NASDAQ 800?

In November of 2000 when the NASDAQ was trading at 3000 I wrote in this column that the NASDAQ Index would fall to 1500 and I got lots of heat for saying it. Microsoft had fallen from $129 to $60 per share. You know where they are today.

The talking heads on CNBC-TV and many of the radio stock experts are convinced we are headed back up as soon as this small "correction" is over ? and they could be right, but I seem to remember their former predictions just before the major stock indexes went over the edge of Financial Niagara Falls. Can it happen again since the market has fallen so far?

For a year the DOW has been creeping higher. The NASDAQ has gained back about 40%, but please remember the NASDAQ Index is not composed of the same stocks as it was 3 years ago and neither is the DOW. Many companies went bankrupt and others have been delisted because they do not meet the criteria to remain on the board.

Too many investors have not done their homework. Most of them only know the great bull market of 1982 to 2000. The same goes for brokers. Almost none have ever seen a bear market. I call the mutual fund managers 'children' because most of them were in diapers during the last bear of l972-74 and they discount the sudden break of 1987 as an aberration. What it amounts to is they have no idea of what to do when the brown stuff hits the fan.

It is a shame that brokers are not taught the basics of how to protect customers' money and same goes for mutual fund managers. Scores of mutual funds went out of business during the last break and others were absorbed by their big brothers in large fund families.

The market rarely crashes as it did in 1987 and usually erodes away as it did in 1972-74. Current investors have never been told about secular bull and secular bear markets that last about 16 to 18 years in each direction. During those down or at best sideways periods investors are happy to break even. This is a historical fact that you can check back for a hundred years.

If we are in this 16 years down that started in 2000 do you have a plan as to what to do to protect your financial well being? Most people don't and they refuse to accept the idea that anything like another loss of 80% can occur. Brokers don't have a plan. Fund managers don't have a plan. Do you have a plan? If you don't it is time to start thinking how you can protect what you have now. The most important thing about any investment is not to lose money.

The market today has the potential for another 2000 break. Now is the time to protect your investments. Get your stocks and mutual funds out and if you have any that have lost more than 10 or even 20% from their highest price it would be wise to sell them and remain in cash. NASDAQ 800 may not be far away.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

In The News:

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Why investors should consider buying stock in the fund company, not the fund  MarketWatchThese investing and stock-market stories offer tips and ideas about what to watch for — and watch out for — when it comes to your money.
BlackRock Steps Up Price War With Fee Cut on Its S&P 500 Index Fund  Barron'sNo one puts BlackRock in a corner. The $6 trillion money manager made its presence known in the ongoing fee wars as the competition for *fresh* money heats ...
It may be end of the road for Mindtree promoters: Experts say no option left  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: While the Mindtree management is trying to put up a brave front in the face of a hostile takeover bid by L&T, analysts and industry veterans say ...
When the Evidence Is Solid and the Returns Aren’t  BloombergThe numbers said other strategies should have beaten growth stocks after the financial crisis. They didn't (so far).
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Great RoCE, solid dividend payout, yet this stock just does not deliver  Economic TimesSuperior business performance almost always guarantees superior stock returns. But one stock has been defying this logic on Dalal Street all of this past decade ...
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A high-risk, high-reward game  BusinessLineMF promoter lending need not be banned for debt funds, but the exposures need to be in high risk schemes.
From best to worst, India's stock market sets off alarm bells  Economic TimesIndia has wiped out $113 billion this year after winning the regional equity crown in 2018.
The Fed’s Rate-Raising Days Are Over. Wall Street Couldn’t Be Happier.  The New York TimesInvestors have finally started to chase this year's stock market rally, which has been driven largely by the Federal Reserve's sharp turn away from steady rate ...
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Investors facing a tax bill for stock mutual funds that fell in 2018  The Seattle TimesAdding insult to injury, investors holding mutual funds in a taxable account will have to pay taxes on their holdings, even though their value declined last year.
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U.S. investors jump back into domestic stock funds as market rallies  ReutersU.S. investors jumped back into domestic stock funds during the week that ended Feb. 20 amid the best start to a year for the S&P 500 since 1987, breaking a ...
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7 stocks most favoured by mutual funds over last one year  Economic TimesAs the markets hit a speed bump, stocks favoured by mutual funds appear to be safer bets.
Govt tweaks rules, increases limit to disclose investment in stocks, mutual funds for employees  Economic TimesNew Delhi: The Centre has increased the over 26-year-old monetary limit on disclosure of investment in shares and mutual funds by employees to six months of ...
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27-year-old rule changed: Disclosure limit on MF, stock investment up for bureaucrats  Economic TimesGroup A and B officials had to intimate government if total transaction in shares or MFs exceeded Rs 50K.
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Is it a good time to invest in small-cap mutual fund schemes?  Economic TimesBears have taken control of the small and mid-cap territories in the stock markets. The Nifty Smallcap100 index has plunged nearly 27% this year, after a 3-4 ...
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New stock ideas boost equity mutual fund portfolios  LivemintIt is imperative for mutual fund houses to beef up their research capabilities, to be able to identify more winning new ideas.
When should you sell your mutual fund schemes? - Stocks and equity mutual funds are different  Economic TimesInvesting in an individual stock and equity mutual fund scheme is different. You must look at various parameters like key ratios while investing in a stock. Hence ...
Mutual funds may need smart bets on smallcap stocks to beat ETF show  Economic TimesSmallcap stocks could see up to ₹1 lakh cr inflow as fund managers look for potential winners: Analysts.
Mutual fund investing for the conservative: Should you stick to largecap funds only?  Moneycontrol.comFinancial planners advocate investing in equity mutual funds to beat inflation and build a corpus that will cater to one's future needs, even if one is a conservative ...
Why stock market volatility is beneficial for mutual fund SIP investors  Economic TimesWhile investing through systematic investment plans, you make more money precisely because the markets are facing volatility.
Why stopping mutual fund SIPs when stock market falls can jeopardise your financial goals  Economic TimesFear has returned to Dalal Street. Caught in a perfect storm of weak macroeconomic numbers, the IL&FS crisis and fear of more defaults, equity markets have ...
Hot and Cold Stocks of Mutual Funds in November 2018  MoneylifeIn November 2018, Axis Bank and ICICI Bank were the most preferred stocks of Indian mutual funds.
Are mid and small-cap mutual funds holding too many illiquid stocks?  Economic TimesLiquidity has been scarce in Indian capital markets in recent weeks. Mutual funds have also not been spared the pain, with liquid and money market funds ...
Is your mutual fund buying or selling stocks too much?  LivemintA mutual fund scheme's turnover ratio tells you how frequently its fund manager buys and sells the underlying stocks. Typically, higher the turnover ratio, more ...
How stocks picked by mutual funds over 2014 to 2017 have performed  Economic TimesWhile the most wanted stocks of 2014 and 2015 have done well, the recent picks have disappointed.
How your mutual funds played the balancing act during stocks crash  Economic TimesBy Bhavana Acharya The last three months has been a bumpy ride for largecap stocks. The year so far has been unkind to the midcap and smallcap set.
Quantum Mutual Fund uses cash pile to buy stocks cheap  Economic TimesQuantum Long Term Equity Value Fund, where value investing is the pronounced fund allocation theme, has brought down the level of cash at its plan to the ...
Sebi issues new format for mutual funds' monthly report  Economic TimesFrom April 2019 onwards, AMCs will have to submit the MCR to Sebi in the new format by the third working day of each month.
Mutual funds that destroyed most investor wealth in the September selloff  Economic TimesThe recent selloff in the stock market has raised fears of a rush for redemption in mutual funds.​
What India's top three MFs bought and sold in January  Economic TimesStock funds took in a net Rs 6160 crore, the least since January 2017.
Should you shift from large-cap mutual funds to index funds?  Economic TimesThe index fund category of mutual fund schemes is slowly gaining traction among investors. The fortunes of index funds are changing as not only are they being ...
Top mutual funds still have Rs 8,650 crore exposure to DHFL & four group entities  Economic TimesAs skeletons tumble out one after another from the closets of highly leveraged companies, domestic mutual funds with exposure to such entities are finding ...
Best value-oriented equity mutual funds to invest in 2019  Economic TimesValue investing is an investment strategy that looks to buy stocks that are trading below their intrinsic value.
How do mutual funds help you to invest better?  Moneycontrol.comMutual funds can provide you products that can meet your financial goals with relatively lesser risk.
Does it make sense to invest in mutual funds when the markets are down?  Economic TimesI am looking to invest Rs 20,000 per month via SIP in mutual funds for an investment period of more than 20 years. The idea is to maximize wealth to use for my ...
Tata Motors stock crash: Over 200 mutual fund schemes own equity worth Rs 4,000 cr  Moneycontrol.comIn terms of value, more than Rs 4000 crore of mutual fund money is riding on Tata Motors, and approximately Rs 1700 crore in Tata Motors DVR.
Top fund houses are busy lapping up PSUs; what’s behind this new-found love  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: India's top three mutual funds, which manage over Rs 9 lakh crore in debt and equity assets, added a number of PSU stocks to their schemes in ...
Picking the best mutual fund: Are past returns relevant after re-categorisation?  Moneycontrol.comWhile selecting a scheme for investment or while deciding whether to continue with a current investment, a fund's performance track record does play a critical ...
Bleeding mutual funds: Should you go back to good old fixed deposits?  Moneycontrol.comAre you worried about the losses on your investments in mutual fund schemes? You are not alone. There are many investors who dumped their good old fixed ...
Fund managers' picks: Large, mid & smallcap stocks that MFs bought, sold in Dec  Moneycontrol.comMF assets declined to Rs 22.8 lakh crore in December 2018 from Rs 23.4 lakh core in Nov 2018 on the back of moderation in the flows in equity funds and ...
Five stocks that mutual funds think can outperform  Economic TimesA volatile month gave fund managers a chance to cherry-pick stocks.
Mutual fund holdings in IT stocks touch all-time high  Economic TimesMumbai: Fund managers are betting big on the IT sector, on the back of an improving global macro environment, depreciating rupee and rise in IT spends.
Mutual fund lesson: What should you do in volatile markets?  Moneycontrol.comCost of investing in equities is that it is a volatile asset class- there will be times when your portfolio value will be lower than what you invested.
Investing in equity mutual funds versus investing in shares: Which is better?  Economic TimesThe final goal for all stock investors is the same: to get superior returns. However, in terms of what you do, there are two completely different routes.
Mutual Funds For First Time Manage More Money In Stocks Than Insurers  BloombergQuintMutual funds for the first time manage more money in equities than insurers as the last stock rout erased the gap that started narrowing after demonetisation.
Is it time to invest in mid cap and small cap mutual fund schemes?  Economic TimesMany market pundits believe this is the right time to enter in small cap and mid cap segments.
Flows to India equity mutual funds smallest in 23 months as demand cool  LivemintMumbai: Flows into Indian equity mutual funds in December were the smallest in almost two years as increased market volatility and political uncertainty cooled ...
10 small equity mutual funds that have given very good risk-adjusted returns  Economic TimesMany small-sized funds have delivered handsome risk-adjusted returns. Find out why you should not ignore them.
See how they play market crash! MFs sold other stocks to lap up these 21 in October mayhem  Economic TimesPopular beaten-down stocks attracted big money from institutional investors on Dalal Street in October, when the domestic equity market was facing severe ...
Fund managers raised stake in 194 stocks in Dec quarter. Is it a good idea to follow them?  Moneycontrol.comif good or quality stocks are getting hampered with external factors, investors should use the dips to buy into stocks which they think hold long term growth ...
New to stocks? Try aggressive hybrid funds: Dhirendra Kumar  Economic TimesThe promise of a small cap is that they turn out to be a bonanza when they become a midcap or large cap, says Dhirendra Kumar, CEO, Value Research.
MFs waiting for a fall to buy stocks increase exposure to Nifty futures  Economic TimesFund managers of some large- and multi-cap schemes have been buying the Nifty futures in a bid to boost returns. A look at the factsheets of large fund houses ...
Mutual fund houses push sell button on auto and construction sectors  BusinessLineBut stock up on IT scrips amid redemption pressure.
Why your mutual fund earned you less than Nifty in recent market rally  Economic TimesThe more the number of stocks in an index, the weaker is its performance.
These are fertile grounds for long-term stock pickers, says Samir Rachh of Reliance Mutual Fund  Economic TimesSmall cap funds are going through a rough patch after a bull run in 2017. etmutualfunds.com spoke to Samir Rachh, fund manager, Reliance Small Cap Fund, ...
Mutual funds garner Rs 7,985 crore via SIPs in November  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: Retail investors continued to pour money in mutual fundS through systematic investment plans (SIPs) as the industry received Rs 7,985 crore via ...
Do not make these 7 mistakes while investing in mutual funds  Moneycontrol.comNever forget that you are investing because you have to achieve your financial goals. Investing without a goal is akin to travelling without a destination.
How diversified should a mutual fund be?  LivemintThe extent of diversification is driven by the mutual fund's strategy and the market segment it invests in.
Which mutual funds have exposure to Essel Group's companies?  Moneycontrol.comA news report stating that Essel Group's name may figure in a probe linked to demonetisation-led deposits of Rs 3,000 crore, led to a free fall of the shares of its ...
Can a US citizen invest in mutual funds in India?  Economic TimesYes, a US citizen can invest in mutual funds and other financial products such as NRI fixed deposits, stocks and more, subject to prescribed regulations.
Gross inflows into MFs dropped in Jan; 10 stocks that fund houses bought & sold  Moneycontrol.comThe equity asset value of top 20 mutual funds dropped 1.6 percent month-on-month (MoM) to Rs 8.3 lakh crore in January, thanks to the fall in the stock market ...
Best large cap mutual funds to invest in 2019  Economic TimesHere's a monthly update on our recommended large cap mutual funds to invest in 2019. The good news is that there is no change in the recommendations.
Mutual funds raise stake in equities to highest-ever level; prefer financials, consumer stocks  Moneycontrol.comDomestic mutual funds (DMFs), the largest buyers of Indian stocks during the quarter, also added the most positions in ICICI Bank and Axis Bank, and reduced ...
Essel Group strikes deal with lenders to avert pledged share crisis  Economic TimesThe Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund is the biggest investor, with an exposure of Rs 2936 cr.

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