NASDAQ 800?

In November of 2000 when the NASDAQ was trading at 3000 I wrote in this column that the NASDAQ Index would fall to 1500 and I got lots of heat for saying it. Microsoft had fallen from $129 to $60 per share. You know where they are today.

The talking heads on CNBC-TV and many of the radio stock experts are convinced we are headed back up as soon as this small "correction" is over ? and they could be right, but I seem to remember their former predictions just before the major stock indexes went over the edge of Financial Niagara Falls. Can it happen again since the market has fallen so far?

For a year the DOW has been creeping higher. The NASDAQ has gained back about 40%, but please remember the NASDAQ Index is not composed of the same stocks as it was 3 years ago and neither is the DOW. Many companies went bankrupt and others have been delisted because they do not meet the criteria to remain on the board.

Too many investors have not done their homework. Most of them only know the great bull market of 1982 to 2000. The same goes for brokers. Almost none have ever seen a bear market. I call the mutual fund managers 'children' because most of them were in diapers during the last bear of l972-74 and they discount the sudden break of 1987 as an aberration. What it amounts to is they have no idea of what to do when the brown stuff hits the fan.

It is a shame that brokers are not taught the basics of how to protect customers' money and same goes for mutual fund managers. Scores of mutual funds went out of business during the last break and others were absorbed by their big brothers in large fund families.

The market rarely crashes as it did in 1987 and usually erodes away as it did in 1972-74. Current investors have never been told about secular bull and secular bear markets that last about 16 to 18 years in each direction. During those down or at best sideways periods investors are happy to break even. This is a historical fact that you can check back for a hundred years.

If we are in this 16 years down that started in 2000 do you have a plan as to what to do to protect your financial well being? Most people don't and they refuse to accept the idea that anything like another loss of 80% can occur. Brokers don't have a plan. Fund managers don't have a plan. Do you have a plan? If you don't it is time to start thinking how you can protect what you have now. The most important thing about any investment is not to lose money.

The market today has the potential for another 2000 break. Now is the time to protect your investments. Get your stocks and mutual funds out and if you have any that have lost more than 10 or even 20% from their highest price it would be wise to sell them and remain in cash. NASDAQ 800 may not be far away.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

In The News:

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Why your mutual fund earned you less than Nifty in recent market rally  Economic TimesThe more the number of stocks in an index, the weaker is its performance.
Value focussed MF are cutting their exposure to Indian stocks. What about you?  Moneycontrol.comAs valuations climb, the funds have chosen to stay light on Indian stocks and exposure to bonds and arbitrage has gone up.
Investing in stocks needs deep understanding of markets  LivemintDirect investing into individual stocks requires deep understanding of the markets and continuous involvement into investing.
How stocks picked by mutual funds over 2014 to 2017 have performed  Economic TimesWhile the most wanted stocks of 2014 and 2015 have done well, the recent picks have disappointed.
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Mutual fund holdings in IT stocks touch all-time high  Economic TimesMumbai: Fund managers are betting big on the IT sector, on the back of an improving global macro environment, depreciating rupee and rise in IT spends.
Is it a good time to invest in small-cap mutual fund schemes?  Economic TimesDespite the slide in the Nifty Smallcap100 index, fund houses seem to be placing faith in small-cap funds again. Should investors take the cue?
These 18 consistent mutual funds may help you to beat stock market volatility  Economic TimesMany equity mutual fund advisors abhor volatility in the stock market. They are always searching for ways to tackle this beast which gives them sleepless nights.
5 strategies for investing in mutual fund in the current market to get good returns  Moneycontrol.comMutual fund investing is all about ascertaining your goals and setting out to reach them.
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Do not make these 7 mistakes while investing in mutual funds  Moneycontrol.comNever forget that you are investing because you have to achieve your financial goals. Investing without a goal is akin to travelling without a destination.
List of best mutual fund portfolios as per your risk appetite  Moneycontrol.comYou can build a portfolio of mutual fund schemes based on your risk profile.
Should I cut down my stock allocation and invest more in mutual funds?  Economic TimesMy risk appetite is moderately high and my investment horizon is 10 years. Please review my portfolio. I am investing in the following mutual fund schemes:
Some international funds are giving around 40% returns. Should you invest?  Economic TimesInternational mutual funds are topping the return charts. The category has returned around 20 per cent in one year. Should retail investors bet on these schemes ...
Mutual Funds For First Time Manage More Money In Stocks Than Insurers  BloombergQuintMutual funds for the first time manage more money in equities than insurers as the last stock rout erased the gap that started narrowing after demonetisation.
Top stocks bought and sold by mutual funds in June 2018  IndiainfolineInvestors should focus on longevity to create wealth. We advise investors to stay invested in those stocks whose growth story is still intact.
How to Invest in Mutual Funds  The Motley FoolIf you want to understand how to pick the right mutual fund for you, you've come to the right place. In the guide below, I've put together all the major pieces of ...
How diversified should a mutual fund be?  LivemintThe extent of diversification is driven by the mutual fund's strategy and the market segment it invests in.
Bleeding mutual funds: Should you go back to good old fixed deposits?  Moneycontrol.comAre you worried about the losses on your investments in mutual fund schemes? You are not alone. There are many investors who dumped their good old fixed ...
Investing in mutual funds? Diversify to reduce risks and enhance returns  Moneycontrol.comIn the worst of the times for stock markets, individuals invested across the asset classes are less hit as compared to investors betting all their money on stocks.
Fund managers' bets: Top 10 large, mid and small-cap stocks that MFs bought in October  Moneycontrol.comMF industry assets grew to Rs 22.2 lakh crore on the back of improved inflows into equity-oriented and liquid funds.
Top 10 large, mid and smallcap stocks which fund managers bought & sold in September  Moneycontrol.comFears of a liquidity crunch following the IL&FS crisis hit the mutual fund industry in September. Cash plans, or liquid funds, were the worst hit.
Kotak Mutual Fund is betting on these 5 sectors in 2019  Moneycontrol.comWhile current valuations are not cheap, the fund house expects a further pick-up in earnings.
Benefits of asset allocation in mutual funds  Economic TimesWith macros looking weak and stock market indices at a new high, financial planners believe it is important for investors to follow the principle of asset allocation.
Sebi may tighten liquid MF rules  Economic TimesBy Pavan Burugula & Reena Zachariah The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is considering a proposal to tighten rules for liquid mutual funds ...
Should you shift from large-cap mutual funds to index funds?  Economic TimesThe index fund category of mutual fund schemes is slowly gaining traction among investors. The fortunes of index funds are changing as not only are they being ...

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