Patterns

The Law of Chaos is the theory of random unpredictable action applied to the cosmos, mathematics, mechanics, almost everything. Those who believe it will definitely think the stock market is in chaotic state at this time. Don't you believe it.

When I was a floor trader people would ask me how do you make sense of what is going on with all that yelling and arm-waving? To the uninitiated it does look turbulent, but to those who are in the middle it is understandable and orderly. It took me a while before it became "normal".

Your broker at this time may be telling you that such-an-such stock is a great "value" because it has come down so far. Don't believe this Wall Street myth. It will only cost you money. Cash is your best position right now. Look at the pattern as shown on a stock chart.

When the trend is down never try to pick the bottom. Here are two glaring examples. Cisco went to $82. When it came down was Cisco a great buy at $65? Did your broker call you? Now it is $11 and headed for $?? Lucent looked like a buy at $60 and now it is 77 cents down from 77 dollars! Is this chaos or is there an orderly pattern to this mess? The lesson here is never buy any stock or mutual fund that is in a downtrend and if you own something that is, sell it immediately.

To those of us who have studied the price patterns of individual stocks and market indexes we see a road map (stock chart) of what has happened and have a good idea where it is going. It is not random. Many brokers will tell you this can't be done and that charts tell you nothing. That is because they have not taken the time to learn their trade. Technical analysis is more important than fundamental analysis. Over any period of time a good technical analyst will beat the shirt, pants, underwear and socks off a fundamental analyst because fundamentals don't give timing. Fundamentals are the background for a major move.

There is an orderly pattern in all this seeming chaotic price action of the stock market. To become a serious trader and money-maker you must study it in order to make it a useful tool for you investments, Otherwise, you are at the mercy of brokers, financial planners, bankers and other "experts" who know as little as you.

Copyright Albert W. Thomas All rights reserved Author of "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!"

www.mutualfundmagic.com; email to [email protected]

In The News:

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Five stocks that mutual funds think can outperform  Economic TimesA volatile month gave fund managers a chance to cherry-pick stocks.
Is it a good time to invest in small-cap mutual fund schemes?  Economic TimesDespite the slide in the Nifty Smallcap100 index, fund houses seem to be placing faith in small-cap funds again. Should investors take the cue?
Mutual fund lesson: What should you do in volatile markets?  Moneycontrol.comCost of investing in equities is that it is a volatile asset class- there will be times when your portfolio value will be lower than what you invested.
How stocks picked by mutual funds over 2014 to 2017 have performed  Economic TimesWhile the most wanted stocks of 2014 and 2015 have done well, the recent picks have disappointed.
How your mutual funds played the balancing act during stocks crash  Economic TimesBy Bhavana Acharya The last three months has been a bumpy ride for largecap stocks. The year so far has been unkind to the midcap and smallcap set.
Why HDFC Bank stock is among the top picks of mutual funds  Business TodayPrivate sector lender HDFC Bank, the third-largest Indian firm by market capitalisation, is among the favourite stocks in the portfolios of mutual funds. Despite ...
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Fund managers' picks: Large, mid & smallcap stocks that MFs bought, sold in Dec  Moneycontrol.comMF assets declined to Rs 22.8 lakh crore in December 2018 from Rs 23.4 lakh core in Nov 2018 on the back of moderation in the flows in equity funds and ...
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Does it make sense to invest in mutual funds when the markets are down?  Economic TimesI am looking to invest Rs 20,000 per month via SIP in mutual funds for an investment period of more than 20 years. The idea is to maximize wealth to use for my ...
Bleeding mutual funds: Should you go back to good old fixed deposits?  Moneycontrol.comAre you worried about the losses on your investments in mutual fund schemes? You are not alone. There are many investors who dumped their good old fixed ...
Investing in equity mutual funds versus investing in shares: Which is better?  Economic TimesThe final goal for all stock investors is the same: to get superior returns. However, in terms of what you do, there are two completely different routes.
Fund managers' bets: Top 10 large, mid and small-cap stocks that MFs bought in October  Moneycontrol.comMF industry assets grew to Rs 22.2 lakh crore on the back of improved inflows into equity-oriented and liquid funds.
Top 10 wealth creator mutual fund schemes of 2018  Moneycontrol.comThe IT sector has been riding on good earnings show by the IT giants in India. The depreciating rupee is in the last few years boosted the fortunes of the ...
Top 10 mutual funds which can double your wealth in long term  The Financial ExpressMutual funds are one of the most popular and smart ways for investors to build wealth over the long term. One can also double one's money, if planned properly.
Do not make these 7 mistakes while investing in mutual funds  Moneycontrol.comNever forget that you are investing because you have to achieve your financial goals. Investing without a goal is akin to travelling without a destination.
Mutual funds that destroyed most investor wealth in the September selloff  Economic TimesThe recent selloff in the stock market has raised fears of a rush for redemption in mutual funds.​
Stock Review: Investors Taking a Second Look at KLR Energy Acquisition Corp. (NASDAQ:ROSE) After Recent Market Moves  The Coin GuildMajor market players are buzzing over KLR Energy Acquisition Corp. (NASDAQ:ROSE) as their share price hit $3.02 at the end of the most recent trading ...
Picking the best mutual fund: Are past returns relevant after re-categorisation?  Moneycontrol.comWhile selecting a scheme for investment or while deciding whether to continue with a current investment, a fund's performance track record does play a critical ...
See how they play market crash! MFs sold other stocks to lap up these 21 in October mayhem  Economic TimesPopular beaten-down stocks attracted big money from institutional investors on Dalal Street in October, when the domestic equity market was facing severe ...
Top 10 large, mid and smallcap stocks which fund managers bought & sold in September  Moneycontrol.comFears of a liquidity crunch following the IL&FS crisis hit the mutual fund industry in September. Cash plans, or liquid funds, were the worst hit.
Why your mutual fund earned you less than Nifty in recent market rally  Economic TimesThe more the number of stocks in an index, the weaker is its performance.
These 18 consistent mutual funds may help you to beat stock market volatility  Economic TimesMany equity mutual fund advisors abhor volatility in the stock market. They are always searching for ways to tackle this beast which gives them sleepless nights.
These 10 stocks make up over one-third of entire mutual fund portfolio in India; check full list  The Financial ExpressEven as Sensex and Nifty continue their strong rally driven by a cheer in blue chip stocks, just 10 top names make up a whopping 34% of the entire mutual fund ...
How do mutual funds help you to invest better?  Moneycontrol.comMutual funds can provide you products that can meet your financial goals with relatively lesser risk.
Should you shift from large-cap mutual funds to index funds?  Economic TimesThe index fund category of mutual fund schemes is slowly gaining traction among investors. The fortunes of index funds are changing as not only are they being ...
Value focussed MF are cutting their exposure to Indian stocks. What about you?  Moneycontrol.comAs valuations climb, the funds have chosen to stay light on Indian stocks and exposure to bonds and arbitrage has gone up.
Some international funds are giving around 40% returns. Should you invest?  Economic TimesInternational mutual funds are topping the return charts. The category has returned around 20 per cent in one year. Should retail investors bet on these schemes ...
Planning an SIP in mutual funds? Keep these things in mind  Moneycontrol.comYou should identify a fund which has not only performed well when the markets are rising but also tackled the tides of a falling market and has controlled losses.
Here are top buys and sells by mutual funds in August when Sensex, Nifty hit record highs  Moneycontrol.comAmong largecaps, HDFC AMC, Sun TV Network, TVS Motor, Vedanta and Tech Mahindra topped the August buying list of top 10 mutual fund houses which ...
India is set for a good run in 2019, says Reliance Mutual Fund  Moneycontrol.comManish Gunwani, CIO-Equity at Reliance MF, the market is positioned well in terms of valuation and macros.
10 mutual fund options that could be good bets as markets trend higher  Moneycontrol.comInvestment advisors feel this is time for caution and that investors should veer more towards funds with exposure towards large-caps or those that are multi-cap ...
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala`s success mantra: How to make money with Mutual Fund SIP, stock trading  Zee BusinessRakesh Jhunjhunwala's success mantra: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is an inspiration for all aspiring stock traders or investors. The investment wizard's tips, his ...
How much do mutual fund managers invest in their own schemes?  Moneycontrol.comEver since SEBI mandated mutual fund houses to disclose how much fund managers, directors of the asset management company and other key employees ...
How to build your mutual fund portfolio from scratch  Moneycontrol.comYou need to know that there is no such thing as a "perfect mutual fund portfolio". There can be numerous reasonably good portfolios, and there's no ...
Mutual funds data show market is running out of fuel  Moneycontrol.comThe sharp fall in net equity mutual fund inflows in December 2018 is a cause of worry.

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