Which Way The Market

I am hearing predictions by brokers, financial planners, talk show hosts and the talking heads on TV that the market is going back to its old highs - DOW 11,700 and NASDAQ 5000 here we come.

It seems to me that in 2000 I heard these same people saying there was no top to the market and were looking into their crystal balls for DOW 30,000 or some other fantastic number. Suddenly the market turned over with the DOW dropping 3,000 points and the NASDAQ losing 80% of its value. Can it happen again? I don't predict and all I can say is the market can do anything.

BUT what if it does turn down? Are you going to sit as you did before and watch your money disappear? Right now everything looks rosy and the momentum is carrying the indexes higher almost every day. Buy and hold is the right strategy.

Hind sight is always 20/20 and you will want to own stocks and mutual funds now, but not get caught in the next down draft. There will be one! There always has and you can see it clearly if you are a student of market history. Since 1900 there have been 16 to 18-year cycles of bull and bear markets and within those there have been other shorter cycles of ups and downs.

Many brokers and investors try to predict when those turns will occur and they are mostly wrong. It is definitely not a good idea to try to outguess the market. You must learn to read the rather obvious signs of the major turns. I say obvious, but it is clear they are not obvious to most brokers or financial planners. Having been a professional trader, exchange member and floor trader for many years I will tell you the obvious 'secret'.

Using a 200-day moving average of any one of the major indexes (I prefer the S&P500) you can plot these every day and when the index penetrates the 200-day line in an upward direction it is a signal to buy. That is where we are now. Inversely when it penetrates that line going down it is time to sell and put your money in cash or bonds. If you don't want to do the math computations there is an excellent chart in the Investor's Business Daily newspaper called their Mutual Fund Index that will do all the work for you.

It is nothing more complicated than that and you can go back into history as far as you wish and you will see it proven time after time. You are holding stocks or funds while the market is going up and you are in cash while it is going down. Don't be fooled by "research" or by any other complicated method. This works.

There is no need to predict the market. It will tell you in simple language what it is doing and whether you should be a buyer or seller.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

In The News:

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Here's a list of top stocks bought and sold by mutual funds in February  CNBCTV18Indian shares were flat—down 0.4 percent—for the third consecutive month in February 2019, as the street exercised caution amid a flurry of unsupportive ...
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How income from stocks and mutual funds are taxed for an individual  Moneycontrol.comCapital gains from transfer of unlisted share are considered as STCG where period of holding is less than or equal to 24 months, and LTCG when holding period ...
Fund managers ready to go shopping after sharp correction in stocks  Moneycontrol.comMutual funds that were holding around 8-10 percent cash level in their equity portfolio are likely to purchase shares of companies in banking and financial ...
Stock Update: Investors Keen on Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE:LNC) as it Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE:LNC) as their share price hit $60.47 at the end of the most recent trading session.
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How stocks picked by mutual funds over 2014 to 2017 have performed  Economic TimesWhile the most wanted stocks of 2014 and 2015 have done well, the recent picks have disappointed.
What top mutual funds bought and sold last month  LivemintMumbai: Inflows into Indian equity mutual funds in January were the smallest in two years as heightened market volatility and political uncertainty cooled ...
Stock Watch: Investors Keen on OSI Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSIS) as it Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over OSI Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSIS) as their share price hit $88.02 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stock News: Investors Keen on Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK.B) as it Makes Waves With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK.B) as their share price hit $204.43 at the end of the most recent trading session.
The dangers of high mutual fund inflows  LivemintMutual funds have put ₹2.4 trillion into markets in the last two years.Equity mutual funds receive ₹8000 crore monthly through SIPs.
Mutual funds' exposure to banks hits 3-month low of Rs 1.88 lakh crore in Sept  Economic TimesMutual funds' holding of banking stocks declined by over Rs 21,600 crore to Rs 1.88 lakh crore in September, driven by the correction in equity markets.
Stock Review: Investors Taking a Second Look at McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) After Recent Market Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) as their share price hit $186.37 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Does it make sense to invest in mutual funds when the markets are down?  Economic TimesI am looking to invest Rs 20,000 per month via SIP in mutual funds for an investment period of more than 20 years. The idea is to maximize wealth to use for my ...
New stock ideas boost equity mutual fund portfolios  LivemintThe sharp spurt in assets under management (AUM) in mutual funds in recent years appears to have compelled fund managers to venture out of their comfort ...
Stock Update: Investors Keen on Shares of Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. (NYSE:APLE) as it Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. (NYSE:APLE) as their share price hit $16.4 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stock Review: Investors Keen on Shares of LiveXLive Media, Inc. (OTCMKTS:LIVX) as it Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over LiveXLive Media, Inc. (OTCMKTS:LIVX) as their share price hit $6.17 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Why HDFC Bank stock is among the top picks of mutual funds  Business TodayPrivate sector lender HDFC Bank, the third-largest Indian firm by market capitalisation, is among the favourite stocks in the portfolios of mutual funds. Despite ...
Shall I buy the HDFC AMC stock or mutual fund?  LivemintThe HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd stock closed 65% up on the first day of listing over its IPO price of ₹ 1,100 per share. Investors who sold on day one, saw ...
National Bank of Canada (OTCMKTS:NTIOF): Headlining Stock Attracting Attention  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over National Bank of Canada (OTCMKTS:NTIOF) as their share price hit $46.7729 at the end of the most recent trading ...
Is it a good time to invest in small-cap mutual fund schemes?  Economic TimesBears have taken control of the small and mid-cap territories in the stock markets. The Nifty Smallcap100 index has plunged nearly 27% this year, after a 3-4 ...
Mutual funds garner over Rs 65,000 crore in Jan  Economic TimesMUMBAI: The mutual fund industry added assets worth Rs 65,439 crore in January 2019, taking total assets under management to Rs 23.37 lakh crore.
Stock in Focus: Investors Taking a Second Look at Standex International Corporation (NYSE:SXI)  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Standex International Corporation (NYSE:SXI) as their share price hit $74.49 at the end of the most recent trading session ...
Stock Review: Investors Keen on Amalgamated Bank (:AMAL) as it Makes Waves With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Amalgamated Bank (:AMAL) as their share price hit $16.46 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Gold, mutual funds, equity - where to invest in 2019?  Moneycontrol.comAs we enter 2019, the question on everyone's mind is: can we say goodbye to market volatility that 2018 unleashed upon us? The answer may not be that simple ...
Mutual funds may need smart bets on smallcap stocks to beat ETF show  Economic TimesSmallcap stocks could see up to ₹1 lakh cr inflow as fund managers look for potential winners: Analysts.
Why stopping mutual fund SIPs when stock market falls can jeopardise your financial goals  Economic TimesFear has returned to Dalal Street. Caught in a perfect storm of weak macroeconomic numbers, the IL&FS crisis and fear of more defaults, equity markets have ...
Stock Watch: Investors Keen on Bank Of Montreal (NYSE:BMO) as it Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Bank Of Montreal (NYSE:BMO) as their share price hit $76.52 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stock Update: Investors Keen on Shares of First Mid-Illinois Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:FMBH) as it Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over First Mid-Illinois Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:FMBH) as their share price hit $32.81 at the end of the most recent trading ...
Stock Update: Investors Keen on Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) as it Makes Waves With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) as their share price hit $72.26 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stock News: Investors Keen on Neogen Corporation (NASDAQ:NEOG) as it Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Neogen Corporation (NASDAQ:NEOG) as their share price hit $63.97 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stock Update: Investors Keen on Shares of Cousins Properties Incorporated (NYSE:CUZ) as it Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Cousins Properties Incorporated (NYSE:CUZ) as their share price hit $10.04 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Why stock market volatility is beneficial for mutual fund SIP investors  Economic TimesWhile investing through systematic investment plans, you make more money precisely because the markets are facing volatility.
When should you sell your mutual fund schemes? - Stocks and equity mutual funds are different  Economic TimesInvesting in an individual stock and equity mutual fund scheme is different. You must look at various parameters like key ratios while investing in a stock. Hence ...
Stock Review: Investors Keen on KAR Auction Services, Inc (NYSE:KAR) as it Makes Waves With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over KAR Auction Services, Inc (NYSE:KAR) as their share price hit $49.72 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Market Watch: Investors Keen on AXOS FINANCIAL, INC (:AX) as it Makes Waves With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over AXOS FINANCIAL, INC (:AX) as their share price hit $29.56 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Mutual fund investing for the conservative: Should you stick to largecap funds only?  Moneycontrol.comFinancial planners advocate investing in equity mutual funds to beat inflation and build a corpus that will cater to one's future needs, even if one is a conservative ...
What India's top three MFs bought and sold in January  Economic TimesStock funds took in a net Rs 6160 crore, the least since January 2017.
Equity Watch: Investors Keen on Shares of Newmark Group, Inc. (:NMRK) as it Makes Headlines With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Newmark Group, Inc. (:NMRK) as their share price hit $8.86 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Is your mutual fund buying or selling stocks too much?  LivemintA mutual fund scheme's turnover ratio tells you how frequently its fund manager buys and sells the underlying stocks. Typically, higher the turnover ratio, more ...
Hot and Cold Stocks of Mutual Funds in November 2018  MoneylifeIn November 2018, Axis Bank and ICICI Bank were the most preferred stocks of Indian mutual funds.
Stock in Focus: Investors Taking a Second Look at Alamos Gold Inc. (NYSE:AGI)  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Alamos Gold Inc. (NYSE:AGI) as their share price hit $5.25 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Sebi issues new format for mutual funds' monthly report  Economic TimesFrom April 2019 onwards, AMCs will have to submit the MCR to Sebi in the new format by the third working day of each month.
Quantum Mutual Fund uses cash pile to buy stocks cheap  Economic TimesQuantum Long Term Equity Value Fund, where value investing is the pronounced fund allocation theme, has brought down the level of cash at its plan to the ...
How your mutual funds played the balancing act during stocks crash  Economic TimesBy Bhavana Acharya The last three months has been a bumpy ride for largecap stocks. The year so far has been unkind to the midcap and smallcap set.
Should you shift from large-cap mutual funds to index funds?  Economic TimesThe index fund category of mutual fund schemes is slowly gaining traction among investors. The fortunes of index funds are changing as not only are they being ...
Self-employed or freelancing? Here are two easy ways to boost your retirement savings  Motley Fool UKWorking for yourself and not entitled to a workplace pension? Here are two ways that you can boost your own pension.
Stocks in the News: Investors Keen on Douglas Dynamics, Inc. (NYSE:PLOW) as it Makes Waves With Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Douglas Dynamics, Inc. (NYSE:PLOW) as their share price hit $38 at the end of the most recent trading session.
Stocks in the News: Investors Taking a Second Look at Systemax Inc. (NYSE:SYX) After Recent Market Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over Systemax Inc. (NYSE:SYX) as their share price hit $21.54 at the end of the most recent trading session.

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