Perfect Storm

Having lived aboard a sailboat for 2 years I was stricken when I saw the movie "PERFECT STORM". I know these are things you want to avoid at all costs. Even little storms can play havoc with your life style on a boat.

From a world view it looks like we are headed into a perfect storm of world macroeconomics. That means every one in the world is going to be impacted economically by the developing global economics. The more economically developed the country the worse they will be affected. Those third-world countries just working their way to becoming second-world countries can easily be set back 30 to 50 years.

What am I talking about?

People need food and shelter and after they have the basic necessities they will buy nonessentials such as entertainment and toys (boats, cars, jewelry, bigger houses, second homes, etc.). These are all purchased because the person has extra units of credit called money with which to buy the extras. In order the get that extra money he has to have a steady job. World wide there is excess productive capacity. Approximately 25% of productive machinery is idle; we are working at about 75% of capacity where the normal rate of production is between 87% and 92%. That means that many who were at those machines are now sitting at home wondering not about a new toy to buy, but how to make the next mortgage payment.

Everything looks smooth. The waters are calm and the breeze is at our back. When that perfect storm was forming in the Atlantic Ocean there did not seem to be any danger, but the meteorologists watching their satellites and computers could see that all was not well and a terrible storm was forming. They realized when it hit that ships would be at high risk.

There are meteorologists of the stock market. They are a combination of technical and fundamental analysts and it is their job to predict the stock market weather. Like weathermen the job of prediction is not easy nor is it an exact science, Many get it wrong, Today the news of the stock market and the economy is dominated by the fundamentalists who see excellent weather and tranquil seas. Many technicians see it otherwise. They are predicting that there are formations that could produce a perfect storm that will wipe out many portfolios.

Historically the timing of fundamentalist (those who follow the reports of company profits and government statistics) usually lags while the prediction of technical analysts (those who follow chart patterns and historical data) has been much more accurate.

The key to the stock market is timing. The investor wants to own stocks and mutual funds while the market is advancing and to be in cash while the market is declining.

Today the fundamentalist weathermen say buy while many technician weathermen are recommending cash. In the next few months we will see if the weather is calm or stormy.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

In The News:

Best large & mid cap mutual funds to invest in 2019  Economic TimesThe re-categorisation and rationalisation of mutual funds by Sebi last year created some new categories, including the large & mid cap mutual fund category.
Under pressure to perform well, MFs bought & sold these stocks in December quarter  Economic TimesMFs increased their stake by more than 1 per cent in at least 41 stocks.
Fund managers' picks: Large, mid & smallcap stocks that MFs bought, sold in Dec  Moneycontrol.comMF assets declined to Rs 22.8 lakh crore in December 2018 from Rs 23.4 lakh core in Nov 2018 on the back of moderation in the flows in equity funds and ...
Mutual funds may need smart bets on smallcap stocks to beat ETF show  Economic TimesSmallcap stocks could see up to ₹1 lakh cr inflow as fund managers look for potential winners: Analysts.
Hot and Cold Stocks of Mutual Funds in November 2018  MoneylifeIn November 2018, Axis Bank and ICICI Bank were the most preferred stocks of Indian mutual funds.
Money with Monika Season 2, Episode 2: Mutual funds versus direct stocks  LivemintIn this episode of Money With Monika, personal finance expert Monika Halan talks about the benefits of choosing a mutual fund over direct stock investments.
Remembering Jack Bogle, colossus of mutual fund industry  LivemintVanguard founder Jack Bogle turned the mutual fund industry on its head more than 30 years ago by thinking of and acting in the interest of the retail investor.
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Large-cap and Mid-cap Stocks Top Mutual Fund Schemes Are Betting On  MoneylifeEquity mutual funds (MFs) are run by expert stock-pickers.
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SEBI tweaks stock weightage norms for equity ETFs, index funds  Moneycontrol.comIn a circular issued to all mutual funds and asset management companies, SEBI said an index used for equity ETFs or index funds should have at least 10 stocks ...
3 Best Dimensional Mutual Funds for Strong Gains  Zacks.comBelow we share with you three top-ranked Dimensional mutual funds. Each has earned a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
3 JPMorgan Mutual Funds to Buy Now  Zacks.comBelow we share with you three top-ranked JPMorgan mutual funds. Each has earned a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
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Mutual Fund Update: Top 5 stocks that MFs sold  Dalal Street Investment JournalMutual funds are institutional investors, the buying and selling transaction of fund houses happen in huge numbers which also affects the stock prices in some or ...
Gold, mutual funds, equity - where to invest in 2019?  Moneycontrol.comAs we enter 2019, the question on everyone's mind is: can we say goodbye to market volatility that 2018 unleashed upon us? The answer may not be that simple ...
Berko: Do not invest in Chinese stocks, mutual funds  The ColumbianDear Mr. Berko: My wife and I are thinking of investing in Chinese stocks or mutual funds. If we were to buy stocks, we'd invest $10000 each in Alibaba, Noble ...
Sebi issues norms for mutual funds investments in derivatives  Moneycontrol.comCurrently, mutual fund schemes are permitted to undertake transactions in equity derivatives but cannot write options or purchase instruments with embedded ...
Year-end special: Some challenges will continue in 2019, says Jinesh Gopani of Axis Mutual Fund  Economic TimesAxis Mutual Fund is the equity fund house of the year. Axis equity schemes are toppers in almost every equity mutual fund category.
Here are 2018’s best & worst-performing mutual funds  Economic TimesThe performance of equity mutual funds was uninspiring through most of 2018, with the best-performing fund giving just 6 per cent return for the year. Among the ...
What You Owe John Bogle, Iconic American Inventor  ForbesJohn Bogle arguably did as much or more for investors than any Nobel prizewinner, although he never won one. Along with Edison and Ford, Gates and Jobs, ...
Investors pulled a record $143 billion out of active funds during December's plunge  CNBCAccording to data from Morningstar, actively managed funds experienced outflows of nearly $143 billion in December, their worst month ever.
When Rules of Thumb Fail  Morningstar.comFaulty Exits Tuesday's column discussed a research paper, “Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors,” that ...
Sebi brings cybersecurity framework for mutual funds and AMCs  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: Markets regulator Sebi Thursday put in place a robust and stricter cybersecurity framework for mutual funds and asset management companies ...
4 Small-Cap Growth Mutual Funds for 2019  Zacks.comSmall-cap funds that offer good earnings potential could be your best bet amid economic tailwinds and growth projections.
What Fund Managers Get Right  MorningstarInvestment managers typically get their equity purchases right on days of earnings results, but they are less successful at timing when to sell out of a stock.
The Best Mutual Funds to Buy in 2019  The Motley FoolHere are not only 17 mutual funds and ETFs to consider, but also tips on what to look for in great funds.
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Here's Why Stocks Have Sold Off So Steeply In December  ForbesA TV broadcast of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announcing interest rate hikes on the floor of the NYSE on Wednesday, December 19, 2018. The rest of the ...
China Trade News Lifts Stocks: Netflix, AmEx, Tesla Lag  Investor's Business DailyHints of China trade progress sent U.S. stocks and global markets higher Friday, but Netflix and Tesla posted heavy losses, hampering early gains.
Sick of Your Oil Stocks Getting Slaughtered? Try This Instead  The Motley Fool CanadaPicking individual stocks in the oil sector has been devastating for many investors. Choose an ETF like BMO Equal Weight Oil Gas Index ETF (TSX:ZEO) instead.
The Zerodha story: How the Kamath brothers built India's largest retail broker  Moneycontrol.comZerodha started its journey in 2010 with a team of five people. Today, it employs over 1300 people.
Adding Insult To Injury, Investors Dump U.S. Stocks And Buy China  ForbesMoney is flowing out of U.S. stocks and bonds. China, on the other hand, is seeing billions flowing back into its equity market.
Atlassian Stock Reverses Lower Despite Earnings, Revenue Topping Views  Investor's Business DailyAtlassian said Thursday that adjusted fiscal second-quarter earnings were 25 cents a share, nearly doubling from a year earlier, with revenue rising 39% to $299 ...
Stock market: 19 stocks to buy next year  USA TODAYWhat stocks should you buy next year? Here's a list of 19 stocks mutual fund managers say are "buys" in 2019.
Take Buffett’s Advice: 5 Vanguard Funds to Buy  Investorplace.comWarren Buffett believes index funds are the way to go for most investors, making these five 'products' from Vanguard Funds worth owning.
Stock News: Investors Keen on Shares of Southern Company (The) (NYSE:SO) as it Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Southern Company (The) (NYSE:SO) as their share price hit $46.79 at the end of the most recent trading session.
7 stocks most favoured by mutual funds over last one year  Economic TimesAs the markets hit a speed bump, stocks favoured by mutual funds appear to be safer bets.
John Bogle, Vanguard founder and index pioneer, a 'hero to investors'  The Australian Financial ReviewJohn Bogle, who popularised the low-cost index-based mutual fund as founder of Vanguard Group and insisted that most stock-picking money managers ...
Is your mutual fund buying or selling stocks too much?  LivemintHere are equity mutual fund schemes with the highest turnover.
Mutual funds bet big on these 30 stocks in November; do you own any?  Moneycontrol.comMF industry assets grew to Rs 23.4 lakh crore, on the back of improved inflows into liquid funds and steady equity markets.
Stock Focus: Investors Keen on Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM) as it Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM) as their share price hit $39.14 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stock Watch: Investors Focusing on Shares of Maxwell Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:MXWL) as Company Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Maxwell Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:MXWL) as their share price hit $2.33 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stock Focus: Investors Keen on Magellan Petroleum Corporation (:TELL) as it Makes Waves With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Magellan Petroleum Corporation (:TELL) as their share price hit $7.86 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stock Focus: Investors Keen on Windstream Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:WIN) as it Makes Waves With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Windstream Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:WIN) as their share price hit $3.05 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Fund managers ready to go shopping after sharp correction in stocks  Moneycontrol.comMutual funds that were holding around 8-10 percent cash level in their equity portfolio are likely to purchase shares of companies in banking and financial ...
Worried You're Never Going to Be Able to Retire?  Kiplinger's Personal FinanceFive common threats to your retirement (and how you can tackle them now).
Why stopping mutual fund SIPs when stock market falls can jeopardise your financial goals  Economic TimesFear has returned to Dalal Street. Caught in a perfect storm of weak macroeconomic numbers, the IL&FS crisis and fear of more defaults, equity markets have ...
Mutual funds' exposure to banks hits 3-month low of Rs 1.88 lakh crore in Sept  Economic TimesMutual funds' holding of banking stocks declined by over Rs 21,600 crore to Rs 1.88 lakh crore in September, driven by the correction in equity markets.
Check out what top five mutual funds bought & sold during October selloff  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: Mutual funds stood resilient as industry's asset base increased to Rs 22.23 lakh crore in October in spite of a heavy correction in the domestic ...
Mutual funds that destroyed most investor wealth in the September selloff  Economic TimesThe recent selloff in the stock market has raised fears of a rush for redemption in mutual funds.​
Five stocks that mutual funds think can outperform  Economic TimesA volatile month gave fund managers a chance to cherry-pick stocks.
Shall I buy the HDFC AMC stock or mutual fund?  LivemintThe HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd stock closed 65% up on the first day of listing over its IPO price of ₹1,100 per share. Investors who sold on day one, saw ...
When should you sell your mutual fund schemes? - Stocks and equity mutual funds are different  Economic TimesInvesting in an individual stock and equity mutual fund scheme is different. You must look at various parameters like key ratios while investing in a stock. Hence ...
Value focussed MF are cutting their exposure to Indian stocks. What about you?  Moneycontrol.comAs valuations climb, the funds have chosen to stay light on Indian stocks and exposure to bonds and arbitrage has gone up.
New stock ideas boost equity mutual fund portfolios  LivemintIt is imperative for mutual fund houses to beef up their research capabilities, to be able to identify more winning new ideas.
How stocks picked by mutual funds over 2014 to 2017 have performed  Economic TimesWhile the most wanted stocks of 2014 and 2015 have done well, the recent picks have disappointed.
Investing in equity mutual funds versus investing in shares: Which is better?  Economic TimesBy Dhirendra Kumar Hopefully, by now my columns have convinced you that most of your long-term investments should be in equity. The next question to be ...
Are mid and small-cap mutual funds holding too many illiquid stocks?  Economic TimesLiquidity has been scarce in Indian capital markets in recent weeks. Mutual funds have also not been spared the pain, with liquid and money market funds ...
Why your mutual fund earned you less than Nifty in recent market rally  Economic TimesThe more the number of stocks in an index, the weaker is its performance.
How your mutual funds played the balancing act during stocks crash  Economic TimesBy Bhavana Acharya The last three months has been a bumpy ride for largecap stocks. The year so far has been unkind to the midcap and smallcap set.
Small- and mid-cap mutual funds open doors again, but should you invest?  LivemintL&T Emerging Businesses Fund and DSP Small Cap Fund have allowed *fresh* mutual fund investments, taking advantage of a continued correction in small- ...
Picking the best mutual fund: Are past returns relevant after re-categorisation?  Moneycontrol.comWhile selecting a scheme for investment or while deciding whether to continue with a current investment, a fund's performance track record does play a critical ...
Best mutual funds to invest in India  Times of IndiaFAQs News: Market analyst says that it would be difficult for investors to get high returns in 2018 pointing to the volatility faced by the stock market. The inv.
Mutual fund holdings in IT stocks touch all-time high  Economic TimesMumbai: Fund managers are betting big on the IT sector, on the back of an improving global macro environment, depreciating rupee and rise in IT spends.
Is it a good time to invest in small-cap mutual fund schemes?  Economic TimesDespite the slide in the Nifty Smallcap100 index, fund houses seem to be placing faith in small-cap funds again. Should investors take the cue?
5 strategies for investing in mutual fund in the current market to get good returns  Moneycontrol.comMutual fund investing is all about ascertaining your goals and setting out to reach them.
These 18 consistent mutual funds may help you to beat stock market volatility  Economic TimesMany equity mutual fund advisors abhor volatility in the stock market. They are always searching for ways to tackle this beast which gives them sleepless nights.
Why HDFC Bank stock is among the top picks of mutual funds  Business TodayPrivate sector lender HDFC Bank, the third-largest Indian firm by market capitalisation, is among the favourite stocks in the portfolios of mutual funds. Despite ...
List of best mutual fund portfolios as per your risk appetite  Moneycontrol.comYou can build a portfolio of mutual fund schemes based on your risk profile.
Do not make these 7 mistakes while investing in mutual funds  Moneycontrol.comNever forget that you are investing because you have to achieve your financial goals. Investing without a goal is akin to travelling without a destination.
Top stocks bought and sold by mutual funds in June 2018  IndiainfolineInvestors should focus on longevity to create wealth. We advise investors to stay invested in those stocks whose growth story is still intact.
Mutual Funds For First Time Manage More Money In Stocks Than Insurers  BloombergQuintMutual funds for the first time manage more money in equities than insurers as the last stock rout erased the gap that started narrowing after demonetisation.
Some international funds are giving around 40% returns. Should you invest?  Economic TimesInternational mutual funds are topping the return charts. The category has returned around 20 per cent in one year. Should retail investors bet on these schemes ...
Investing in stocks needs deep understanding of markets  LivemintDirect investing into individual stocks requires deep understanding of the markets and continuous involvement into investing.
How to Invest in Mutual Funds  The Motley FoolIf you want to understand how to pick the right mutual fund for you, you've come to the right place. In the guide below, I've put together all the major pieces of ...
Fund managers' bets: Top 10 large, mid and small-cap stocks that MFs bought in October  Moneycontrol.comMF industry assets grew to Rs 22.2 lakh crore on the back of improved inflows into equity-oriented and liquid funds.
How to build your mutual fund portfolio from scratch  Moneycontrol.comYou need to know that there is no such thing as a "perfect mutual fund portfolio". There can be numerous reasonably good portfolios, and there's no ...
Mutual fund managers bought & sold these 20 stocks in May  Moneycontrol.comRelative valuations are attractive and around average, but midcap valuations are still looking stretched despite the recent drawdown, Morgan Stanley said in a ...
Bleeding mutual funds: Should you go back to good old fixed deposits?  Moneycontrol.comAre you worried about the losses on your investments in mutual fund schemes? You are not alone. There are many investors who dumped their good old fixed ...
Top 10 large, mid and smallcap stocks which fund managers bought & sold in September  Moneycontrol.comFears of a liquidity crunch following the IL&FS crisis hit the mutual fund industry in September. Cash plans, or liquid funds, were the worst hit.
HDFC AMC, Reliance Nippon stocks fall over 9% after Sebi caps expense ratio of mutual funds  Business TodayThe stocks of asset management companies (AMCs) fell in trade today on fears of lower revenues after market regulator Sebi capped expense ratio for mutual ...
How much do mutual fund managers invest in their own schemes?  Moneycontrol.comEver since SEBI mandated mutual fund houses to disclose how much fund managers, directors of the asset management company and other key employees ...
How diversified should a mutual fund be?  LivemintThe extent of diversification is driven by the mutual fund's strategy and the market segment it invests in.
Should you shift from large-cap mutual funds to index funds?  Economic TimesThe index fund category of mutual fund schemes is slowly gaining traction among investors. The fortunes of index funds are changing as not only are they being ...
Benefits of asset allocation in mutual funds  Economic TimesWith macros looking weak and stock market indices at a new high, financial planners believe it is important for investors to follow the principle of asset allocation.
Top 10 wealth creator mutual fund schemes of 2018  Moneycontrol.comThe IT sector has been riding on good earnings show by the IT giants in India. The depreciating rupee is in the last few years boosted the fortunes of the ...
Top 10 mutual funds which can double your wealth in long term  The Financial ExpressMutual funds are one of the most popular and smart ways for investors to build wealth over the long term. One can also double one's money, if planned properly.
Mutual Funds Four Strategies For Managing A Portfolio Of Mutual Funds  InvestopediaNow that you've built your portfolio of mutual funds, you need to know how to maintain it. Let's talk about how to manage a mutual-fund portfolio by reviewing four ...
These 10 stocks make up over one-third of entire mutual fund portfolio in India; check full list  The Financial ExpressEven as Sensex and Nifty continue their strong rally driven by a cheer in blue chip stocks, just 10 top names make up a whopping 34% of the entire mutual fund ...
Sebi may tighten liquid MF rules  Economic TimesBy Pavan Burugula & Reena Zachariah The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is considering a proposal to tighten rules for liquid mutual funds ...
Look which mutual fund categories shone & which ones faded in 2018  Economic TimesTechnology as a category stood out as the only oasis for mutual fund investors this calendar, as it managed to deliver double-digit returns to investors over the ...
Mutual Fund Investment: Should you invest in MFs when the stock market is down?  The Financial ExpressIn a situation where the stock market is down, you can actually give yourself a 'smart investor' tag by buying more units of mutual funds to benefit out of the crash.
Choose your mobile app wisely to invest in direct mutual funds  Moneycontrol.comSome mobile apps are not updated on regular basis. Often there may be errors in the stocks portfolio of several schemes.
What Is a Mutual Fund? Pros, Cons, Types and How to Invest  TheStreet.comKeep hearing about mutual funds but don't really know what they are? No sweat! TheStreet breaks down what a mutual fund is, the different kinds, and how to ...
10 mutual fund options that could be good bets as markets trend higher  Moneycontrol.comInvestment advisors feel this is time for caution and that investors should veer more towards funds with exposure towards large-caps or those that are multi-cap ...

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