley CA, Desert Farmers along the AZ and CA border cannot use that amount of water since CA and AZ will need it for new housing areas, golf courses and other uses (see the Colorado river situation) Farmers VS Developers and housing in PHX, Tucson, Las Vegas, San Diego, San Bernardino, Riverside, many are predicting a bubble burst, we have seen issues in the REITs which was a little bit of a shake up.

Natural Gas from the lack of new wells being drilled, for instance off the coast of Maine and the Gulf. Lack of ability to gear up in infrastructure fast enough to supply this winter's need even though it should be a relatively non-violent winter as far as that goes-however few Hurricanes on West Coast last year showed us a lowered Jet Stream and lower latitude airflows, La Nina comes next and that means drought continued and water prices will go up and many business which use water will be worried and charge more too for their services. I have also been studying the EU droughts and heat and the issues with their exports meaning supply will not equal demand. Humanitarian needs are at issue as well. Meanwhile the Super Crops are being blocked by EU and WTO and much of those crops may not be able to be used in all markets. Some really bad deals here for humanity. Fruit in FL and the everglades issues are getting to be a bigger deal.

Dairy Farmers in ID are up 12% but they want more money and the National Dairy Association is also pushing forward. Increased demand is putting the dairy farmers feeling that they can charge more and will soon need to upgrade. The fires in ID, MT are using up much water supplies very early and fire season has another 2.5 months left. Also CO, NM, WY not out of the season yet. What about the threat of Bird Flu?

With Building materials we are seeing increased government regulation, timber tariffs on imported from Canada. Paper industry is in trouble and the replanted forests and forest farms are usually fast growing trees good for paper, not building grade timber. Housing spikes caused this, many areas growing fast.

Oil prices up due to manipulations in supply, Middle East issues, China coming on strong with needs of her own, Military needs effecting supply and demand issues, International Terrorists screwing with infrastructures, South American trade war paybacks, oil pipelines too few, Nimby-ism slowing output and inflows while the demand has increased, Airline fuel down and therefore price has too increase to pay for the direct cost loads. Our growth and consumerism has outpaced our supply and infrastructures. With energy the Blackout of 2003, rolling CA issues, generation plants being shut down, slowness of building new Nuclear Power Plants, issues in OR along the major Columbia River with Bonneville Power, issues with CA and SMUD, issues with upgrades needed in Coal Plants to meet EPA upgrades also same problems in VA, NC, SC, and the Tennessee River Valley Authority. Pipeline break in AZ and Phoenix they were paying nearly $2.00 per gallon, but now in CA they are at $2.65 per gallon. Sabotage in Iraq screws up supply for worldwide market. We are seeing OPEC moving forward to keep prices high, China coming online with needs, world demand is going up, takes too long to ramp up our own production and few companies wish too, for fear of dropping of prices too quickly, meanwhile we are seeing $2.46 gasoline on West Coast and $1.90 in San Antonio, no one expects these prices to come down, recessions follow high fuel prices by 6 months? So these are all issues and everything we buy has these high costs figured in. Construction, farming, transportation. Some school districts complaining about cost of buses and kids hurting budgets and at the same time increased prices mean more monies to state coffers which charge percentages of fuel prices as tax.

This article is in no way a doom and gloom showing, because I do see increased economic sunshine in many markets, but not all, those which have the burdens of drought, fires, shortages and manufacturing are going to see some more tough times. When energy goes up, some businesses running redline on low margins with lots of competition will see harder times and layoffs in the near future, while other sectors will be continuing the recovery.

These companies must raise prices, nearly all airlines have announced even additional higher fares this week, 14 of the largest trucking companies; the ones which haul the food, building materials, cars to dealerships and everything on every shelf in America. Railroad is increasing rates too. And Independent truck drivers holding on by a thread with insurance costs up too. We are also not going to be able to release the Military reserves in such uncertain times. So Inflation, there she blows and meanwhile interest rates will increase and money flows continue offshore.

What is of concern is that without increased wages, higher percentages of consumer incomes will be spent on food, gas, energy and other artificially inflated or supply and demand driven goods and services, yes that includes many sectors.

Now is a very important time in our nations history and in the business cycles at hand. We will get through this as it also hits other nations who sell to us, the trick is to come out of this present period with after burners blazing and set a course to the future prosperity and into the annals of destiny. Which we may write thru our human spirit and will.

"Lance Winslow" - If you have innovative thoughts and unique perspectives, come think with Lance; www.WorldThinkTank.net/wttbbs

In The News:

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Do not make these 7 mistakes while investing in mutual funds  Moneycontrol.comNever forget that you are investing because you have to achieve your financial goals. Investing without a goal is akin to travelling without a destination.
Mutual funds that destroyed most investor wealth in the September selloff  Economic TimesThe recent selloff in the stock market has raised fears of a rush for redemption in mutual funds.​
Top 10 mutual funds which can double your wealth in long term  The Financial ExpressMutual funds are one of the most popular and smart ways for investors to build wealth over the long term. One can also double one's money, if planned properly.
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Picking the best mutual fund: Are past returns relevant after re-categorisation?  Moneycontrol.comWhile selecting a scheme for investment or while deciding whether to continue with a current investment, a fund's performance track record does play a critical ...
Fund managers' bets: Top 10 large, mid and small-cap stocks that MFs bought in October  Moneycontrol.comMF industry assets grew to Rs 22.2 lakh crore on the back of improved inflows into equity-oriented and liquid funds.
Should you shift from large-cap mutual funds to index funds?  Economic TimesThe index fund category of mutual fund schemes is slowly gaining traction among investors. The fortunes of index funds are changing as not only are they being ...
Value focussed MF are cutting their exposure to Indian stocks. What about you?  Moneycontrol.comAs valuations climb, the funds have chosen to stay light on Indian stocks and exposure to bonds and arbitrage has gone up.
Why your mutual fund earned you less than Nifty in recent market rally  Economic TimesThe more the number of stocks in an index, the weaker is its performance.
These 10 stocks make up over one-third of entire mutual fund portfolio in India; check full list  The Financial ExpressEven as Sensex and Nifty continue their strong rally driven by a cheer in blue chip stocks, just 10 top names make up a whopping 34% of the entire mutual fund ...
Investing in mutual funds? Diversify to reduce risks and enhance returns  Moneycontrol.comIn the worst of the times for stock markets, individuals invested across the asset classes are less hit as compared to investors betting all their money on stocks.
How do mutual funds help you to invest better?  Moneycontrol.comMutual funds can provide you products that can meet your financial goals with relatively lesser risk.
Top 10 large, mid and smallcap stocks which fund managers bought & sold in September  Moneycontrol.comFears of a liquidity crunch following the IL&FS crisis hit the mutual fund industry in September. Cash plans, or liquid funds, were the worst hit.
10 mutual fund options that could be good bets as markets trend higher  Moneycontrol.comInvestment advisors feel this is time for caution and that investors should veer more towards funds with exposure towards large-caps or those that are multi-cap ...
How much do mutual fund managers invest in their own schemes?  Moneycontrol.comEver since SEBI mandated mutual fund houses to disclose how much fund managers, directors of the asset management company and other key employees ...
These 18 consistent mutual funds may help you to beat stock market volatility  Economic TimesMany equity mutual fund advisors abhor volatility in the stock market. They are always searching for ways to tackle this beast which gives them sleepless nights.
India is set for a good run in 2019, says Reliance Mutual Fund  Moneycontrol.comManish Gunwani, CIO-Equity at Reliance MF, the market is positioned well in terms of valuation and macros.
Mutual funds data show market is running out of fuel  Moneycontrol.comThe sharp fall in net equity mutual fund inflows in December 2018 is a cause of worry.
Some international funds are giving around 40% returns. Should you invest?  Economic TimesInternational mutual funds are topping the return charts. The category has returned around 20 per cent in one year. Should retail investors bet on these schemes ...
Here are top buys and sells by mutual funds in August when Sensex, Nifty hit record highs  Moneycontrol.comAmong largecaps, HDFC AMC, Sun TV Network, TVS Motor, Vedanta and Tech Mahindra topped the August buying list of top 10 mutual fund houses which ...
Planning an SIP in mutual funds? Keep these things in mind  Moneycontrol.comYou should identify a fund which has not only performed well when the markets are rising but also tackled the tides of a falling market and has controlled losses.
How to build your mutual fund portfolio from scratch  Moneycontrol.comYou need to know that there is no such thing as a "perfect mutual fund portfolio". There can be numerous reasonably good portfolios, and there's no ...
Best large cap mutual funds to invest in 2019  Economic TimesHere's a monthly update on our recommended large cap mutual funds to invest in 2019. The good news is that there is no change in the recommendations.
Why liquidity offered by mutual funds is good for you  Moneycontrol.comYou may come across emergencies which warrant sudden requirement of cash. In such a situation, mutual funds come in handy.
Choose your mobile app wisely to invest in direct mutual funds  Moneycontrol.comSome mobile apps are not updated on regular basis. Often there may be errors in the stocks portfolio of several schemes.
Top 10 wealth creator mutual fund schemes of 2018  Moneycontrol.comThe IT sector has been riding on good earnings show by the IT giants in India. The depreciating rupee is in the last few years boosted the fortunes of the ...
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala`s success mantra: How to make money with Mutual Fund SIP, stock trading  Zee BusinessRakesh Jhunjhunwala's success mantra: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is an inspiration for all aspiring stock traders or investors. The investment wizard's tips, his ...
Should investors worry about P/E ratio of mutual funds?  Economic TimesPrice to earnings or P/E ratio is an important parameter in the world of stocks. Some pundits believe that it is time mutual fund investors start taking the P/E ratio ...
FIIs, MFs bet on 138 stocks in last 1 year; should you buy?  Moneycontrol.comOut of the 138 stocks which witnessed increase in weightage on a year-on-year basis, as many as 14 stocks saw a correction of 20-80 percent in the last 1 year.

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