Perfect Storm

Having lived aboard a sailboat for 2 years I was stricken when I saw the movie "PERFECT STORM". I know these are things you want to avoid at all costs. Even little storms can play havoc with your life style on a boat.

From a world view it looks like we are headed into a perfect storm of world macroeconomics. That means every one in the world is going to be impacted economically by the developing global economics. The more economically developed the country the worse they will be affected. Those third-world countries just working their way to becoming second-world countries can easily be set back 30 to 50 years.

What am I talking about?

People need food and shelter and after they have the basic necessities they will buy nonessentials such as entertainment and toys (boats, cars, jewelry, bigger houses, second homes, etc.). These are all purchased because the person has extra units of credit called money with which to buy the extras. In order the get that extra money he has to have a steady job. World wide there is excess productive capacity. Approximately 25% of productive machinery is idle; we are working at about 75% of capacity where the normal rate of production is between 87% and 92%. That means that many who were at those machines are now sitting at home wondering not about a new toy to buy, but how to make the next mortgage payment.

Everything looks smooth. The waters are calm and the breeze is at our back. When that perfect storm was forming in the Atlantic Ocean there did not seem to be any danger, but the meteorologists watching their satellites and computers could see that all was not well and a terrible storm was forming. They realized when it hit that ships would be at high risk.

There are meteorologists of the stock market. They are a combination of technical and fundamental analysts and it is their job to predict the stock market weather. Like weathermen the job of prediction is not easy nor is it an exact science, Many get it wrong, Today the news of the stock market and the economy is dominated by the fundamentalists who see excellent weather and tranquil seas. Many technicians see it otherwise. They are predicting that there are formations that could produce a perfect storm that will wipe out many portfolios.

Historically the timing of fundamentalist (those who follow the reports of company profits and government statistics) usually lags while the prediction of technical analysts (those who follow chart patterns and historical data) has been much more accurate.

The key to the stock market is timing. The investor wants to own stocks and mutual funds while the market is advancing and to be in cash while the market is declining.

Today the fundamentalist weathermen say buy while many technician weathermen are recommending cash. In the next few months we will see if the weather is calm or stormy.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

In The News:

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These three sectors saw highest MF inflows in May  MoneycontrolMutual funds continue to prefer bank shares in May, seeing good growth outlook, profitability and capital ratios, data released by the Securities and Exchange ...
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Index Mutual Funds: Is it wise to invest in them? Here is what experts said  Zee BusinessPick Index Mutual Funds in the large-cap segment but stick to traditional mutual funds while investing in small-cap and mid-cap segment, say experts. Get more ...
Modi government's 2nd term: Where to invest in stock market now?  Economic TimesThe return of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister has pumped adrenaline into the stock market. As it became clear on Thursday that the BJP will get a clear ...
10 NBFC stocks that have fared well despite crisis in the sector  Economic TimesNot all NBFC stocks fared poorly. Here are 10 stocks that have given extraordinary returns in the past year.
Everyone finds these stocks pricey, but $13b fund house still buying  Economic TimesThe stocks offer stability and steady growth,” said Mahesh Patil.
Top 20 under-owned stocks by FIIs and MFs as of Q4: do you own any?  Moneycontrol.comExperts are of the view that investors should not worry too much on under-ownership of stocks by FIIs as many times it offers potential opportunity for them to top ...
Stocks to watch: Hexaware Tech, HDFC AMC, Intellect Design Arena, Wockhardt  Business StandardAt 08:17 am, Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) were trading 25.50 points or 0.21 per cent lower at 11,894.50 indicating a negative start for the ...
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Consumer and bank stocks still the only stories to play: Pramod Gubbi, Marcellus  Economic TimesFor those who are looking to buy into growth stories, it is best to hold off from looking into DHFL or Yes Bank. It is a very sophisticated segment of the investor ...
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Modi 2.0 portfolio: Here's how to allocate Rs 10 lakh for next five years  Moneycontrol.comThe landmark victory not only suggests continuity of reforms but also brings an end to political uncertainty, suggest experts. The climate is just about right for ...
Under Modi 2.0, a new beginning likely for stocks, mutual funds and bond market  Zee BusinessModi 2.0 has raised hopes that the issues faced by the economy will be tackled in a firm and prudent way. Get more India News and Business News on Zee ...
Exit or hold? What you should do if your mutual fund is exposed to DHFL  Business StandardDebt funds, as a category, are hurtling from one crisis to another. After defaults by Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services and delays in payments by Essel ...
Ignore Gloomy Stock Market Warnings - Investor Actions Show Equities As Desirable  ForbesThe danger warnings of owning stocks are building, in both number and seriousness. However, the rationale is a tiresome repetition of well-known issues and, ...
Modi win makes India stock market story more exciting than ever: Chris Wood  Business StandardThe re-election of Narendra Modi as India's Prime Minister for the second consecutive term with a thumping majority is a positive and the government should ...
Sensex stocks vs Sensex index mutual fund: 5 things to know  Times NowStock market investing has garnered numerous eyeballs over the years due to the lucrative returns, high liquidity, relatively lower tax rates on long-term capital ...
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Vetri Subramaniam, UTI Mutual Fund, talks about which stock segments he favours now  Economic TimesIndia's growth trajectory has been consistent over the past two decades and many firms have performed well across cycles, Vetri Subramaniam, Group President ...
Retail Investors Should Take Exposure To Midcap Stocks Through Mutual Fund Route: Ankit Jain, Mirae Asset Global Investments  BW BusinessworldIn an interview with BW Businessworld, Ankit Jain, Fund Manager, Mirae Asset Global Investments (India), talks about Consumption led funds, lending rates and ...
Mutual Fund Update: Stocks that witnessed selling pressure from fund managers in April 2019  Dalal Street Investment JournalIn our last update, we listed the top 5 stocks that attracted fund managers in the month of April 2019. Now, let us have a look at top 5 stocks that witnessed a lot of ...
Why growth stocks are winning a tug-of-war with value shares  MarketWatchDon't miss these top money and investing features: Value stocks are trading at the steepest discount in history · Growth-stock investors can gloat over value ...
A $13-billion fund manager bets on unloved Indias consumer stocks  Business StandardFlagging Indian sales of products like toothpaste and hair oil have been a drag on the share prices of the nation's consumer goods makers, but each dip is a ...
Growth-stock mania is bad for your financial health  MarketWatchInvestors tend to buy and sell at the wrong time, reducing their potential returns.
Finance Ministry to launch ETF with bank stocks, fin institutions this fiscal  LivemintNew Delhi: The finance ministry is planning to launch an exchange traded fund (ETF) consisting of stocks of PSU banks and financial institutions this fiscal and ...
India’s second biggest fund house busy lapping up stocks that are down 45-72%  Economic TimesICICI Prudential Asset Management, the country's second-largest money manager by assets, was busy all through April lapping up beaten down stocks, when ...
How to invest in index funds to build long-term wealth  Business InsiderIndex funds are low-cost, all-in-one investments that track a specific financial market and are designed to diversify your money and minimize risk.
Sebi bars NDTV promoters Prannoy, Radhika Roy from accessing securities markets for 2 years  Economic TimesThe Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) banned Prannoy Roy and his wife Radhika Roy from being directors or holding any key managerial position ...
Blue Apron's Stock Split: What It Means For Investors  Yahoo FinanceOne of the worst-performing high-profile IPOs of the past decade made *fresh* lows on Friday after the company approved a 15-to-1 reverse stock split to maintain ...
MF SIP tips! These 5 mutual funds are best picks - Here`s how to get rich with these schemes  Zee BusinessThe mutual fund industry has continued to witness robust SIP inflows. Get more Personal Finance News and Business News on Zee Business.
Time to shop? 150 stocks at attractive valuations vs historical levels  MoneycontrolOnce short-term uncertainty subsides, investors are likely to chase value. Attractive levels are starting to emerge in the midcap universe and select opportunities ...
Stock markets @ record high: 3 tips for mutual fund investors  Times NowNew Delhi: Stock markets grab all eyeballs when the headline equity indices hit record highs or near the previous all-time high levels. From traders to long-term ...
RBI cuts repo rate by 25 bps; these 10 rate-sensitive stocks are likely to benefit the most  Moneycontrol.comThe Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), on expected lines, slashed the repo rate by 25 bps on June 6 as the growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) ...
Stocks gain on fresh buying by mutual funds in selected scrips  The News InternationalThe capital market on Friday closed positive on *fresh* buying from financial institutions and leading mutual funds, with most important scores arriving from cement ...
Hedge Fund Managers' 7 Favorite Stocks of 2019 | Stock Market News | US News  U.S News & World Report MoneyOnce every quarter, investors get a glimpse inside the minds of some of the wealthiest and most successful investors in the U.S. The U.S. Securities and ...
PPFAS mutual fund gets ready to launch 2nd equity fund in 6 years  Moneycontrol.comSix years after launching its first and only equity mutual fund (MF) scheme so far, PPFAS Asset Management is ready to launch its second equity fund, Parag ...
Ready to Invest? 12 Steps to Start Investing  The Motley FoolInvesting can be complicated and difficult -- or relatively quick and easy. Here are the steps to start building long-term wealth in the stock market.
Can Nontransparent ETFs Save Active Mgmt?  ETF.comNew ETF structure could give actively managed strategies a much-needed boost.
Top 10 stocks that mutual fund managers bought and sold in March 2019  Moneycontrol.comData for equity flows into mutual funds for March came as a breather after a weak February. An increase in net inflows in equity and income category led to the ...
Don't run out of money in retirement: 4 tips to protect savings  Fox BusinessHalf of Americans are on track to experience a potential shortfall covering essential retirement expenses.
What India's top three mutual funds bought and sold in March  Economic TimesIndias largest money manager held 1.5 trillion rupees in equities.
Mutual funds bet big on these 30 stocks in November; do you own any?  Moneycontrol.comThe Indian equity market rose about 5 percent in November but what was more heartening to see was inflows into mutual funds. Investors pumped Rs 1.4 lakh ...
Govt increases limit to disclose investment in stocks, mutual funds for employees  Moneycontrol.com*Service* rules say no government servant shall speculate in any stock, share or other investment.
What top mutual funds bought and sold last month  LivemintMumbai: Inflows into Indian equity mutual funds in January were the smallest in two years as heightened market volatility and political uncertainty cooled ...
A young investor’s guide to mutual funds  Economic TimesMany young investors, who are barely a year or two old in their career, are eager to start investing in mutual funds. ETMutualFunds.com receive many queries on ...
Mutual funds sell several blue chips stocks, buy mid-caps in March  Business StandardDomestic money managers were seen pruning their holdings in several blue-chip stocks, including Reliance Industries (RIL) and Housing Development Finance ...
Can mutual funds give multibagger returns like stocks?  Economic TimesStocks can be multibaggers. They can offer extraordinary returns in a very short period. Can mutual funds ever do that? This was a question thrown at Rajeev ...
How concentrated is your mutual fund portfolio?  LivemintA concentrated portfolio can backfire badly if the fund manager's strategy goes wrong.A portfolio with few stocks can fall sharply if share prices of most stocks in ...
What India's top three mutual funds bought and sold in February  LivemintMUMBAI: Inflows into Indian equity mutual funds in February were the smallest in more than two years as savers held back investments amid market volatility ...
7 stocks most favoured by mutual funds over last one year  Economic TimesAs the markets hit a speed bump, stocks favoured by mutual funds appear to be safer bets.
I want to invest Rs 1 crore in stocks and mutual funds for 5 years. How should I invest?  Economic TimesYou may consider the following asset allocation: 40% in large-caps; 40% in large and mid-cap, or multi-caps; and remaining 20% in mid- and small-cap funds.
Active mutual funds fail to reflect index gains  Economic TimesThe Nifty, which has hit all-time highs for the second time in April, has advanced 12% in the last one year. But these gains are yet to reflect in many mutual funds' ...
Mutual funds or direct equity investment – which is better?  Economic TimesOne big question that often dogs investors is which investing option should they opt for: mutual fund or direct equity? Katalyst Wealth's Ekansh Mittal ends your ...
The dangers of high mutual fund inflows  LivemintMutual funds have put ₹2.4 trillion into markets in the last two years.Equity mutual funds receive ₹8000 crore monthly through SIPs.
Should you invest in international mutual funds?  LivemintIf you were to sort all equity mutual funds available for retail investment by their one-year performance, international funds would come on top. The best ...
Stocks vs Mutual Funds: Which is a Better Option to Invest?  EntrepreneurStocks and Mutual Funds have their own set of hiccups, which are better to know before making your investments.
How income from stocks and mutual funds are taxed for an individual  Moneycontrol.comCapital gains from transfer of unlisted share are considered as STCG where period of holding is less than or equal to 24 months, and LTCG when holding period ...
Why your core equity portfolio should be in index mutual funds  Economic TimesInvestors flock to the performing fund “after” it has beaten the index. Fund selection is not an exact science, and there will be hits and misses.
What to do if your mutual fund scheme earns more return than your investment  Economic TimesAre the returns shown in your mutual fund account statement same as the returns delivered by your fund? It is quite likely that you might have earned less than ...
Top 30 stocks that fund managers bought & sold in March; do you own any?  Moneycontrol.comData for equity flows into a mutual funds for March came as a breather after a weak February. Increase in net inflows in equity and income category led to the ...
Investment limits Sebi prescribes for mutual funds  LivemintDid you know that there are guard rails that the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has put in place to protect you from the risks of over-exposure to a ...
Mutual Funds increase holding in ‘attractively valued’ oil & gas stocks  Economic TimesMUMBAI: Mutual funds have been adding shares of oil and gas companies such as GAIL, HPCL, BPCL and ONGC over the last few months, encouraged by ...
Mutual funds shooting themselves in the foot?  Economic TimesWhat if banks take a leaf out of Kotak and HDFC Mutual Funds' decision to direct investors to come another day to get their money instead of paying them on the ...
What top 5 money managers bought and sold in February  Economic TimesFebruary was the fourth consecutive month of decline in net investment into equity mutual funds.
27-year-old rule changed: Disclosure limit on MF, stock investment up for bureaucrats  Economic TimesGroup A and B officials had to intimate government if total transaction in shares or MFs exceeded Rs 50K.
Fund managers ready to go shopping after sharp correction in stocks  Moneycontrol.comDomestic fund managers are capitalising on the market fall and buying shares as they feel the valuations have become attractive after a sharp correction in the ...
Here are 30 stocks that fund managers bought & sold in February  Moneycontrol.comEven the month of February witnessed the lowest inflow in equity mutual funds in the last 2 years. Only Rs 5122 crore of *fresh* inflows took place in equity funds.
Here are a few mutual funds that stocked up on YES Bank in Q4FY19  Business StandardShares of YES Bank tanked 30 per cent in trade on Tuesday, after the bank reported a massive Rs 1,507 crore loss in the fourth quarter of financial year 2018-19 ...
Top 8 most common mutual fund investing mistakes and how to avoid them  Business StandardMutual funds garnered Rs 8,022 crore of its assets by way of SIPs in December 2018, 29 per cent higher than the previous year | Illustration: Binay Sinha ...
Common investment mistakes to avoid  LivemintRemember, time in the market is key, so don't get affected by volatile conditions.Here are some common mistakes you should avoid while investing.
Investing in mutual funds? Size of fund doesn't matter  Economic TimesA bigger MF is not always a better fund. If you come across a well-performing small fund, invest in it.
New SIP investors feel the pain as equity fund returns disappoint  Economic TimesSip by sip: That's how the average Indian had a taste of equities in the past couple of years. But the steady road to riches, which involved monthly mutual fund ...
Diversify equity portfolio with international funds  Economic TimesAs a part of diversifying your equity portfolio, wealth managers believe investors should diversify geographically using mutual funds. They can do this by ...

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