Jack and Jill

Jack and Jill went up the hill to fetch a bucket of ?money. Money? They are continuing to fill their bucket with stocks without any consideration to the value of these equities. They are not worried at all as they are buying "safe" mutual funds.

Everyone knows mutual funds are safe. Jack and Jill know they don't know how to pick good stocks so they leave that to the fund manager. He is an expert.

When you look at the long term record of 99% of the mutual funds you will see that expertise has been sadly lacking. I hate to remind you of the 2000 to 2003 period, but I must. In fact I must tell you it is going to happen again. Now you want to know when?.and so do I.

And that is the problem with almost every fund manager. As long as the market is going up they can't do much damage to your account, but when it rolls over and heads down they have no idea how to invest when a bear market is in progress. Not a single one of them will acknowledge that cash is a position.

Cash is a position? They are in shock. Of course they are. If brokerage customers put their money in a money market account while the market is falling it means they do not make any commission at all and if they recommend this to their customers the brokerage manager will fire them because he won't make any money either. "Keep your customers fully invested or I'll show you the door" is the manager's comment.

You must learn when to sell. Any fool can buy, but it is the wise man who knows when to sell. To see the condition of the overall market one of the best indicators is the SP500 Index. Your broker compares everything he does with the SP500 because it is a broad base of 500 stocks that are widely traded.

The finest indicator is the SP500 Index. Draw a 40-week chart of the closing prices. If you don't know how ask your broker. He will tell you. Write it down and save it. It is very simple. Have him set up a 40-week Simple Moving Average to appear on that chart. Look at 5 years worth of prices. Immediately you will see that if you are in the market while the 40-week MA is going up you are making money and if you are out of all your positions while the index average is going down you will not lose money. It doesn't get any easier that that.

Jack and Jill can fill their pail as the market is going up and need not spill their accumulation while they walk confidently down the hill holding their bucket full of cash not equities.

Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

In The News:

Here's a look at the mutual fund favourites in May  MoneycontrolThe second month of FY19-20 saw a notable change in the sector and stock allocation from the top 20 mutual fund houses. On a month-on-month basis, MFs ...
Here's equity mutual funds' top sectoral picks in past decade  BusinessLineThis race chart portrays the top 10 sectors preferred by the equity mutual funds. Banks, finance, software, consumer non-durables, petroleum products, pharma, ...
What India's top three mutual funds bought and sold in May  LivemintInflows into Indian equity mutual funds in May rebounded from the smallest in 31 months as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's comfortable electoral win spurred ...
Here are top 10 large, mid & small-cap stocks that MFs bought and sold in May  MoneycontrolAmong largecaps, Vodafone Idea, DLF, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Life Insurance and Piramal Enterprises witnessed highest buying during May 2019.
ITR filing: Income tax department makes disclosing LTCG from stocks, equity mutual funds simpler  LivemintThe Finance Bill 2018 reintroduced tax on LTCG made from listed shares and equity-oriented mutual fund.You only need to disclose the total LTCG from ...
Quantum Mutual Fund launches ESG Equity Fund  Economic TimesThe Quantum India ESG Equity Fund (QESG) will invest primarily in stocks of Indian companies.
Time to move your large-cap portfolio to passive funds  Moneycontrol.comOf 29 large-cap schemes, only three outperformed their respective benchmark indices.
'It's time to take your money out of stocks': India's top insurer to investors  Livemint'It's time to take some money out of equities because valuations are looking stretched,' Gopikrishna Shenoy, SBI Life Insurance.SBI Life expects earnings at ...
Invest in a thematic mutual fund only if you’re convinced about the sector’s growth  LivemintOverall, about 55% of your portfolio is going to a diversified set of stocks.Thematic funds investment in a long-term portfolio is not a good option.
Actively-managed large cap mutual funds poised for a comeback  Economic TimesDefying predictions of their imminent irrelevance, some actively-managed large cap mutual fund schemes have bounced back to the top of the return chart.
Stocks to buy: 12 companies loved by both hedge funds, mutual funds  Business InsiderGoldman Sachs ran an analysis and found that the stocks most simultaneously popular with both hedge funds and mutual funds have outperformed the broader ...
Over diversification in investing tends to reduce returns: Here's why  Economic TimesInvesting in too many products, whether in stocks or MFs, shows the investor is not thinking hard enough.
First-time investors can look at these mutual funds for long term  Economic TimesInvestors, who were waiting on the sidelines for the uncertainty to recede, are now looking to deploy their cash. But, valuations remain steep.
Consider investing in direct stocks only if you can monitor portfolio proactively  LivemintDirect stocks can be considered if you have the ability to do research to identify the stocks to be bought as well as to be sold.You should be revisiting your ...
A look at mistakes committed by investors of equity mutual fund schemes  Moneycontrol.comBalwant Jain. The interest of investors has been shifting from direct equity investing to equity mutual funds over a few years. Though this is a welcome trend, ...
Should I add more schemes to my mutual fund portfolio?  Economic TimesI have recently started investing in mutual funds. I have invested in four schemes in February 2019. I just wanted to run them by you to see if I have selected the ...
Flows into mutual funds revive in May as Modi win seems to spur risk demand  LivemintFlows into Indian equity mutual funds in May rebounded from the smallest in 31 months as Prime Minister Narendra Modi's comfortable electoral win spurred ...
WRAP: What is prompting AMCs to turn to ESG Funds?  MoneycontrolSince inception (Jan 1991), SBI's ESG Fund has delivered 133.36 percent returns. As on April 30, AUM stood at Rs 2312 crore.
Mid, small caps offer opportunities, but hold stocks for at least a year  Business StandardAs market pundits had predicted, the stock market rally has become broader after the Lok Sabha elections ushered in a stable government. And the positive ...
As crisis deepens, here's what investors should do with NBFC stocks  MoneycontrolThe recent default by DHFL on interest payment to its debenture-holders followed by its rating downgrade by ICRA and CRISIL has raised *fresh* concerns on ...
Top fund houses wagered on many contra bets this May  Economic TimesTop domestic fund houses took note of the political stability post-election results and lapped up shares in many perceptibly contrarian bets in May, hoping for a ...
Impact of SEBI’s crackdown on mutual fund fees—A case study  Moneycontrol.comShreesh Biradar. For Indians, the best way to earn returns on savings was either investing in real estate or buying gold. The millennials are changing trends in ...
ITR Filing: From mutual funds to FDs, here’s how income from your favourite investments is taxed  The Financial ExpressFiling income tax return? Here's a ready reckoner about how returns on investments made in shares, mutual funds, FDs, gold and real estate are taxed.
Modi government's 2nd term: Where to invest in stock market now?  Economic TimesThe return of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister has pumped adrenaline into the stock market. As it became clear on Thursday that the BJP will get a clear ...
ETF Securities Australia launches first Indian ETF in tie-up with Reliance Nippon Life AMC  MoneycontrolETF Securities June 20 launched the first Indian ETF in Australia, and Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd (RNAM) has entered into an arrangement ...
10 NBFC stocks that have fared well despite crisis in the sector  Economic TimesNot all NBFC stocks fared poorly. Here are 10 stocks that have given extraordinary returns in the past year.
Should you invest in the DSP Quant Fund NFO?  LivemintDSP Quant Fund to select stocks based on pre-determined rules to eliminate bias.The NFO of DSP Quant Fund will remain open till 3 June.
Modi 2.0: Here are top stocks picks from four brokerages  LivemintNew Delhi: Lok Sabha election was one of the most awaited events for this year. After one and half months of voting across the country, results are finally out and ...
'Nifty shouldn't go below 11,000 anytime soon; avoid debt funds for now'  MoneycontrolEven from an FII point of view, the incremental flows may find favour in India than in China. So the potential for a much larger FII allocation definitely exists, said ...
Under Modi 2.0, a new beginning likely for stocks, mutual funds and bond market  Zee BusinessModi 2.0 has raised hopes that the issues faced by the economy will be tackled in a firm and prudent way. Get more India News and Business News on Zee ...
D-Street’s mandate not clear yet, best to stagger your bets: Experts  Economic TimesRajesh Cheruvu, WGC Wealth, expects Sensex and Nifty to correct up to 5 per cent immediately.
Top 20 under-owned stocks by FIIs and MFs as of Q4: do you own any?  Moneycontrol.comExperts are of the view that investors should not worry too much on under-ownership of stocks by FIIs as many times it offers potential opportunity for them to top ...
Modi 2.0 portfolio: Here's how to allocate Rs 10 lakh for next five years  Moneycontrol.comThe landmark victory not only suggests continuity of reforms but also brings an end to political uncertainty, suggest experts. The climate is just about right for ...
Avoid auto, FMCG and commodity driven plays for now: Sanctum Wealth  MoneycontrolWe'd generally avoid FMCG on valuation. Also, we would avoid autos until clarity on a turnaround emerges, and also avoid commodity driven plays, Sunil ...
The next bear market could be unusually severe for stock investors  MarketWatchIt's not the price you sell at that matters most; it's the price you paid.
Beaten-down midcaps could be on their way out of the woods  Economic TimesBattered mid-cap stocks may attract investors once again now that their valuations are lower and amid expectations of more flows into domestic mutual funds if ...
IDFC Mutual Fund opens Focused Equity Fund for lumpsum investment  Economic TimesIDFC Mutual Fund announced the removal of restriction of Rs 2 lakh per transaction in IDFC Focused Equity Fund, effective from May 17. The IDFC Focused ...
Stock Market Investment: 7 investment lessons from the Game of Thrones  The Financial ExpressIn their quest for the Iron Throne, The Game of Thrones characters taught us a thing or two about investments. Here are 7 insights to help you in your investment ...
5 Top-of-the-Line T. Rowe Price Mutual Funds  Kiplinger's Personal FinanceT. Rowe Price mutual funds are a rarity in that they have found success across a wide range of strategies. Here are five of their best offerings.
Is Wells Fargo Premier Large Company Growth R6 (EKJFX) a Strong Mutual Fund Pick Right Now?  NasdaqIf you've been stuck searching for Large Cap Growth funds, consider Wells Fargo Premier Large Company Growth R6 (EKJFX) as a possibility. EKJFX holds a ...
Animation: Understanding the Basics of the Stock Market  Visual CapitalistThis video highlights the basics of the stock market, how they work, and also the history of how the first markets got started.
A $13 billion fund makes contrarian bet on India consumer stocks  LivemintMumbai: Flagging Indian sales of products like toothpaste and hair oil have been a drag on the share prices of the nation's consumer goods makers, but each ...
Putting your mutual fund return in perspective  Dalal Street Investment JournalThe first question that comes to the mind of an investor while investing in any asset is the return it gives. So if you are investing in a mutual fund then you would ...
Is Franklin DynaTech Adviser (FDYZX) a Strong Mutual Fund Pick Right Now?  NasdaqThere are plenty of choices in the Sector - Tech category, but where should you start your research? Well, one fund that might be worth investigating is Franklin ...
How DHFL default grade hurts your mutual fund returns - Mounting trouble  Economic TimesAfter debt-laden mortgage lender Dewan Housing Finance (DHFL) failed to pay on its bonds on Tuesday, net asset values (NAVs) of several debt funds ...
Neil Woodford's Fall Holds Lessons for Investors Everywhere  BloombergThe crisis at Woodford Equity Income holds lessons for investors everywhere.
Finance Ministry to launch ETF with bank stocks, fin institutions this fiscal  LivemintNew Delhi: The finance ministry is planning to launch an exchange traded fund (ETF) consisting of stocks of PSU banks and financial institutions this fiscal and ...
Sensex stocks vs Sensex index mutual fund: 5 things to know  Times NowStock market investing has garnered numerous eyeballs over the years due to the lucrative returns, high liquidity, relatively lower tax rates on long-term capital ...
As market prepares for Modi 2.0, here are 13 stocks to invest in for five years  Moneycontrol.comEarly trends put NDA in a comfortable position to form the government that has, to an extent, already been factored by the market after exit polls.
Yes Bank likely to exit asset management business  Economic TimesMumbai: Yes Bank, which is currently redrawing its strategic roadmap under new chief executive Ravneet Gill, is likely to exit the asset management business as ...
Reliance Capital to exit MF biz, use funds to cut debt  Economic TimesMumbai: Reliance Capital, the financial services business of the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani group (ADAG), has decided to exit mutual funds by selling its entire ...
What to buy now? Brokerages pitch over 30 stocks to ride Modi 2.0 wave  Moneycontrol.comWith the Modi government back in the saddle, the focus of the market will shift to the growth cycle, with RBI expected to be more accommodative.
PM Modi announces his diversified portfolio; here’s how you can create yours on D-Street  Economic TimesA diversified investment portfolio can protect your wealth during volatile times on D-Street.
7 Smart Mutual Funds for Income Investing | Dividends  U.S. News & World ReportThese funds offer management and strategy rather than following a specific index.
After Modi, another ‘M’ readies to spin wealth on D-Street: Midcaps  Economic TimesNEW DELHI: The euphoria over Modi's landslide election victory has barely died, Dalal Street has shifted its obsession to a different 'M', midcaps. The latest new ...
What to Do With an Inheritance  The Motley FoolToo many people who inherit a lump sum of cash or some real estate end up in poor financial shape after just two years. Here's how to not blow an inheritance.
In Sequoia Fund Lawsuit, Documented Process Saves Plan Fiduciaries  PLANSPONSORA federal court found plan fiduciaries acted with loyalty and prudence, and that plaintiffs failed to show the failure to have an investment policy in place, standing ...
Top 10 stocks that mutual fund managers bought and sold in March 2019  Moneycontrol.comData for equity flows into mutual funds for March came as a breather after a weak February. An increase in net inflows in equity and income category led to the ...
Here are the mutual fund favourites in April  MoneycontrolMaximum month-on-month change in value was seen in TCS, ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
Stay away from stock tips  LivemintIf taming the stock market was easy, everyone would do it.Losing money in market is real and facing volatility is part of the deal.
What India's top three mutual funds bought and sold in March  Economic TimesIndias largest money manager held 1.5 trillion rupees in equities.
What top mutual funds bought and sold last month  LivemintMumbai: Inflows into Indian equity mutual funds in January were the smallest in two years as heightened market volatility and political uncertainty cooled ...
Is your mutual fund buying or selling stocks too much?  LivemintWhen a fund manager buys and sells far too often, there is a problem.A turnover ratio measures the extent to which a fund manager churns her portfolio.
MF holdings of auto stocks at record low: Motilal Oswal study  BusinessLineMutual funds' holdings of auto sector stocks stood at a record low in April, finds a study by broking house Motilal Oswal Securities. The weightage of the auto ...
Mutual funds bet big on these 30 stocks in November; do you own any?  Moneycontrol.comThe Indian equity market rose about 5 percent in November but what was more heartening to see was inflows into mutual funds. Investors pumped Rs 1.4 lakh ...
Govt increases limit to disclose investment in stocks, mutual funds for employees  Moneycontrol.com*Service* rules say no government servant shall speculate in any stock, share or other investment.
I want to invest Rs 1 crore in stocks and mutual funds for 5 years. How should I invest?  Economic TimesYou may consider the following asset allocation: 40% in large-caps; 40% in large and mid-cap, or multi-caps; and remaining 20% in mid- and small-cap funds.
What India's top three mutual funds bought and sold in February  LivemintMUMBAI: Inflows into Indian equity mutual funds in February were the smallest in more than two years as savers held back investments amid market volatility ...
How concentrated is your mutual fund portfolio?  LivemintA concentrated portfolio can backfire badly if the fund manager's strategy goes wrong.A portfolio with few stocks can fall sharply if share prices of most stocks in ...
A young investor’s guide to mutual funds  Economic TimesMany young investors, who are barely a year or two old in their career, are eager to start investing in mutual funds. ETMutualFunds.com receive many queries on ...
Can mutual funds give multibagger returns like stocks?  Economic TimesStocks can be multibaggers. They can offer extraordinary returns in a very short period. Can mutual funds ever do that? This was a question thrown at Rajeev ...
Mutual funds sell several blue chips stocks, buy mid-caps in March  Business StandardDomestic money managers were seen pruning their holdings in several blue-chip stocks, including Reliance Industries (RIL) and Housing Development Finance ...
7 stocks most favoured by mutual funds over last one year  Economic TimesAs the markets hit a speed bump, stocks favoured by mutual funds appear to be safer bets.
Should you invest in international mutual funds?  LivemintIf you were to sort all equity mutual funds available for retail investment by their one-year performance, international funds would come on top. The best ...
Active mutual funds fail to reflect index gains  Economic TimesThe Nifty, which has hit all-time highs for the second time in April, has advanced 12% in the last one year. But these gains are yet to reflect in many mutual funds' ...
Stick to MFs if you lack knowledge on stocks  LivemintWhile equity is surely the way going forward considering your age and the financial goals, how you buy in equity is important.Direct stocks work very well if done ...
The dangers of high mutual fund inflows  LivemintMutual funds have put ₹2.4 trillion into markets in the last two years.Equity mutual funds receive ₹8000 crore monthly through SIPs.
How income from stocks and mutual funds are taxed for an individual  Moneycontrol.comCapital gains from transfer of unlisted share are considered as STCG where period of holding is less than or equal to 24 months, and LTCG when holding period ...
Why your core equity portfolio should be in index mutual funds  Economic TimesInvestors flock to the performing fund “after” it has beaten the index. Fund selection is not an exact science, and there will be hits and misses.
Stocks vs Mutual Funds: Which is a Better Option to Invest?  EntrepreneurStocks and Mutual Funds have their own set of hiccups, which are better to know before making your investments.
Investment limits Sebi prescribes for mutual funds  LivemintDid you know that there are guard rails that the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has put in place to protect you from the risks of over-exposure to a ...
Here are a few mutual funds that stocked up on YES Bank in Q4FY19  Business StandardShares of YES Bank tanked 30 per cent in trade on Tuesday, after the bank reported a massive Rs 1,507 crore loss in the fourth quarter of financial year 2018-19 ...
Top 30 stocks that fund managers bought & sold in March; do you own any?  Moneycontrol.comTop 30 stocks which witnessed strong buying according to change in value include names like NTPC, ICICI Prudential, L&T, SBI Life, SBI, Jubilant Food, Maruti, ...
What top 5 money managers bought and sold in February  Economic TimesFebruary was the fourth consecutive month of decline in net investment into equity mutual funds.
What to do if your mutual fund scheme earns more return than your investment  Economic TimesAre the returns shown in your mutual fund account statement same as the returns delivered by your fund? It is quite likely that you might have earned less than ...
Mutual funds shooting themselves in the foot?  Economic TimesWhat if banks take a leaf out of Kotak and HDFC Mutual Funds' decision to direct investors to come another day to get their money instead of paying them on the ...
Mutual Funds increase holding in ‘attractively valued’ oil & gas stocks  Economic TimesMUMBAI: Mutual funds have been adding shares of oil and gas companies such as GAIL, HPCL, BPCL and ONGC over the last few months, encouraged by ...
Spending time in stock market is must for wealth creation: Chandresh K Nigam, Axis Mutual Fund  Economic TimesInvestors make the mistake of projecting recent market performance onto the future and follow the market.
Here are 30 stocks that fund managers bought & sold in February  Moneycontrol.comEven the month of February witnessed the lowest inflow in equity mutual funds in the last 2 years. Only Rs 5122 crore of *fresh* inflows took place in equity funds.
Top 8 most common mutual fund investing mistakes and how to avoid them  Business StandardMutual funds garnered Rs 8,022 crore of its assets by way of SIPs in December 2018, 29 per cent higher than the previous year | Illustration: Binay Sinha ...
Fund managers ready to go shopping after sharp correction in stocks  Moneycontrol.comDomestic fund managers are capitalising on the market fall and buying shares as they feel the valuations have become attractive after a sharp correction in the ...
Investment in equity MFs drops 35% to ₹1.11 lakh crore in FY19  LivemintNEW DELHI: Investors pumped in more than ₹1.11 lakh crore in equity-oriented mutual fund (MF) schemes in 2018-19, a decline of 35 per cent compared to ...
Common investment mistakes to avoid  LivemintRemember, time in the market is key, so don't get affected by volatile conditions.Here are some common mistakes you should avoid while investing.
Here’s a better tool to judge mutual fund performance than simple 1-year, 3-year returns  Economic TimesOne invests in mutual funds to earn potentially higher returns than those in traditional investment products, and I'm sure everyone looks at the one-year, ...
Diversify equity portfolio with international funds  Economic TimesAs a part of diversifying your equity portfolio, wealth managers believe investors should diversify geographically using mutual funds. They can do this by ...
27-year-old rule changed: Disclosure limit on MF, stock investment up for bureaucrats  Economic TimesGroup A and B officials had to intimate government if total transaction in shares or MFs exceeded Rs 50K.
Why do wealth managers recommend multi cap mutual funds?  Economic TimesMany wealth managers believe multi-cap funds are a good starting point for long-term investors, specially those using SIPs for wealth creation.
From Axis to ICICI: Mutual funds lap up private bank stocks ahead of rally  Business StandardDomestic money managers aggressively bought shares of private sector banks in February. Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank were the two most-bought ...
Investing in mutual funds? Size of fund doesn't matter  Economic TimesA bigger MF is not always a better fund. If you come across a well-performing small fund, invest in it.
Hot and Cold Stocks of Mutual Funds in April 2019  MoneylifeIn April 2019, Larsen & Toubro and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation(HPCL) were the most preferred stocks of Indian mutual funds.

Gold Fever

Right now there doesn't seem to be any "gold fever".... Read More

Selling

The stock market has been going up for more than... Read More

Lifestyle Funds Provide Greater Security?

With the stock market stubbornly refusing to settle down and... Read More

Bad News is Good News

For weeks, no, months we have been bombarded with nothing... Read More

The Elephant

Four blind men were asked to give a description of... Read More

How to Short Stocks? How to Make Money when Your Stocks Go Down by Shorting

The stock market can present you with a lot of... Read More

E-mini Day Trading - Day Trading for Beginners - Stock Market Timing Software

I mean it when I say that. While plastic silverware... Read More

Oil Stocks As A Long Term Investment

The demand for world oil is increasing while world reserves... Read More

Overseas Investing: Going Against the Mainstream

TOO OFTEN, INVESTORS SIMPLY CHOOSE TO follow the crowd. This... Read More

The Secret to More Winning Trades is as Simple as Avoiding This Common Mistake

If you're a normal human being, your need to feel... Read More

How Commodity Trading Differs from Stock Trading

There are major differences between trading stocks and trading futures.... Read More

Series 7 Exam

What is the Series 7 Exam? If you... Read More

Overvalued & Underbought

With all the bad news that has been dumped upon... Read More

Successful Trading ? Establish Your Risk Level

Before you embark upon a journey of trading stocks or... Read More

Stock Market Insanity

Let's first define insanity. It is doing the same thing... Read More

War Market

There is no question that the stock market is being... Read More

The Stock Market - How Just One Question Will Tell You All You Need To Know About Your Stock Broker

Last time we looked at the real performance of the... Read More

Why Change Funds?

On November 17 I bought 7 different mutual funds and... Read More

Shorting Stocks ? The Basics, Part I of II

What does it mean to short a stock?This means that... Read More

Price to Earnings Ratio - P/E

After finding the price of a particular stock, usually the... Read More

Protectionism

First let's see what protectionism is. According to Mr. Webster... Read More

Stock Analysis

I receive emails from Morningstar. This company provides statistics and... Read More

Planning Your Dive and Diving Your Plan ? Trading!

A colleague of mine just returned from a scuba diving... Read More

Analyzing Growth Stocks: An Important Focus For Any Investor

Analyzing growth stocks is an important focus for any investor.... Read More

Online Investing & Stock & Share Trading: 4 Reasons Why Most Online Investors & Traders Go Broke

Are you attracted to the idea of being in control... Read More