This Market Is Different

All of the talking heads have been telling us that this market is different. You are going to have to be patient and soon (hopefully in your lifetime) the DOW and the Nasdaq will be back at their old highs. They cite all the statistics about how the economy is improving - consumers are spending, the consumer confidence index looks OK, unemployment is getting better, blah, blah, blah.

Those trees are all nice, but they better step back and look at the forest. It's on fire and going up in smoke. The major trend has been down since the beginning of 2000 and is continuing with only occasional brief upward movements. The Dow lost 6% in 2000 and another 7% in 2001 and so far this year is off almost 8%. I won't mention the Nasdaq. That is ugly.

From 1931 to 1951 the economy doubled. The Gross Domestic Product was up 100% yet the stock market did nothing for 20 years. What few investors that were left after the '29 Crash made their money from dividends not stock price appreciation. It took 25 years for the stock market to go back up to the 1929 high.

Why are we in a bear market that can last for many years when things look so good? There does not seem to be a correlation between a good economy and stock prices. For more than 100 years the P/E ratio for the S&P500 index has been about 15. Today it is 41. That is figured on the earnings of a company paying you back your money in 41 years. YEARS! Are you kidding? I'll need my money before that. Very simply this is telling you that the stock market is very over-valued. Either corporate productivity must increase dramatically or stock prices must come down. Right now it looks like the latter is happening. So far about $6 trillion (that's with a 'T') has vanished from stockholders portfolios these last 2 years. Nobody else got it. It's just gone. It was all paper profit anyway.

Your broker tells you you don't have a loss until you sell and not to worry as the market always comes back - except when it doesn't. Since 1920 there have 3 major bull markets that have lasted about 16 years. The last one started about 1982 and ended at 2000. Each one of the bulls has been followed by a sideways to down market for the next 16 years. I am no soothsayer, but this has all the makings of one of those 16-year periods. What to do?

There is only one thing that is prudent until the carnage stops. Sell out of all stocks and stock mutual funds except no-load bond funds. (It is not too late to sell.) There are many good ones such as Government, International and Mortgage Backed no-load bond funds with varying lengths of maturity. It may not be exciting like the 1998-99 run up, but you will have your money when the dust settles.

This market is different. It's a bear.

Al Thomas' best selling book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter to receive his market letter for 3 months at www.mutualfundmagic.com to discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Comments to [email protected]

Copyright Albert W. Thomas All rights reserved.

In The News:

Financial planners recommend new fund from Mirae Mutual Fund  Economic TimesConsistent performance of the existing equity mutual fund schemes at Mirae has prompted financial planners to suggest the Mirae Asset Focused Fund to ...
I want to invest Rs 1 crore in stocks and mutual funds for 5 years. How should I invest?  Economic TimesYou may consider the following asset allocation: 40% in large-caps; 40% in large and mid-cap, or multi-caps; and remaining 20% in mid- and small-cap funds.
Top 10 stocks that mutual fund managers bought and sold in March 2019  Moneycontrol.comData for equity flows into mutual funds for March came as a breather after a weak February. An increase in net inflows in equity and income category led to the ...
What India's top three mutual funds bought and sold in March  Economic TimesIndias largest money manager held 1.5 trillion rupees in equities.
Down, up and falling again: Is it time to bet on Tata Motors?  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: Shares of Tata Motors declined 5 per cent in morning trade on Wednesday and were on course to extend their losing streak into the third ...
Stick to largecaps, buy financials, consumption stocks on dips: Jinesh Gopani, Axis Mutual Fund  Economic TimesStick to the few stories which are growing and be careful on the portfolio, says Gopani.
Mirae Asset launches its first equity focused mutual fund  LivemintMirae Asset Focused Fund, an open-ended equity scheme, will be investing in a maximum of 30 stocks.The fund manager has the flexibility to invest across ...
Small-cap fund from Principal MF  BusinessLinePrincipal Mutual Fund launched Principal Small Cap Fund — an open-ended equity scheme predominantly investing in small-cap stocks on Monday. The new ...
BJP’s Amit Shah has diversified stock investment portfolio; Rahul Gandhi prefers mutual funds  Economic TimesShah held shares worth Rs 17.56 cr as of March 22, while Gandhi has MFs worth Rs 5.19 cr.
Mutual funds shooting themselves in the foot?  Economic TimesWhat if banks take a leaf out of Kotak and HDFC Mutual Funds' decision to direct investors to come another day to get their money instead of paying them on the ...
MFs used March rally to realign holdings; so what’s the ‘in’ thing this poll season  Economic TimesThe quarter witnessed a deterioration in mutual fund flows into equities.
IT, bank stocks in focus as MFs raise stake in 185 companies in March quarter  Moneycontrol.comMutual funds raised stake in as many as 185 companies while reducing in 178 companies in the March quarter, according to the shareholding data declared by ...
Relief for investors as mutual funds chose SpiceJet, IndiGo over Jet Airways  LivemintFive actively managed mutual funds held shares in Jet Airways as of March 2019, as compared to 89 in IndiGo and 24 in SpiceJet.SpiceJet shares have gained ...
Mutual funds sell several blue chips stocks, buy mid-caps in March  Business StandardDomestic money managers were seen pruning their holdings in several blue-chip stocks, including Reliance Industries (RIL) and Housing Development Finance ...
Birla MF looks to parachute out of Jet Airways crashing stock  Business StandardBirla Sun Life Mutual Fund (MF) — the only fund house holding Jet Airways shares in its actively managed schemes — off-loaded Rs 13 crore worth of shares in ...
Investing In Stocks: How Best Mutual Funds Help Spot The Best Stocks  Investor's Business DailyLooking for the best stocks to buy and watch? Start by seeing if the stocks you're watching are owned by the leading funds in IBD Mutual Fund Index.
Mutual funds or direct equity investment – which is better?  Economic TimesOne big question that often dogs investors is which investing option should they opt for: mutual fund or direct equity? Katalyst Wealth's Ekansh Mittal ends your ...
Consumer Stocks Could Be Good Bet Against Mutual Fund Crowd, Strategist Says  Barron'sGoing against the wisdom of the crowd, Savita Subramanian tells investors to build up sectors that haven't attracted as much hedge and mutual fund interest.
Best ELSS funds to invest in FY 2019-20  Economic TimesHere are four ELSS schemes that are relatively new but have delivered superior risk-adjusted returns.
Investors sent net $3.99 bln into U.S. stock mutual funds, ETFs last week -ICI  Yahoo FinanceThe move back into the U.S. stock market came amid a rally that has sent the benchmark S&P 500 up by 17% year-to-date. It has been supported by a dovish ...
Homegrown MFs pip foreign funds to bag top slots in India  Economic TimesLarge homegrown mutual funds have pipped some longtime foreign funds as the top institutional investors in the Indian stock market. Out of the top five ...
Flows to equity mutual funds rebound as rally spurs risk appetite  Economic TimesStock funds took in about 118 billion rupees ($1.7 billion), the highest since October.
Common investment mistakes to avoid  LivemintRemember, time in the market is key, so don't get affected by volatile conditions.Here are some common mistakes you should avoid while investing.
Here's what millennials can do to make money from equity market  Moneycontrol.comDirect equities may not be the best option for those who are starting out; stick to mutual funds' systematic investment plans.
4 Dividend Mutual Funds for Q2  NasdaqInvestors who aren't willing to partake in risks may find dividend-yielding mutual funds the right investment in the current global economic.
5 Numbers to Watch to Spot the Next Recession  FortuneToday's good times can't last forever. Here's how to decode the economy's messages before a bear market eats your savings.
Mirae Asset India Equity Fund to be reclassified as large cap - What should investors do?  LivemintMirae Asset's flagship equity scheme, the ₹10,560-crore Mirae Asset India Equity fund is being reclassified from multi-cap to large-cap and will be known as ...
75% midcap, smallcap funds outperformed their benchmarks in 2018  Economic TimesDespite broader market facing challenging environment in 2018, around 75 per cent actively managed midcap and smallcap equity funds outpaced their ...
Stock market investing: Gerry Frigon reveals his most valuable picks  Business InsiderGerry Frigon, the lead manager of the Taylor Frigon Core Growth Fund, shares his unique approach to filling out a stock portfolio — one that leads to his buying ...
Paytm Money Gets Approval For Stock Trading; Will This App Disrupt $2.3 Trillion Stock Market?  Trak.inPaytm Money has got the approval from SEBI to launch stock market trading on its platform; Mutual funds is already sold via Paytm Money.
Cannabis stocks take a breather as Jefferies reiterates CannTrust is a conviction buy  MarketWatchCannabis stocks were mostly lower Tuesday, as investors took a breather after Monday's gains to lock in profits and await the next developments in the sector.
Investors’ widely held beliefs about ETFs and index funds may be wrong  MarketWatchLow-cost funds may be fixing the wrong problem, new data suggest.
7 Best Small-Cap Funds to Buy and Hold  U.S News & World Report MoneySmall-cap mutual funds or exchange-traded funds come with risks, but can produce higher returns.
‘How is this possible?’ Analysts puzzle over stock market’s rally amid equity-fund exodus  MarketWatchU.S. stocks at the end of March posted their best quarter in nearly a decade, but they did so without help from investors in U.S. stock mutual funds and ...
This overlooked group of stocks can give you better returns with less risk over time  MarketWatchWill Muggia of Westfield Capital Management discusses Lululemon, Palo Alto Networks and other mid-cap stocks.
Why Are Wealth Management Stocks Under Pressure?  Motley FoolOne of our Industry Focus: Financials listeners recently asked why wealth management firms like BlackRock (NYSE: BK) have been such lousy performers ...
7 No-Load Mutual Funds to Buy  Investorplace.comA mutual fund load is real nuisance because it goes to compensate a middleman These no-load mutual funds let you keep more of your money.
450 fund schemes own this priciest lender & red flag is up on valuation  Economic TimesThe stock is favourites among both funds managers and market analysts.
Growth Stock Mutual Funds Racked Up Impressive Returns In Q1 On Easy Fed And Better Data  Investor's Business DailyLarge-cap growth stock mutual funds had the upper hand among the top-performing stock funds in March, rising 2.43%. Midcap growth funds led in Q1 with a ...
Stocks plunge 498 points to hit three-year low  DAWN.comKARACHI: Stocks tumbled on Tuesday and extended the earlier day's decline as the investors' faith in the prevailing economic situation hit rock bottom, taking its ...
Why Tesla is such a battleground stock  CNBCElon Musk's Tesla is a classic battleground stock involving Wall Street hedge fund shorts; long-term investors; traditional, rich industries like autos and oil that ...
7 stocks most favoured by mutual funds over last one year  Economic TimesAs the markets hit a speed bump, stocks favoured by mutual funds appear to be safer bets.
The dangers of survivorship bias, Canada’s most hated stock, and an argument against dividend stocks  The Globe and MailSurvivorship bias is a psychological tendency that not only warps perspective for investors, but people in all walks of life. It must be guarded against. Hollywood ...
Can mutual funds give multibagger returns like stocks?  Economic TimesStocks can be multibaggers. They can offer extraordinary returns in a very short period. Can mutual funds ever do that? This was a question thrown at Rajeev ...
A contrarian argues against building wealth and creating income through dividend stocks  The Globe and MailPortfolio manager Benjamin Felix explains why he thinks investing for dividend income is one of the most romanticized ideas in personal finance.
Govt tweaks rules, increases limit to disclose investment in stocks, mutual funds for employees  Economic TimesNew Delhi: The Centre has increased the over 26-year-old monetary limit on disclosure of investment in shares and mutual funds by employees to six months of ...
Mutual funds bet big on these 30 stocks in November; do you own any?  Moneycontrol.comThe Indian equity market rose about 5 percent in November but what was more heartening to see was inflows into mutual funds. Investors pumped Rs 1.4 lakh ...
Check out what top five mutual funds bought & sold during October selloff  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: Mutual funds stood resilient as industry's asset base increased to Rs 22.23 lakh crore in October in spite of a heavy correction in the domestic ...
What top 5 money managers bought and sold in February  Economic TimesFebruary was the fourth consecutive month of decline in net investment into equity mutual funds.
How stocks picked by mutual funds over 2014 to 2017 have performed  Economic TimesWhile the most wanted stocks of 2014 and 2015 have done well, the recent picks have disappointed.
Mutual Funds increase holding in ‘attractively valued’ oil & gas stocks  Economic TimesMUMBAI: Mutual funds have been adding shares of oil and gas companies such as GAIL, HPCL, BPCL and ONGC over the last few months, encouraged by ...
Mutual funds may need smart bets on smallcap stocks to beat ETF show  Economic TimesSmallcap stocks could see up to ₹1 lakh cr inflow as fund managers look for potential winners: Analysts.
Here are 30 stocks that fund managers bought & sold in February  Moneycontrol.comEven the month of February witnessed the lowest inflow in equity mutual funds in the last 2 years. Only Rs 5122 crore of *fresh* inflows took place in equity funds.
What top mutual funds bought and sold last month  LivemintMumbai: Inflows into Indian equity mutual funds in January were the smallest in two years as heightened market volatility and political uncertainty cooled ...
Why it is a bad idea to always look for outperformers while investing in mutual funds  Economic TimesOne of the most important features that any investor, wealth adviser or anyone in the financial media looks for in an investment product is its track record in ...
Quantum Mutual Fund uses cash pile to buy stocks cheap  Economic TimesQuantum Long Term Equity Value Fund, where value investing is the pronounced fund allocation theme, has brought down the level of cash at its plan to the ...
What India’s top three mutual funds bought and sold in February  BusinessLineInflows into Indian equity mutual funds in February were the smallest in more than two years as savers held back investments amid market volatility and ...
Mutual funds' exposure to banks hits 3-month low of Rs 1.88 lakh crore in Sept  Economic TimesMutual funds' holding of banking stocks declined by over Rs 21,600 crore to Rs 1.88 lakh crore in September, driven by the correction in equity markets.
Three large mutual funds opposed to L&T’s takeover of Mindtree  Economic TimesMUMBAI: Three large mutual funds holding shares of Mindtree are opposed to L&T's hostile takeover attempt of the mid-sized software company.
When should you sell your mutual fund schemes? - Stocks and equity mutual funds are different  Economic TimesInvesting in an individual stock and equity mutual fund scheme is different. You must look at various parameters like key ratios while investing in a stock. Hence ...
Fund managers ready to go shopping after sharp correction in stocks  Moneycontrol.comDomestic fund managers are capitalising on the market fall and buying shares as they feel the valuations have become attractive after a sharp correction in the ...
How income from stocks and mutual funds are taxed for an individual  Moneycontrol.comCapital gains from transfer of unlisted share are considered as STCG where period of holding is less than or equal to 24 months, and LTCG when holding period ...
Is it a good time to invest in small-cap mutual fund schemes?  Economic TimesDespite the slide in the Nifty Smallcap100 index, fund houses seem to be placing faith in small-cap funds again. Should investors take the cue?
Why stock market volatility is beneficial for mutual fund SIP investors  Economic TimesWhile investing through systematic investment plans, you make more money precisely because the markets are facing volatility.
How to handle death inside a joint investment account  MoneySenseQ. My father had two investment accounts open at a major bank, both non-registered, and held jointly with rights of survivorship (JWROS) by him, my mom and ...
Why stopping mutual fund SIPs when stock market falls can jeopardise your financial goals  Economic TimesThe 806-point drop in the Sensex on Oct 4 was the fifth biggest single day loss in the past five years.
Why your core equity portfolio should be in index mutual funds  Economic TimesInvestors flock to the performing fund “after” it has beaten the index. Fund selection is not an exact science, and there will be hits and misses.
Should you shift from large-cap mutual funds to index funds?  Economic TimesThe index fund category of mutual fund schemes is slowly gaining traction among investors. The fortunes of index funds are changing as not only are they being ...
Shall I buy the HDFC AMC stock or mutual fund?  LivemintThe HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd stock closed 65% up on the first day of listing over its IPO price of ₹ 1,100 per share. Investors who sold on day one, saw ...
What India's top three MFs bought and sold in January  Economic TimesStock funds took in a net Rs 6160 crore, the least since January 2017.
Mutual funds garner over Rs 65,000 crore in Jan  Economic TimesMUMBAI: The mutual fund industry added assets worth Rs 65,439 crore in January 2019, taking total assets under management to Rs 23.37 lakh crore.
Sebi seeks to make mutual funds' valuation process fairer  Economic TimesThe Sebi board approved easing of norms for raising of funds through instruments like real estate and infrastructure investment trusts.
Gold, mutual funds, equity - where to invest in 2019?  Moneycontrol.comAs we enter 2019, the question on everyone's mind is: can we say goodbye to market volatility that 2018 unleashed upon us? The answer may not be that simple ...
These are fertile grounds for long-term stock pickers, says Samir Rachh of Reliance Mutual Fund  Economic TimesSmall cap funds are going through a rough patch after a bull run in 2017. etmutualfunds.com spoke to Samir Rachh, fund manager, Reliance Small Cap Fund, ...
Quant-based mutual fund schemes are coming. Should you invest?  Economic TimesMany mutual fund advisors believe quant-based mutual funds are the future of the Indian mutual fund industry.
Are mid and small-cap mutual funds holding too many illiquid stocks?  Economic TimesIf your fund has too many illiquid stocks in its portfolio, it could really leave you in a spot.
10 small equity mutual funds that have given very good risk-adjusted returns  Economic TimesMany small-sized funds have delivered handsome risk-adjusted returns. Find out why you should not ignore them.
Sebi issues new format for mutual funds' monthly report  Economic TimesFrom April 2019 onwards, AMCs will have to submit the MCR to Sebi in the new format by the third working day of each month.
Best small cap mutual funds to invest in 2019  Economic TimesHere is the monthly update on our recommended small cap mutual fund schemes. We are happy to inform you that there are no changes in the recommendation ...
Is it time to invest in mid cap and small cap mutual fund schemes?  Economic TimesMany market pundits believe this is the right time to enter in small cap and mid cap segments.
Mutual fund investing for the conservative: Should you stick to largecap funds only?  Moneycontrol.comFinancial planners advocate investing in equity mutual funds to beat inflation and build a corpus that will cater to one's future needs, even if one is a conservative ...
How your mutual funds played the balancing act during stocks crash  Economic TimesAs with market cap allocations, equity funds seem to be maintaining their sectoral exposures.
New stock ideas boost equity mutual fund portfolios  LivemintThe sharp spurt in assets under management (AUM) in mutual funds in recent years appears to have compelled fund managers to venture out of their comfort ...
Why HDFC Bank stock is among the top picks of mutual funds  Business TodayPrivate sector lender HDFC Bank, the third-largest Indian firm by market capitalisation, is among the favourite stocks in the portfolios of mutual funds. Despite ...
The dangers of high mutual fund inflows  LivemintMutual funds have put ₹2.4 trillion into markets in the last two years.Equity mutual funds receive ₹8000 crore monthly through SIPs.
Top fund houses are busy lapping up PSUs; what’s behind this new-found love  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: India's top three mutual funds, which manage over Rs 9 lakh crore in debt and equity assets, added a number of PSU stocks to their schemes in ...
From Axis to ICICI: Mutual funds lap up private bank stocks ahead of rally  Business StandardDomestic money managers aggressively bought shares of private sector banks in February. Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank were the two most-bought ...
These stocks see mutual fund inflows for 8th straight quarter; are they worth a look?  Economic TimesAt least 20 listed stocks on the BSE have been major beneficiaries.
Mutual fund houses push sell button on auto and construction sectors  BusinessLineBut stock up on IT scrips amid redemption pressure.
Picking the best mutual fund: Are past returns relevant after re-categorisation?  Moneycontrol.comJuzer Gabajiwala. Investors always give a lot of weight to the past performance of returns. In fact, most decisions are always made on the basis of returns.
Fund managers raised stake in 194 stocks in Dec quarter. Is it a good idea to follow them?  Moneycontrol.comFund managers raised stake in as many as 194 companies in the December quarter as compared to the previous quarter. Stocks of some these companies have ...
Planning To Invest Your Money? Here's A Beginner's Guide  NDTV NewsInvestment Tips For Beginners: One of the basic rules of investing is to start early so that time works in favour, experts suggest.
Mutual funds that destroyed most investor wealth in the September selloff  Economic TimesThe recent selloff in the stock market has raised fears of a rush for redemption in mutual funds.​
How do mutual funds help you to invest better?  Moneycontrol.comMutual funds can provide you products that can meet your financial goals with relatively lesser risk.
Top mutual funds still have Rs 8,650 crore exposure to DHFL & four group entities  Economic TimesAs skeletons tumble out one after another from the closets of highly leveraged companies, domestic mutual funds with exposure to such entities are finding ...
Can a US citizen invest in mutual funds in India?  Economic TimesYes, a US citizen can invest in mutual funds and other financial products such as NRI fixed deposits, stocks and more, subject to prescribed regulations.
MFs bought select IT, bank stocks in Jan ahead of Budget, May polls  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: Mutual funds were seen churning their portfolios in information technology, consumption and private banking sectors during the month gone by, ...
Year-end special: Evergreen equity mutual funds with 10-year rolling return of over 15%  Economic TimesIndian stock market had a volatile year in 2018. Most equity mutual fund schemes have disappointed investors, with low or even negative returns.
At least 100 MF schemes own these stocks; that should mean something, right?  Economic TimesDomestic institutional investors have become one of the key market drivers in recent years.
Funds lap up select PSU stocks on valuation comfort  Economic TimesHere are five PSU stocks which have got large amount of buying from fund managers in Feb.

Traders, Defend Against the Dreaded Death Spiral.

It has often been said that there is only two... Read More

The Stock Market - How Just One Question Will Tell You All You Need To Know About Your Stock Broker

Last time we looked at the real performance of the... Read More

Your Job

There are so many kinds of work that needs to... Read More

Buy Low - Sell High

Now where have I heard that before? I know. It... Read More

The Stock Market is a Roller Coaster: Prepare for the Ups and Downs

IT'S REMINISCENT OF THE OLD children's tale about an old... Read More

A Penny for Your Stocks

According to Investopedia Inc. the penny stock market has seen... Read More

The Secret Art of Backtesting

If you have not back tested your trading system, you... Read More

9 Deadly Trading Mistakes!

The following are a list of nine things you want... Read More

Robert Rodriguez Weathers the Stock Market

Robert Rodriguez likes to buy stocks at their lows. When... Read More

What Can Model Airplanes Teach You About Trading?

I was devastated!I just couldn't believe it. I was 10... Read More

Index Fund Trading Using Technical Analysis and Swing Trading Strategies

Index Fund Trading can be one of the most profitable...or... Read More

Dont Lose All Your Money

That sounds like good advice doesn't it? Don't lose all... Read More

Stock Loans

Hedge current portfolio positions and gain access to capital resources... Read More

Size Counts!

What the heck am I talking about?It is often said... Read More

Nest Eggs and Omelets

Do you have a nest egg? You know, a place... Read More

Time Out

Are you paying any attention to your retirement savings? Do... Read More

Mutual Fund Honor Roll ? Buy High, Sell Low by Chasing Performance

Buy high and sell low -- It's not a typo.Millions... Read More

No Load Mutual Funds: Investment Hype vs. Investment Help

With the internet such a huge part of our daily... Read More

Trend Trading - Trading Stocks Using Technical Analysis and Swing Trading Strategies

Peter is a professional trader, Paul is not. Peter has... Read More

What the Hell is a Stock option?

A 'stock option' is a contract between two parties giving... Read More

What the SEC Really Thinks About Mutual Funds!

Let's go into the details of why non-indexed mutual funds... Read More

Your Trading Objective: Why is that so Important?

You've decided to try your luck at trading stocks or... Read More

Market Globalization

Just 30 years ago the stock market was a shadow... Read More

Fake Money

Reach in your pocket and take out that big roll... Read More

More Window Dressing

Two weeks ago I wrote about what the Securities and... Read More